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lastmile 12/4/2012 | 10:02:15 PM
re: JDSU's Rationalization Process LS,
At this time we are moving the discussion to some kind of a technology that does not exist and has not been heard of.
Even though it is nice to think that some emerging fiber technology will make the present day components non existent, it would be prudent to talk about any specific company that is investing heavily in R&D or any new company that has announced a new product.
As always any new technology gets obsolete quickly and the big boys continue to invest heavily in R&D to keep ahead.
In the past a two person garage team could have emerged with a fantastic gadget that could revolutionize a segment of an industry. But any innovation in fiber optics requires a huge infrastructure like special labs and testing equipment.
That is the reason for which I am convinced that one of todays big players will get bigger and bigger and at the right time that company will absorb the new emerging technology.
Could that company be JDSU? I am not sure. With so many reports of mismanagement they may never become a leader. But no one knows.
LightBeating 12/4/2012 | 10:02:13 PM
re: JDSU's Rationalization Process lastmile,

I'm wondering what innovation you're talking about. I've been in this field for well over 20 years, and spent the first years of my carreer in academia. I can tell you there was very little true innovation in the past five years. All the technology had been invented and developed mostly in University labs, and in the major corporate labs (Bell Labs, IBM), and dates back sometimes 20-25 years. Sure, packaging was refined, as few academic researchers care about that aspect (or maybe it's not sexy enough for the gratn agencies...).

But nevertheless, I think packaging is still in it's infancy. there's very little true automation, and it's still a low yield, labor intensive process. Just compare with the packaging involved in making a CD reading head, which also involves pointing a laser beam with sub-micron precision. That's now done just for a few bucks. A basic thin film device still costs in the $100 range.

Anyway, maybe I've been in this field for too long, but I clearly wouldn't qualify it as rocket science. Making chips with sub-micron lines is a much greater challenge IMHO.

LB
lastmile 12/4/2012 | 10:02:13 PM
re: JDSU's Rationalization Process W_S
It certainly hurts to read that most members of this board feel that this company has lost it's standing in the fiber optics sector.
I have always respected the views of so many individual members of this board because I am convinced that 90% of the writers who contribute are qualified engineers with unbiased views.
I hope the management at JDSU gets a chance to read what the outside world thinks about them. It is never too late to change for the better.
wavelength_switch 12/4/2012 | 10:02:13 PM
re: JDSU's Rationalization Process Sorry if it hurts, but I am convinced that JDSU is something of the past.

They had a very primitive centerpiece technology that came on time with exponential market demand. They grew out of luck, never spending time or effort on assembling a rationalized and integrated corporation with truly competent senior management. JDSU's track record of technology failures and projects cancellation is not publicly known for now, probably hidden by the parallel flow of technology acquisitions.

Bringing in a new executive might be too little too late for a company that has lost its lifeblood and never came up to the market with any significant new breakthrough technology.
sunra 12/4/2012 | 10:02:12 PM
re: JDSU's Rationalization Process There are 2 questions: can JDSU survive in the current climate and if they do will they be successful?

With zero debt and $1.5 billion in the bank this clearly puts them in a different league than HPOC(Nortel), AO ( Alcatel ),GLW and Agere whose component businesses are all ripe for closure or aquisition.

Will JDSU succeed? The key will be integration of components into low cost modules. If they continue to sell expensive gold boxes inside of other boxes they will lose. If they can find a way to drive cost out of their products they have a good shot.
LightSeeking 12/4/2012 | 10:02:12 PM
re: JDSU's Rationalization Process Lastmile,

My business is not to talk about any specifics of any current or new technologies in optics - sorry! And I shall stay away from naming any company that is working or will be working on any R&D that could lead to new winning technologies - sorry!

Yes, it is difficult for small companies to build an infrastructure for leading-edge technologies. But it is not impossible. Why? The answer is outsourcing and partnership.

Acquiring companies is also not necessarily the right way of getting ahead. Just look at the examples in the industry. It all goes back to the top management of the big companies. Are they clever enough to realize good things, bad things?

I don't know how the future is going to shape up for the optical component industry. Will JDSU be a big part of it? I just doubt it.

LS
H-Burger 12/4/2012 | 10:02:11 PM
re: JDSU's Rationalization Process photonic integration and an optical equivalent to Moore's law seem pretty far away and I have not seen any technologies that have the ability to bring semiconductor economics to the optical components industry. There are dozens of startups that claim to have developed optical asics and true photonic integration, but none seem to have really done it. has anyone seen anything really revolutionary out there?
BlueWater66 12/4/2012 | 10:02:11 PM
re: JDSU's Rationalization Process I actually don't believe JDSU is a true market leader. Companies like Corning and Agere have a very long track record in optics. There are a large number of people with years of experience. JDSU was more of a "gold rush". In the early 90's Uniphase are a pathetic little company that no one wanted to work for. Their Silicon Valley location was also terrible (at that time there was very little fiber optics in the valley). Most of their executive team was learning on the job. BUT- they new how to sell STOCK and use it as a currency. They are a lot like a technology version of ENRON!!

I've never recommended buying their stock (even at the height of the boom), because they were a glued-together mess. Agere and Corning obviously have their own problems to deal with, but at least their are solid structures in place.

As a contrast, look a Finisar. They were a very small company that focused on a couple basic technologies. They have always had a stable management team. For most of their life, no one there made much money but they were tied into fundamental business strategy. They have problems, but long-term there is a backbone that can be built upon. In my view, Finisar is an "Anti-JDSU" and will benefit from it.
FiberGuy 12/4/2012 | 10:02:08 PM
re: JDSU's Rationalization Process If JDSU cannot make it, how can other vendors (Avanex/Oplink, Lightconnect, Dicon, OMM, Onyx, etc...)?

Cash goes a long way in survival and JDS is swimming in it.

FG
Mr. Mutt 12/4/2012 | 10:02:05 PM
re: JDSU's Rationalization Process There was an article published in Red Herring about a company called Infinara that was supposedly working on some type of optical or photonic chip based on LiNbO3. They raised $86M in December, have some pretty big names on their roster (Jagdeep Singh, Dave Welch, Drew Perkins among others), maybe they've an answer? Different space than JDSU, but interesting none the less.

http://www.infinera.com/news/0...

These guys are SUPER secret, so there's not a lot of info on them out there in the world.
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