Isn't it a bit early to be attributing core router sales weakness to next gen packet-optical and CDN deployments? Maybe not but that feels like more of a 2013/4 trend than one that would impact late 2011...
He's convinced the CDN effect has already started and is manifesting itself in carrier behavior.
For packet-optical... It may be early, but he was saying back in March (when the PTX was announced) that he expects some carriers to hold off on T4000s while they wait for the PTX. So, that effect is possible.
I guess it might be a few more quarters before we find out if he is on to something as it's possible a lot of AT&T suppliers might get a nice bump in Q1 that will skew any actual trends...
This is merely a cycle that comes around eveytime bandwidth increases, and core routers need to handle more, the fact is technology around the core increases and gets deployed to keep core routers down. This happened in the late 1990's, and CDN's are proving to do an even better job now. Fact is, this will affect any core router vendor, not just Juniper. I think it has little to do with the POTs segment.
> Shouldn't you wait for more router vendors to say the same before declaring this as a general problem, rather than a single vendor problem?
Possibly. Depends on how gutsy a call you're trying to make.
Regarding Cisco not seeing effects -- Juniper does have the handicap of having the T4000 just now coming out. The transition might give customers an extra reason to hold off on buying.
It occurs to me, too ... on the packet-optical side, Juniper will see business move to the PTX. For Cisco, though, some of that business will stay in the "router" category, since they're offering the CRS-3 as their massive core MPLS switch.
Tying the two threads together: It will be interesting to watch both companies during the course of the year. Maybe it's an industrywide effect that Cisco is just a little later in encountering. Maybe it really is all Juniper-specific. I don't know.
Isn't it a bit early to be attributing core router sales weakness to next gen packet-optical and CDN deployments? Maybe not but that feels like more of a 2013/4 trend than one that would impact late 2011...