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technonerd
technonerd
12/5/2012 | 1:53:56 AM
re: Pradeep Sindhu, Juniper Networks
Hmmm... I'm being chided for mentioning both analog and digital. Obviously I should just cut my losses.
No, you should stay in the ring. Yes, of course the PSTN delivers bits. But its not about the quantity of bits, it's about the quality and availability. I am just mystified by how the data people cannot seem to get it through their skulls that when you run a landline switched voice service, all you really sell is uptime and QoS. And when it comes to capital spending, you want stuff that works forever and is fully backward compatible whenever possible.

I would submit that, until the data geeks quit attacking the QoS and availability of the PSTN, they will be playing around the edges of what otherwise is a huge market. It would also help if they actually got serious about video conferencing.


Look, whatever you want to call it, I want to be able to make a phone call for less. For the same call, the VoIP call is cheaper than the PSTN call.
The call's price is lower, but its cost is not lower. Pricing is a regulatory issue.


Yes, ok, I sacrifice QoS, but then again, I'm happy to sacrifice it if my call isn't life-threatening.
Argggggggh! Tony, what is it about you data geeks that makes you think you can sell your products by promising a lower quality of service for chrissakes? Sheesh!
Tony Li
Tony Li
12/5/2012 | 1:53:56 AM
re: Pradeep Sindhu, Juniper Networks

Tony, that is how real people do it.

------------


Technonerd,

You're aruging about the startup cost. Fair. Again, let me point you to the folks who already have Internet access and can download a softphone for VoIP. Fact: you can get into VoIP these days for not much more than the cost of a headset. Yes, startup costs will deter some. But for the early adopters, this is not that much of an issue. Folks are already installing broadband just for Internet access. VoIP is just a bit more possible value added to the mix.

I should also point out that a) microoptimization is EXACTLY what this is all about -- you're going to think about how you make your phone call exactly because someone is pinching pennies, b) contrary to your impression, I'm one of the cheapest people on the planet. To be fair, you can't see that I'm sitting here in twenty year old holey blue jeans, but your presumption is wrong. I'm the one who pays the bills at our house, and I make very nickel count. So please, grant me at least consumer common sense.

Tony
technonerd
technonerd
12/5/2012 | 1:53:56 AM
re: Pradeep Sindhu, Juniper Networks
For the carriers this comes down to either delivering new TDM services with additional value add, or deploying new gear that cuts the cost per bit delivered.
Cost per bit only matters if your revenues are determined by the bit sent. Otherwise, you have to use different metrics in your analysis.


I'm sure that the folks who used to replace relays had this same argument with folks who came along to install solid state switches.
Once again, apples and oranges. Replacing relays with solid state had no impact on the service itself, hence relatively little risk. Go to IP telephony and you risk the two things that define telephone service: reliability and QoS.

And if you're sitting in the RBOCs' shoes you think to yourself, "of course these guys from Cisco will say it works. But, hell, they just learned NEBS two years ago for chrissakes, and all these cost arguments aren't going to mean a thing when they come back here in three years and want to swap out what they just sold us."
technonerd
technonerd
12/5/2012 | 1:53:55 AM
re: Pradeep Sindhu, Juniper Networks
Again, let me point you to the folks who already have Internet access and can download a softphone for VoIP.
Anyone who downloads a softphone is, by definition, a geek. Which means they're a hobbyist. Which means their experiences have no relevance to the mass market. Period.


microoptimization is EXACTLY what this is all about -- you're going to think about how you make your phone call exactly because someone is pinching pennies
Someone who has a broadband modem and is downloading softphones is not going into VoIP to pinch pennies. For that person, it's about the geek thrill. Penny pinchers are like the family in Iowa.


To be fair, you can't see that I'm sitting here in twenty year old holey blue jeans, but your presumption is wrong. I'm the one who pays the bills at our house, and I make very nickel count. So please, grant me at least consumer common sense.
You and I don't personally know each other, so maybe you have solid credentials in the cheaptitude area. But the examples you're giving make me think otherwise.
Tony Li
Tony Li
12/5/2012 | 1:53:54 AM
re: Pradeep Sindhu, Juniper Networks
Tony, what is it about you data geeks that makes you think you can sell your products by promising a lower quality of service for chrissakes? Sheesh!
--------------

The success of cell phones.

Tony
technonerd
technonerd
12/5/2012 | 1:53:54 AM
re: Pradeep Sindhu, Juniper Networks
And if I'm willing to live without reliability and QoS I can use my cell (for more money, but with mobility) or I can use VoIP for free. Well, I know what I'm going to choose. ;-)
With the cell, you have a trade-off. And I should note that competition is now affecting the uptime and QoS issues in mobile phones. Expectations are rising. As for VoIP, it's simply NOT free.


Actually, what will be really interesting is when we have a wireless last mile deployed and can have mobile VoIP. That should be truly fun.
We have a wireless last mile. It's called the cellular networks. Do you really think that if it were to go VoIP that the service would become "free"? If you're talking about Wi-Fi, well, at some point there will be landline transport and that's most definitely NOT free, nor will the QoS guarantees needed to render the sessions intelligible.

Today, some geeks can do VoIP over Wi-Fi because at the moment the traffic is so low as to make the whole thing overprovisioned. But if it ever really spreads past the hobbyists that will change and then people will most certainly be paying for availability and QoS.

Come on, Tony, you're a business man or claim to be. Who gives away valuable services?
Tony Li
Tony Li
12/5/2012 | 1:53:54 AM
re: Pradeep Sindhu, Juniper Networks
Once again, apples and oranges. Replacing relays with solid state had no impact on the service itself, hence relatively little risk. Go to IP telephony and you risk the two things that define telephone service: reliability and QoS.
-------------

Hmmm... And if I'm willing to live without "reliability and QoS" I can use my cell (for more money, but with mobility) or I can use VoIP for free. Well, I know what I'm going to choose. ;-)

Actually, what will be really interesting is when we have a wireless last mile deployed and can have mobile VoIP. That should be truly fun.

Tony
Tony Li
Tony Li
12/5/2012 | 1:53:53 AM
re: Pradeep Sindhu, Juniper Networks
And if I'm willing to live without reliability and QoS I can use my cell (for more money, but with mobility) or I can use VoIP for free. Well, I know what I'm going to choose. ;-)
With the cell, you have a trade-off. And I should note that competition is now affecting the uptime and QoS issues in mobile phones. Expectations are rising. As for VoIP, it's simply NOT free.
--------------


Well, all that I'm arguing is that with VoIP, I can also make the trade-off. I haven't been watching the cell world closely, but have folks actually been able to raise their prices because of quality improvements? As far as I can tell prices are stable or falling.


-------------------
We have a wireless last mile. It's called the cellular networks. Do you really think that if it were to go VoIP that the service would become "free"? If you're talking about Wi-Fi, well, at some point there will be landline transport and that's most definitely NOT free, nor will the QoS guarantees needed to render the sessions intelligible.
--------------------


We don't have broadband wireless covering 80% of the population yet. If and when wireless becomes the de facto distribution for last mile broadband, then VoIP over wireless will be part of the standard flat rate Internet access fee. The incremental cost of the VoIP call will be zero.


-------
Today, some geeks can do VoIP over Wi-Fi because at the moment the traffic is so low as to make the whole thing overprovisioned. But if it ever really spreads past the hobbyists that will change and then people will most certainly be paying for availability and QoS.
---------


Yes, some folks will keep their landlines. I wasn't arguing against that.


---------
Come on, Tony, you're a business man or claim to be. Who gives away valuable services?
----------


Only those of us who are trying to change the world for the common good. ;-)

Tony
technonerd
technonerd
12/5/2012 | 1:53:53 AM
re: Pradeep Sindhu, Juniper Networks
The success of cell phones.
Cellphones offer a trade-off. People don't simply give up QoS. They trade it for mobility. And haven't you noticed how the networks are now competing on QoS and availability? (Can you hear me now?) Expectations are rising.

What will VoIP give in return for lower QoS and availability? Don't tell me "free service," because it's simply not true.
Tony Li
Tony Li
12/5/2012 | 1:53:52 AM
re: Pradeep Sindhu, Juniper Networks
What will VoIP give in return for lower QoS and availability? Don't tell me "free service," because it's simply not true.
--------------

"Free service" and it is true. There are no incremental costs above and beyond an existing broadband connection and flat rate Internet access fee.

Tony
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