re: Is Infinera Ready for an IPO?Ipskeptic, That is very good point about them only have Tier-2 customers. I bet they are working hard on Tier-1. When (or if) will they get one? Who know! I heard that Tier-1 is much much harder than Tier-2 and Infinera is sooo young and sooo unstable in Tier-1 eyes. I don't think technology is limiting factor here. From what I read, Infinera closest competitor is CIEN whose market cap ~$2.4B, rev ~$550M/year. Infinera may just get paid this much! Some could argue that they could fetch even more than CIEN because of their growth prospect. Let's look at this argument. 2005 Infinera shipped ~$25M, 2006 they probably shipped $100+ that is 4X year/year. If they ship $200M this year, it's 100% y/y. Not as good but still impressive. Can they do another doubling ($400M) in 2008 with only Tier-2? Big question mark and only time will tell. But if they could then I think the stock market will reward them handsomely whether WE THE PEOPLE like it or not. Stock market has known to project growth into the sky with only a few quarters of data.
Don't forget to ask for scented soap when the VCs wash you, at least you can come out smelling good. After that, come see me at WalMart, I might have a job for you.
re: Is Infinera Ready for an IPO?So if they have figured out the yield problem on complex III-V chips. Why doesn't Infinera dominate the discrete component market (e.g. for lasers) as well? Are they just too busy?
re: Is Infinera Ready for an IPO?Infinera = Neuvo-Bookham?
Bookham solved their cashflow problems via IPO. Never put a dime on the bottom line, to this day. Georgio managed to have positive cashflow for himself, negative for the shareholders, and kept his job...amazing!
That is very good point about them only have Tier-2 customers. I bet they are working hard on Tier-1. When (or if) will they get one? Who know! I heard that Tier-1 is much much harder than Tier-2 and Infinera is sooo young and sooo unstable in Tier-1 eyes. I don't think technology is limiting factor here.
From what I read, Infinera closest competitor is CIEN whose market cap ~$2.4B, rev ~$550M/year. Infinera may just get paid this much!
Some could argue that they could fetch even more than CIEN because of their growth prospect. Let's look at this argument. 2005 Infinera shipped ~$25M, 2006 they probably shipped $100+ that is 4X year/year. If they ship $200M this year, it's 100% y/y. Not as good but still impressive. Can they do another doubling ($400M) in 2008 with only Tier-2? Big question mark and only time will tell. But if they could then I think the stock market will reward them handsomely whether WE THE PEOPLE like it or not. Stock market has known to project growth into the sky with only a few quarters of data.
Teddybear