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rjmcmahon 12/4/2012 | 7:26:06 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off The question is, how long will the big telco guys hang on to an aging installed base? Time is running out.
_______________________

I don't think we know the answer to this yet. Technology says time ran out years ago but bw demand growth is driven by data traffic where revenue generating biz-models have their challenges.

In the case of the RRs it took a while before the major revenue generating consumable, oil, moved to optimized distribution technologies, pipelines. The irony is that John D managed to use RR rights-of-ways to build his pipelines. The next major consumable, coal, is still being transported on RRs today. (The pulverized coal pipelines never were widely adopted.)
broadbandboy 12/4/2012 | 7:26:08 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off Daveman writes: "... Core ATM is on the outs once again but it seems to have some life - another plus for Lucent."

Core ATM does have some life, but is it really a plus for Lucent?

A bit of history-- Lucent bought its way into the market with the $20 billion paid for Cascade. Sure, Lucent was number one, but analysts like YG say market share is in decline. Other vendors with new and improved products are getting ready to eat Lucent's lunch in both core and edge. If you're an Lu customer, nothing new is coming down the pike. The question is, how long will the big telco guys hang on to an aging installed base? Time is running out.

I'm interested in other opinions, comments.

BBboy



Ranger 12/4/2012 | 7:26:09 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off You are correct!

I've always said that you could have the best damn tank in the world (like the M1A2 Abrams tank) but if you didn't have a competent and trained crew operating the machine, then all you have is a 70 ton paperweight.

Lucent may have good products but if they don't have the right people to support and sell, then all you have is a 70 ton paperweight.

I'm not saying that they are dead. They just need a serious jolt of tough leadership.
manoflalambda 12/4/2012 | 7:26:17 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off ONG's one hope was the Lambda Router designed with 1024X1024 ports, which has yet to make any money. They canned the Lambda Router "lite", which was supposed to be a scaled down version

The 1024 isn't dead. "lite" configurations are still in the works as well.

LambdaUnite, LambdaRouter and then LambdaXtreme and LambdaManager look to be a strong foursome.

Salute,
Manoflalambda
flanker 12/4/2012 | 7:26:18 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off Optical Ethernet would be layer 2 ethernet. Read "VLANS". You can't talk IP without talking "ROUTER" or layer 3.

That wasnt the question. The question was whether you can set up a backbone without a SONET mux, and the answer is yes. Several vendors accept GiG E interfaces for metro optical networks. I have no idea why CSCO calls this IP + Optical. It probably has something to do with the fact that they manufacture a funny thing called a router and they can sell you both the edge and the core gear without dicking around with SONET.
Light_Headed 12/4/2012 | 7:26:20 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off
I ask you to consider short-term and long-term outlook for Lucent. Short term is a joke. The only reason Lucent is surviving is because of legacy equipment like SONET and DACS. Everyone loves to bad mouth this part of Lucent, but at the end of the day, it is what pays the bills. Look at ONG for a second. Lucent does not have an IP Router nor has plans to build one so whoever mentioned that Lucent will compete in the IP/MPLS space is clueless. ONG's one hope was the Lambda Router designed with 1024X1024 ports, which has yet to make any money. They canned the Lambda Router "lite", which was supposed to be a scaled down version. Their DWDM platform is worse with OLS 400G being given away at cost/fire-sale and their future hopes with their next-gen DWDM is ridiculous, because it is based on Ultra-Long-Haul (look at Corvis). Would you or would you not expect that the next-gen system is more expensive at distances where OLS 400G competes? It is basically common sense to know that a system designed to go 4000km with O-E-O should and will cost more than a system design for <1500km. ONG's only hope is taking the OLS 40/80G product and turning into a metro product. Just remember that Lucent has chalked up 2 metro failures already; one internally developed product called AllMetro and of course the infamous acquisition of Chromatis for a cool $4.5B. I don't think we even need to mention wireless with all of the problems in ONG.

I think everyone should put aside the fact of product quality or competitiveness for Lucent and focus on the key issue; management capability. Since McGinn and Hopkins departure, do you really think the culture has changed at Lucent? Absolutely not. All of the management there is nothing but former AT&T good ole boys that want to suck off of each other all the way to the top. I saw first-hand Jeong Kim's initiative to revolutionize ONG by reorganizing into BU's, but placing incompetent management to run these BU's as well as the fact that they all are products of the former RBOC monopoly, what do you expect? Consequently, Jeong Kim's bitter departure resulted because he was powerless with all of idiots running the BU's underneath him and the fact that he did not understand optical technology. It is called "knowledge is power" and without knowledge of each BU, he was powerless. Not once was any attempt made to bring in heads of BU from outside, which is perplexing for me to understand. My attempts as a consultant in helping Lucent improve cash flow was a joke. When someone cannot even read a Balance Sheet or an Income Statement, how can they expect to make a difference there?

Long-term I would predict the demise of Lucent unless they get some new blood at the top. They need someone like Jack Welch or John Chambers who will take no prisoners and not tolerate the in-bred culture that exists there. You can talk about current products all you want, but it is management that leads a company out of bad times. Everyone I know still there does not see any change happening at the ground level. Talk about employee reductions all you want, but this is not what will make Lucent turn the corner. It is called good management with strong financial discipline and customer focused products. They currently have neither.

For the people still hanging onto Lucent, I suggest you spend less time surfing on lightreading and try to do some honest work. The company could sure use it right now.

Just remember Lucent employees, Lucent is not far behind Enron. Take note. Products do not kill companies, cash flow does. Take a look at Global Crossing these days.

Best of luck and long live Lucent!


Light_Headed
Bill Johnson 12/4/2012 | 7:26:26 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off -"We finally know who Harvey is working for".

Although Harvey seems to be pro Lucent, he is not working. I stick to my original hunch that he is a jaded by-product of RIFs.

If I am wrong, he has absolutely no social life since all he does is surf LR in order to get a rise out of people, which he is very good at.

dowdog 12/4/2012 | 7:26:37 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off 63k as of 12/01. Will be reduced to 56-7K. Necessary to fulfill the phase II.
Daveman 12/4/2012 | 7:26:38 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off I won't get too hyped. May be something interesting here but I doubt we'll hear about it until March. It will be interesting to see:

How will the economy look towards the end of Mar 02?

What will LU's top line look like then? If Sept still the target for profitability?

I would say LU is sideways (around $6-7) until then. If some cool products are announced, spending is under control and restructuring is finished... I'd say March might be the next time we see some improvement in this stock. LU: Not for the Impatient! Anyone who like's this stock has to be a risk taker and in it for the long haul...
Daveman 12/4/2012 | 7:26:38 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off Optical Ethernet would be layer 2 ethernet. Read "VLANS". You can't talk IP without talking "ROUTER" or layer 3.
WDMer 12/4/2012 | 7:26:39 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off There is some "truth" in Caveman's post ;)
EON architecture has interested many and
refreshingly different than antique OLS-40G and thats what got Verizon goin on...!! Just heard..SBC is interested for field trials..!
Whoa..LU is getting back with vengance in METRO market...Watch out NT, CSCO n Clones..!!!!
flanker 12/4/2012 | 7:26:46 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off I want to know awhat is optical Ethernet?

Cisco's optical transport platforms accept GigE interfaces and convert them using a proprietary protocol into wavelengths. SONET is not mandated for Cisco's core.

You could call this GigE over glass but Cisco calls it IP + Optical. Just an example, I do not work for CSCO.

Confucius 12/4/2012 | 7:26:47 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off If hes not a plant, hes got the thickest skin of anyone I've experienced!

Skull. Not skin.

nag_e_n 12/4/2012 | 7:26:48 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off Can anybody tell me if the optical gears does support the services like IP.I want to know awhat is optical Ethernet?
Litewave 12/4/2012 | 7:26:51 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off Author: optigirl
[About Harvey Mudd]
...It's not like he ever contributes anything meaningful or intelligent and he never responds to anything anyone says to him...


Too true!

If hes not a plant, hes got the thickest skin of anyone I've experienced!

optigirl 12/4/2012 | 7:26:55 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off I have to wonder if Harvey is just someone who sits around all day writing up semi-literate posts just to create chatter.

It's not like he ever contributes anything meaningful or intelligent and he never responds to anything anyone says to him.

Is he a LR plant just to get people posting???

Inquiring minds wanna know!!!

:-)

flanker 12/4/2012 | 7:26:55 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off You didn't get a comment from us last week and you're not going to get one this week, either," said Wendy Zajack, a Lucent spokeswoman.


She's definitely a graduate of Dale Carnegie's <font color="#FF0080" face="Verdana">HOW TO WIN FRIENDS AD INFLUENCE PEOPLE
</font>
three day mega-course.





gea 12/4/2012 | 7:26:57 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off Harvey! (Or should I say "Gollum"?)
You who are so glum, and seeing crappy technology and conspiracies everywhere...you really believe that Lucent is somehow the hands-down winner in terms of ALL telecom technology?

Sorry dude...I've had my hands on the OLS-40G, as well as the Ciena 1600/SENTRY as well as the Pirelli/Cisco stuff and more. I'll grant that the OLS-40G is old, but it was no more reliable than anybody else's gear. In addition, while doing a field trial of the OLS 40G in conjunction with an RBOC, 3 engineers tried to correctly pad the optical channels using the "Smart Pad" feature, and none of them were succesful. The OC-48 wavelengths had shitty BERs after other channels dropped out. So it never really worked great in the first place.
None of the other vendors I've seen had that problem.

Ya' know, Harvey...you really sound like quite a kook. Do you really think you are doing your company a favor by bashing everyone else's gear like you do? And then praise Lucent in a way that has no qualifications or exceptions technology-wise?
manoflalambda 12/4/2012 | 7:26:57 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off Oops :)

77000 excludes Agere but includes OFS-Fitel.
(See the PDFs at Lucent.com,
http://www.lucent.com/investor... )

Salute,
Manoflalambda
Daveman 12/4/2012 | 7:26:58 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off Lucent hasn't done a lot in the Metro DWDM space yet... but I hear they are coming out with a switch called EON which is the backbone of the unannounced Verizon deal. Scuttle-butt from my sources is that this deal isn't supposed to be announced until March (at some industry show) and the deal is rumored to be 1.8BB... according to the rumors I listen to.

I do hear that the DMX switch is begining to replace a lot of the Cisco 15454 gear due to Network Management problems,,, scaling issues, etc. Lucent seems the under-dog in most the optical networking gear with NT the one to beat. LU thrives in much of the legacy business... Circuit switches, DACs, Sonet muxing, etc. DSL is a strong spot for LU but who is sure where that is going? The DLC business is their's to loose. I can't even begin to think of the numbers of Anymedia Fasts out there... Core ATM is on the outs once again but it seems to have some life - another plus for Lucent.

If LU can become the contender for optical leadership in 2002 and comes out with some strong IP/MPLS products... I'd say LU is a serious top contender... They are a "Show Me" company for now...
Daveman 12/4/2012 | 7:26:58 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off I know many ex-Lucent staff who were FMP'd in the last 12 months. I don't know what you're talking about but they are sure that Lucent has done some significant cutting... Didn't Henry say at the last conference call that the force reduction will be complete this January. The numbers published were that at the end of Phase II Lucent would have 65,000 employees. This is down from 120,000+.... So what exactly are you talking about?
manoflalambda 12/4/2012 | 7:26:58 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off The real problem with Lucent is being overstaffed to the tune of about 30%. Lucent has not yet implemented the workforce reduction it announced earlier. It s inability to reduce the workforce is cosing almost a billion dollars year.

Hmmm. Currently 77000 people (9/30 iirc). Target 57-62000 (prob includes Agere and OFS-Fitel off role at that time). Cuts in Indian Hill and elsewhere recently.

Harvey, what would your target number be?

Salute,
Manoflalambda
optigirl 12/4/2012 | 7:26:58 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off One of the things that might happen here is that Lucent sells the stuff at cost, which locks other companies out of the account and then turns around and sticks it to the customers on servicing revenues. (See IBM)

You don't have to be the best, just the biggest. It also helps when you are part of the ol' boy network and everyone has known each other for years. LU and NT know the operations side of the house and since there is such a large embedded base anyway, they will get a seat at the bargaining table no matter what.

Combine all of this with lowered expectations, firing tens of thousands of employees and you can do it the Lucent way....


}:-(
optigirl 12/4/2012 | 7:26:59 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off One of the things that might happen here is that Lucent sells the stuff at cost, which locks other companies out of the account and then turns around and sticks it to the customers on servicing revenues. (See IBM)

You don't have to be the best, just the biggest. It also helps when you are part of the ol' boy network and everyone has known each other for years. LU and NT know the operations side of the house and since there is such a large embedded base anyway, they will get a seat at the bargaining table no matter what.

Combine all of this with lowered expectations, firing tens of thousands of employees and you can do it the Lucent way....


}:-(
lu-alum 12/4/2012 | 7:27:00 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off Come on give me a f***ing break. I worked there for quite a while and while it's true that the 5E, the SLC products and low speed sonet gear are extremely reliable, they are also old. In terms of Data gear (where I worked) I can tell you that 80% of what Lucent has is crap. Their DWDM gear pales to companies like Ciena and even lowly Nortel. Their ATM solutions are running on fumes and their recently acquired technology, Nottabit, Chromatis, and Ignitus are largely cancelled or on again off again like the Nottabit router.

As far as traditional gear, Fujitsu kicked their asses in SONET gear and Tellabs ate their lunch in the DACS market. Good for them if they got a deal with Stinger by giving it away, but I've seen that movie and I know how it ends.
WDMer 12/4/2012 | 7:27:01 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off First, he aint working 4 LU, as he wudnt suggest layoffs as a solution for LU, might be first one to go..!
There is some truth in Harvey's opinoun. However
hard u want, u just cant wish Lucent away.
After massacare at NT and hyped up false marketing
claims by CSCO, LU with its lambda* and metropolis* product family looks much safer and positioned to come out clean in 02.

my $0.02
Route495 12/4/2012 | 7:27:03 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off That explains Harvey's spending most of the day surfing on LR. It also explains his bitchin about foreign H1 workers.

--

So what do you do for Lucent?
prefer_to_lurk 12/4/2012 | 7:27:04 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off "It is an absolute fact that Lucent has the most reliable Telecom gear that can address the legacy equipment and the most modern systems that anyone can ecpect.

Thre is no other vendor that even comes closer to the richness and fulness of the Lucent Gear. This is true of any segment of the telecom service provider (e.g., Optical gear, Switches, DWDMs, Metro equipment."

Really ? Ever hear of a company called Nortel Networks ? How about Alcatel ?

ptl


Belzebutt 12/4/2012 | 7:27:04 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off It is an absolute fact that Lucent has the most reliable Telecom gear that can address the legacy equipment and the most modern systems that anyone can ecpect.

We finally know who Harvey is working for!
opticaltalent 12/4/2012 | 7:27:04 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off
So what do you do for Lucent?
HarveyMudd 12/4/2012 | 7:27:05 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off It is an absolute fact that Lucent has the most reliable Telecom gear that can address the legacy equipment and the most modern systems that anyone can ecpect.

Thre is no other vendor that even comes closer to the richness and fulness of the Lucent Gear. This is true of any segment of the telecom service provider (e.g., Optical gear, Switches, DWDMs, Metro equipment.

The real problem with Lucent is being overstaffed to the tune of about 30%. Lucent has not yet implemented the workforce reduction it announced earlier. It s inability to reduce the workforce is cosing almost a billion dollars year.
WolfLarsen 12/4/2012 | 7:27:06 PM
re: Lucent Takes the Gloves Off Nope, false alarm ....
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