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On the downside, I was surprised by the low take-out valuation on Movaz which seemed like it would be a star a year or so ago.
Finally, I hear the run rate at Infinera is significantly higher than $100M.
Author: redface Number: 4
Subject: what kind of "source" is this Date: 6/7/2006 6:47:09 PM
"(One financial source) The source added that IPO excitement persists in certain sectors -- and optical is one of these -- despite the debacle of the recent Vonage Holdings Corp. (NYSE: VG - message board) offering. (See Vonage Gets a Haircut.)"
What kind of "source" is this? How could any self-respecting "source" say that there is excitement in optical IPO when there is none? Why does Lightreading spread the rumors of irresponsible/ignorant "source" who may have an ulterior motive? Has Lightreading become an integral part of the Infinera hype machine?
Infinera is now playing a big game of smoke and mirrors. It hopes to find a big sucker who will pay a lot more than $250M so that the investors can recoup the investment. However, if every large company takes a wait-and-see approach, Infinera will probably die over time.
This is pure Vinhod hype BS. Anyone buys into this is a pure sucker or owes KPCB big time.
The techonology works- but the advantages of photonic integration are yet to dawn on me! Can it really reduce the costs where each of these PICs follow the "made to measure" manufacturing model ? Is that viable ? Moreover, monolithic integration just sucks up optical performance from an optical system which is a carrier's long term investment in the core of the network. Upgrading is a major issue with multiple 100G channels in the system.
I guess, Infinera philosopy is to cross the performance issue bridge when they come to it- concentrate on getting the customers in first, worry about system performance later, when business is viable..
I'm going long on Infinera.
It seems to me that with all the innuendo and unsubstantiated comments stated as facts, that a lot of you are hoping/wishing that Infinera is all Smoke and Mirrors. Deep down you are really afraid what it means to your company or job if the Infinera technology is real.
I sent Infinera my resume today. ItGÇÖs time I joined a winning team.
when i started my thread, my comments were made on two fronts: pricing and performance of the DTN system.
on pricing, my thoughts compliment yours. it is not such an issue - after all , we, component manufacturers have been feeling the squeeze for couple of years now and this new wave of low pricing will just mean we will have to be smarter in reducing our internal cost structures.
what i said was the performance of the system - i know a few people in the service provider space.(knowing your customer's customer is always a good thing.) currently the system is being deployed in two such networks and i had some optical eye diagrams sent to me from one of the techie guys. i was startled with the performance results. the deployment was about 400 km link with 'standard fibre charteristics'. 4 amplifiers.
the eye diagram was very poor for some channels. the BER on these channels couldn't be better than 10-5, meaning a lot of post FEC correction needed to improve the BER.
i wish infinera success as my company is going to supply them in near future. the issue i had raised was that with this performance penalty on the system - why would anybody think of deploying the system. one answer i got was that the procurement guys love the stuff. that is a valid answer. i just feel sorry for these poor carriers when they start to increase the channel count on the system, only to find that the system wouldn't work.
i also want to understand how photonic integration helps lower the cost? any one pointers greatly appreciated.
i could share the pricing but am protecting my whoppee-ass (and my service provider friend)from getting hauled before some court of law.