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twistedcopper 12/4/2012 | 7:30:48 PM
re: Report: Tellium Core Switch Takes Hold ranger,
how can you say that??? if TELM is generating a lot of cash from each customer that they win... they'll have a ton of market share in no time. i'd take RHK's word for it before yours... dana cooperson basically said tellium has the market to themselves... what part of that don't you understand? just wait and see.... according to my calculations, for every 2 customers the win, they get $1billion in back orders.... their revenue can excede cisco's by the end of next year, if not sooner. call me twisted, but the numbers say everything here! harry carr will be the next john chambers.
-twisted
opticalnutjob 12/4/2012 | 7:30:47 PM
re: Report: Tellium Core Switch Takes Hold twisted-
get real. i think tellium has a chance in their niche market (oc-48 switching), but let's not go overboard. a few more major wins like dynegy could make them the size of ciena in the next couple years, but not cisco. and definitely not within the next year. (btw, say "hi" to the old lucent gang for me... how're things going at tellium? drop me an e-mail when you have a minute.) :)
regards,
ONJ
nonobvious 12/4/2012 | 7:30:44 PM
re: Report: Tellium Core Switch Takes Hold I dont think Dynegy is going to buying many more optical switches now that its only bandwidth trading partner, Enron, is out of business.
Litewave 12/4/2012 | 7:30:43 PM
re: Report: Tellium Core Switch Takes Hold Wait a minute, am I the only one who's actually getting twistedcopper's sarcasm, or am I imagining it?

Tsk, tsk, RHK's not doing itself any favours with these funny-numbers games.
optigirl 12/4/2012 | 7:30:42 PM
re: Report: Tellium Core Switch Takes Hold Another deluded soul....

Have you considered counseling for your affliction?

A) TELM has one account buying the technology. ONE

B) The other customers that they have contracts with (and contract means nothing in the telecom world) are not deploying and have no plans to.

C) They have conceded a major portion of the market to Ciena with respect to Grooming switches, which is where the bulk of the dollars will be spent.

D) Lastly, Ciena has penetration into major accounts and has a much better balance sheet. Carriers like healthy vendors.

AND for the last time....

Believing what RHK says is tantamount to sitting up on Christmas eve waiting for the Fat Guy in the big red suit to come down the chimney.....

twistedcopper 12/4/2012 | 7:30:42 PM
re: Report: Tellium Core Switch Takes Hold did i come off as sarcastic? i'm not kidding... maybe nut job is right... i guess it's a bit ambitious to think that tellium could be the size of cisco in a year, but three years is realistic. tellium has three product lines and another on its way.... ciena only has one product and they have to sell a lot of it to a lot of customers to scramble for half the market. am i missing something? ciena has 19 customers and 46% of the market. tellium has two (and only one who has really spent much money) and they have 29% of the market... a couple more customers and they'll put everyone out of business. rhk should publish 2002 market share... then you'll see where things are headed. are they allowed to release those numbers early?
-twisted
boson3 12/4/2012 | 7:30:42 PM
re: Report: Tellium Core Switch Takes Hold I don't get the comparison between the Tellium and CoreDirector switches. CoreDirector does aggregation at granularities of OC 3, possibly lower.

The (newer) Tellium switch was designed to switch hundreds of OC 48 and 192 trunks.

They're just not the same product.
twistedcopper 12/4/2012 | 7:30:41 PM
re: Report: Tellium Core Switch Takes Hold optigirl,
please tell me you don't believe that. am i the only tellium supporter out here??? did anyone see this article:
http://www.lightreading.com/do...
tellium is the only company showing solid earnings. we're on fire!!! no other vendor is performing like tellium... i'm not an accountant, but shouldn't TELM's valuation be much higher? is anyone out there in finance? how do you give a company growing as fast as tellium a valuation under a billion dollars? let's be honest... TELM is grossly undervalued right now and this is a great buying opp!!!!!
TELM to 100!
-twisted
gea 12/4/2012 | 7:30:40 PM
re: Report: Tellium Core Switch Takes Hold Well, both extremes are pretty much missing the mark.

Tellium is a damned smart company, with smart people, that decided to hyper-focus on one niche, which I believe will expand rapidly some time after the recession lifts. In the technical fora they have taken a real lead, and understand where a switch such as theirs will fit in.
Comparisons with Ciena are probably misguided...a grooming cross-connect will work great at the edge-of-the-core, but once everything's routed into big fat OC-48c/192c pipes, its Tellium from there out.

The one disadvantage with tellium is the same as any one-product company, but remember this doesn't seem to have hurt Tellabs too much! Basically, for all-Ciena (or all-anybody) networks, the desire to be able to manage the entire network end-to-end will probably cause customers to want a Ciena core-OXC.

Hey waitaminute...anyone wanna lay odds on a company like Ciena trying to BUY Tellium a year from now?
gea 12/4/2012 | 7:30:39 PM
re: Report: Tellium Core Switch Takes Hold Good points from the bot a yuz (as we say in NYC).

First, I've probably been in more COs than most engineers on these message boards. Do you mean that because a Core Director is physically present in a CO means that there isn't necessarily any use for a Tellium switch? That's almost exactly like saying that the presence of broadband DCSs means you'll never see any wideband DCSs in the same CO. They serve different granularities, and depending on logically where in your network the traffic is, it makes sense to use one or the other.

Likewise with the Core Director vs the Aurora, or at least theoretically. Now I've never had my hands on the Core Director, but I have played with some of Tellium's gear. If the Tellium stuff scales better for large-granularitiy pipes then the Core Director, then the case is fairly clear (but remember, I did call Tellium's market a 'niche'). And by scales better, remember we're not just talking about # of ports and "bandwidth" (silicon that allows HUGE scaling is now off-the-shelf). We're talking basic issues of power, cost, and space.

The basic argument for a product like Tellium's, is that in some environments, subrate muxing and TDM will be a thing of the past, as networks go packet+optics. If that's the case, why pay any premium for STS-1 cross connection? (Well, I actually believe TDM will be around for quite a while, even if POS/EOS dominates the world, but that's a different matter!).

As for key differentiators, for O/E/O, one of the big keys will have to be SOFTWARE. If Tellium can pour its UNI/OIF/IETF leadership into its products, then it stands a good chance of dominating its market, which will continue to be a niche for a little while longer.

Look, I'm no true believer...Tellium ain't gonna be the next Cisco, but it could be the next Tellabs if it plays its cards right. But it also ain't a done deal. If the CD gives everything the Tellium boxes can, at the same price/cost/power per port, then Ciena's customers are going to buy Ciena, and others will toss a coin. That means tellium will have an uphill battle. But I think they have a real good shot.
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