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Pete Baldwin 12/5/2012 | 5:44:21 PM
re: Juniper Points to the Economy

Some analysts are starting to wonder if something systemic is going on with Juniper, judging from the questions on the earnings call. We quoted Ed Zabitsky of ACI earlier, who thinks it's the start of the CDN effect.  And back in October, Mike Genovese of MKM was seeing evidence that the intentionally delayed router shipments might extend beyond Q2.


Conventional wisdom has been that Juniper will be OK in 2012 due to the new products coming. It'll be interesting to see if that POV holds up.


Separately: Juniper announced a customer for MobileNext -- it's Elisa, in Finland.

macster 12/5/2012 | 5:44:20 PM
re: Juniper Points to the Economy

Seems like a classic declining revenue/profit consulting case. I'd look externally at the market and competitors first before saying it's Juniper-specific.

photon2 12/5/2012 | 5:44:20 PM
re: Juniper Points to the Economy

If Alcatel-Lucent IP division and Cisco SP routers are also down this much, then yes, it's the economy.  If they're flat to up....uh.....there's something else going on. 


I guess we'll know soon enough.


P2

Fsaterrats 12/5/2012 | 5:44:09 PM
re: Juniper Points to the Economy

Well, let's see...


The MX doesn't appear to be growing, and from Q2 "10" to Q2 "11" the line grew $130M.  In Q2 "11" the line did $279, and in the last quarter, I believe it did $255.


ERICY (who OEMs the MX series routers) announced their own replacement gear in August.  If I recall correctly, ERICY accounted for about 20% of the MX.


As LightReading pointed out, the new (RedBack) SSR 8000 line will achieve 400Gbit/s-per-slot, therefore, I think we can safely say it will be reliant on the EZCH NP-4, which went into production in December. 


I would guess/expect that ERICY's business may have tailored off in Q3 and Q4 in anticipation of them providing their own solution.  With 400Gbit/s-per-slot vs. the current MX960/Trio, I don't think it would be a long conversation to convince a customer to wait a few months...do you?


Of course, moving forward, Dell (another JNPR OEM partner) has acquired Force 10, and I've read that they are terminating that relationship this month.  Similarly, they too may have been scaling back.


Additionally, Nokia Siemens is diverging away from the fixed access market, and JNPER was focal to that effort, too.


Sounds like tough sledding to me!





 




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