re: Report: UK FTTH Would Cost $50BGummint forecasting is usually on the high side for big infrastructure projects. In the States, it helps the forecaster get a bigger budget approved and that gives them more people, power, and a parking spot in the shade.
re: Report: UK FTTH Would Cost $50BThere's no way it can cost this much. 20-25M UK households, aerial connections similar to East Coast USA but with higher density. Exactly why are they projecting costs higher than FiOS? It should be around $30B, and probably less.
re: Report: UK FTTH Would Cost $50BVZ's data here for FiOS isn't complete and is far from transparent. I perceive it as similar to the real estate industry's data (including support from the Fed) about how the housing price increases weren't a bubble and similar to the government's method to a gauge inflation. These things are far from arm's length nor are they independently audited in a manner to earn trust despite their claims otherwise.
re: Report: UK FTTH Would Cost $50BI think an accurate cost analysis would look at the suppliers accounts receivables (per FiOS orders exclusively), labor costs incl. benefits, pole replacement costs, backhaul costs, government graft, sales and marketing, etc., etc., etc. all without cross subsidies from the existing, legacy natural monopolies.
I wonder if the only way to truly determine these costs is to break out the fiber over builders into independently audited companies? Then one could determine trend lines for costs per access bit transported and costs per internet bit transported. Technology selection, the focus of the referenced article, probably is mostly significant in that it supports churn (as deployment nearly implies obsolescence.)
Until we have actuals it seems like Robert Moses giving pro forma projections to build infrastructure by presenting estimates like $32,456,717,812.26 which implies significance and precision for an unknown that doesn't really exist.
re: Report: UK FTTH Would Cost $50Brj is correct, of course. Implied by this, also, is a larger issue: no broad consensus on accepted benchmarks yet exists for FTTH cost factors, never mind for auditing purposes, that would otherwise serve as legitimate comparison points in these regards. The following article from Last Mile Magazine may not be a direct hit in answering these issues, but I found it both helpful and interesting, nonetheless:
FTTH Architectural Choices By Bhavani Rao | August 2008
re: Report: UK FTTH Would Cost $50BSeveral years ago BT made a presentation reporting that between 1/3 and 2/3 of their subscriber drop cables could not support VDSL. I wonder how much drop cable replacement is built in to the $9B VDSL figure?
Um... how about here? http://investor.verizon.com/
I wonder if the only way to truly determine these costs is to break out the fiber over builders into independently audited companies? Then one could determine trend lines for costs per access bit transported and costs per internet bit transported. Technology selection, the focus of the referenced article, probably is mostly significant in that it supports churn (as deployment nearly implies obsolescence.)
Until we have actuals it seems like Robert Moses giving pro forma projections to build infrastructure by presenting estimates like $32,456,717,812.26 which implies significance and precision for an unknown that doesn't really exist.
FTTH Architectural Choices
By Bhavani Rao | August 2008
http://www.lastmileonline.com/...