Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates

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optiplayer 12/5/2012 | 3:48:53 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates What's not to like.

- Strong revenue growth
- Continued GM expansion (many here doubted this could ever be done)
- Continued customer diversification with 4 10% customers and no customer over 18% of revenue.

They are making excellent progress. Now they need a Tier 1 customer to take it to the next level. I'm also curious to hear what guidance they provided for next Q and 2008. Will listen to the call later.

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Pete Baldwin 12/5/2012 | 3:48:53 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates Shares have continued to climb since press time ... they're now up about 18% in after-hours trading.

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litereading 12/5/2012 | 3:48:52 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates You know, I think the SEC should start making all companies report "Invoiced Shipments" - 'cause that's the real measure of success!

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litereading 12/5/2012 | 3:48:52 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates Wow, Craig, you think the stock might get back to its IPO price?

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ninjaturtle 12/5/2012 | 3:48:51 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates Does LR make or generate money? Do they pay you Craig or are you still an intern? If they do they you owe them back that 25 cents.

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Pete Baldwin 12/5/2012 | 3:48:51 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates Wow, Craig, you think the stock might get back to its IPO price?

LOL. Yes, always good to be reminded that they're still a 'down' story overall.

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ninjaturtle 12/5/2012 | 3:48:51 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates There have been so many negative comments spewed on LightReading it just makes me feel good to see that INFN is not only doing well but has a very secure business model that should make it a huge success in the future.

As far as "Invoiced Shipments" that is the only way they can show their numbers correctly. It is by the way how most telecom equipment companies do it. They just don't say it that way. But if that is how you report and you are comparing quarter to quarter, it all rolls out the same at the end of the day.

Great Year INFN. And to the LightReading crowd that thought for the last 7 years that INFN wouldn't amount to anything. FU!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BTW by year end INFN will be in the $20-$25 range so hop on the train now. Look for a $425M 2008 revenue number. INVOICED THAT IS!!!!! Hee Hee

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howsweetitis 12/5/2012 | 3:48:50 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates for a new IPO. Good for you INFN. Keep ROCKING!!! Very compelling story and Technology.

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ninjaturtle 12/5/2012 | 3:48:50 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates I agree...they are off to the races. Should be a very impressive 2008. Cheers.

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hyperunner 12/5/2012 | 3:48:49 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates ...now it's time for the market to learn how to get comfortable with this company. The company keeps bringing in better than expected revenue growth, profits rising, costs falling and dependence on Level 3 is almost a thing of the past. The stock is in the crapper partly because the whole market has gone south, but more specifically because Infinera is such a volatile stock, they will inevitably be hit harder by a weak stock market. But the flip side is that they recover more quickly if sentiment changes.

I'm a big fan of the Infinera technology, but it's clear that as they are becoming so dominant in the ROADM space they need to figure out how to increase their addressable market (this isn't insight by yours truly, they get asked the same question on every earnings call).

So what is it to be?

- Develop their own metro product?
- Acquire a metro company?
- Develop their own carrier Ethernet platform?
- Acquire a carrier Ethernet platform?
- Something else?

I read this list and I get a bit worried because, as far as I can see, PIC technology on its own does not give them any serious advantage in any of these markets.

What a lot of people don't get though is that the PIC makes other stuff practical too. In particular this bandwidth virtualization thing, while a real geek fest of a name, actually starts to look interesting for a carrier ethernet edge device.

And while they don't make much noise about it, Infinera has the most flexible GMPLS implementation on the market.

If they can pull a story together around these technologies then I think they can turn a technology acquisition into a commercial success (something that is all too rare).

So when I look for future growth from this company I have to think an acquisition of a carrier Ethernet company is on the cards in 2008. The problem is that Ciena has overpaid for WWP and set the entry price for an acquisition pretty high.

Any thoughts?

hR.

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