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sgan201
sgan201
12/5/2012 | 4:09:12 AM
re: QOS Fees Could Change Everything
Steve,

Your assumption here is we will always build access network the same way and only RBOC and PTT can build the access network. If there is a paradigm change and your assumption no longer hold true, all bets are off.

Dreamer
stephencooke
stephencooke
12/5/2012 | 4:09:12 AM
re: QOS Fees Could Change Everything
Though I applaud those who maintain the ideology of a 'free' Internet I feel that reality has to come home at some point. While the Internet only carried file transfers, email, and websites the model at the time was sufficient and worked fine. With the advent of VOIP you are now stepping into the domain of, and taking significant revenue away from, some of the largest companies in the world.

If you feel that these companies should spend billions to upgrade their networks so that they can get zero return on investment...stay out of management. The carriers have plainly stated that they are not in the business of being 'dumb bit transporters'. You can argue this until you can't type anymore but those with the jurisdiction to make the decision have done so and the rest of us have to deal with it as fact.

So, given that RBOCS, PTT's, etc. have refused to lie down and give everyone free reign on their networks we see that they are going down the route of charging for performance. Is this a surprise? It shouldn't be. Instead of denying that this should happen the prudent way forward is to figure out how to help them make it happen in the best way possible so that everyone gets something from the pain that will occur in implementation.

Why is this happening? For those who have not had access to the telecom world for the last decade or so, carriers have been looking for the silver bullet technology to combine their multiple, disparate, non-mutually compatible networks onto. Recently they seem to have been forced to make that decision in favour of IP. They could have chosen IP long ago but they felt that it was never a telecom-quality technology. It still isn't. However, customers are voting with their feet (ie: are walking away from carriers) for it so their hands are being collectively forced.

The network on which the Internet was 'successful' is no longer the current network. As more services are kludged so they can be made to work over IP, the more the demands on the processing power of that network and access to that network are changing. Once the decision was made to put voice traffic, the life-blood of telcos, over the net, the end of 'free' Internet was in sight. If you take any set of huge multi-national, multi-billion dollar companies and tell them that their main revenue product is now to be given away for free, prepare for serious changes to the status quo.

There are two ways to look at this:

1) Aw CRAP, someone's traffic is going to get priority over my P2P video download...CRAP!!! or
2) This is a major opportunity to provide equipment and services to those huge companies.

Take your pick. Its an attitude thing.

Steve.
ip_power
ip_power
12/5/2012 | 4:09:11 AM
re: QOS Fees Could Change Everything
One of the arguements the RBOC make is that these other services will affect thier Video Deployment - This is simply because they will not follow that with has already been layed/proved out by many Rural ILEC - RBOC have to do it thier way.

The other arguement is these services are also offered by them and effects the RBOCs on ability to deliver a good quality service - again I reference the above.

Finally, I aggree - I have seen it first hand and while working for one, the Revenue is and has been handed to them for to long with no real competition.

This is the late 90's and early 2000 CLEC game that the RBOCs are trying to do once more. Make it hard - if not impossible for the compitition to compete. The US need so wake up and look at the rest of the world. Becuase we the users have and we are tired of it.

They need to Focus on the market that is really hurting them CELL and MSO. Most have the investment in the Cell side so that is hidden revenue that they also get interconnect T charges for (subsidized). So that leaves the MSO, this is like the play of Cisco and MS with Business VOIP, niether really wants to fight each other so go after the others.

This is a bunch of bull and I hope the FCC steps in and stays the course of IP services is nonregulated and can not in any way be filtered or limited.



alchemy
alchemy
12/5/2012 | 4:09:11 AM
re: QOS Fees Could Change Everything
DoTheMath writes:
I disagree. The RBOCs are fundamentally inefficient. Even today, after all their slimming down, what they do [network management and operations] can be done with one fifth or one tenth the number of people on their rolls.

The RBOCs and MSOs have that huge headcount because they have to make residential service calls and maintain their wireline access networks. Sure, you can streamline it some but a truck roll is going to cost the company $100. If you believe that a Google can sell stock to buy licensed spectrum, build a wireless access network, and offer residential triple play product that my techno-phobe mother can self-provision, I guess you should load up on Google stock since they will rule the world.

The bidding war for new RF spectrum is going to be huge. The RBOCs and MSOs are going to be bidding against the new generation disruptive technology companies. The name of the game is to sell services and you have to own your own access network to succeed. This QoS fee is a red herring since nobody is going to want some competitor access to their customers on an even QoS playing field.
DoTheMath
DoTheMath
12/5/2012 | 4:09:11 AM
re: QOS Fees Could Change Everything
Steve:
Aren't you making an assumption that the current level of fees the service providers are charging for internet access [both at the consumer level as well as at the level of web sites like Google] is insufficient to fund their investments.

I disagree. The RBOCs are fundamentally inefficient. Even today, after all their slimming down, what they do [network management and operations] can be done with one fifth or one tenth the number of people on their rolls. It can be seen in how Google/Yahoo kind of players conduct their services operations - and Google is even in the long-haul business now. So what the RBOCs are asking for is another way to charge for their inefficiency.

DoTheMath





stephencooke
stephencooke
12/5/2012 | 4:09:11 AM
re: QOS Fees Could Change Everything
Dreamer,

Good point. What a lot of people tend to forget is that big companies, when threatened, bring out a vast arsenal of weapons that have nothing to do with technology (eg: lobbyists, slow implementation of access agreements, frivilous lawsuits, etc.). Unless these new access providers have significant non-communications related revenue sources and an existing (or incredibly cheap lease) core network (eg: cable providers) that they can deploy in the fight it won't last long.

At the end of the day it may happen that some of the 'legacy' carriers die but I have serious doubts. Don't forget that people such as those on these boards are in the business of keeping them in business as there are big numbers involved. Unless they suddenly can't provide the cash to pay for technology that many of us would be happy to supply then I see changes but not binary levels (ie: they live or they die).

Steve.
sgan201
sgan201
12/5/2012 | 4:09:10 AM
re: QOS Fees Could Change Everything
1) QOS on WiFi 802.11/b/g was a big deal until peopel start seeing that 802.11n is going to deliver 100Mbps and more.

2) Access is all about cost. And, to have low cost, you need to have the volume. The largest access networks are being build now in India/China and other emerging countries. It is not in USA. So, if you to know and see what kind of next gen access network will be built, it will not be in USA. USA will be the follower.

3) So far, in emerging countries, for access, wireless is the only cost effective option.

Dreamer
TheMuffinMan
TheMuffinMan
12/5/2012 | 4:09:10 AM
re: QOS Fees Could Change Everything
QoS makes sense - for the operator, they get to differentiate their service thereby making incremental revenues, the end user gets a faster service, the service provider (being iTunes etc) sacrifices some margin but gets better access to their customers, and can also differentiate their revenues to their customers (click here, and for another 20 cents, we guarantee faster downloads!!).

This QoS fee is a red herring since nobody is going to want some competitor access to their customers on an even QoS playing field.

It won't be their compeditors, it will be their corporate customers, ie, eBay's or Google's, and interconnect agreements will take care of the inter-carrier $ just like they do today. Getting the technology to do it will take a bit more time, but it'll get there.

The bidding war for new RF spectrum is going to be huge. The RBOCs and MSOs are going to be bidding against the new generation disruptive technology companies. The name of the game is to sell services and you have to own your own access network to succeed.

I don't agree here, I doubt we'll see a re-run of the bubble period 3G spectrum prices, and as someone has already pointed out running your own access networks is a difficult thing that internet companies have no experience doing. The real name of the game is to sell compelling services and get someone to pay for the bit transport, which Apple etc have done very well so far. Its going to be a lot cheaper to sacrifice some margin to pay access providers than build your own access network.
stephencooke
stephencooke
12/5/2012 | 4:09:10 AM
re: QOS Fees Could Change Everything
DoTheMath,

Actually the point that I am making is that the fees that the RBOCs charge for Internet Access is not sufficient to make up for lost voice revenues via VOIP (from any carrier including themselves).

I don't think anyone would argue that the RBOCs are inefficient. However, if you feel that Google has a clue when it comes to being a regulated carrier, I strongly disagree. The long haul business is the easiest telecom business to get into. Local is the hardest. MCI did the long distance play and became one of the largest carriers incredibly quickly. They were never really able to penetrate the local in any significant way though they had a substantial revenue stream from the LD side.

Google is a big, relatively efficient machine, no argument, but their business does not charge consumers for essential services as regulated carriers do. That is a whole ballgame in itself that would require probably 10X the current staffing levels for customer service alone, not to mention E911, installation technicians, etc.

Could Google do it better? I would certainly hope so. I'm even sure that the RBOCs, if they were allowed to start from scratch, would be more efficient than they are now. Like I have said before, the RBOCs will fight the hard fight to survive and their resources go far beyond technical. These boards have been forecasting their demise for many years and they are still enormously powerful.

Steve.
paolo.franzoi
paolo.franzoi
12/5/2012 | 4:09:09 AM
re: QOS Fees Could Change Everything

Wireless will never have the fastest connection rates. At the end of the day, Shannon and Nyquist will prevent that. Fiber has the lowest noise and Copper has significantly lower noise. Physics is physics.

I think people misunderstand the whole QoS thing. Unless there is a way to control QoS and enable QoS, then premium services will ONLY be available to the local network provider. Unless there is control ALL packets will be marked as expedited. At that point, all QoS disolves. So, BellSouth is trying to promote a method that allows for new services. Nobody is going to crank down the Internet per se. But if you are paying good money for an application, you would like it to work. You would like it to work no matter how much porn your neighbor is downloading.

seven
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