Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates

COMMENTS

Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View

<< < Page 2 / 2

Stefan Sip 12/5/2012 | 3:48:48 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates Just as all the talking heads are debating whether we are headed toward a recession or not, the best leading indicator is the stock/debt market because (insider) information is quickly translated into buy/sell orders.

The fundementals of Infinera is wonderful. Their technology is second to none. Their management is a proven entity. Lastly, their growth is dot-com like. However, with all the success, why are insiders selling at this point. Unless the insiders need the cash now or simply wanting to give other investors a bargin basement price for their stock, there is no logical reason to sell. Something doesnt' add up. Just be careful out there.

Lastly, for people arguing that the overall market has been so depressed and INFN has been caught by the broader down-turn, let me remind people the following: No sector has been trashed more than housing. Since the severe downturn since the beginning of the year, home builders have rallied 30% to 50%.

My personal opinion is simply that INFN 15% bump today is an oversold rally using the earnings as an excuse.

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

litereading 12/5/2012 | 3:48:48 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates I'm not "anti-INFN" - I am still not convinced they will have sustainable success. They have performed well (much better than I expected), the product is a good one and the PIC technology innovative (in the sense that they have made it viable commercially). But...

Their success seems to be pretty much driven by 10G photonics at lowest cost. What drives my skepticism is - how long before competitors catch up on cost (probably this year), how big is the market that they are addressing and the chances of success of moving beyond current addressable market (this determines growth in topline and the bottomline), how will INFN address the transition of photonic to 40G/100G rates(isn't their current 40G solution an inverse mux burning 4 ch not one, how much R&d to get a true 40G? a 100G? Does current PIC work at these rates without disapating so much heat than a line card can cook a pizza?), and other questions for the long term.

The point I am making is successfully for how long? Hat's off (although invoiced shipments is a nice accounting gimmick to anyone who has taking more than a basic accounting course). As that famous economist Galbraith said..."we are always in the long term." What are they planning for their next act?

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

hyperunner 12/5/2012 | 3:48:48 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates Incidentally I've been following Infinera stories on Light Reading for a while.

The message boards associated with those stories tend to get pretty polarized, but I notice fewer and fewer naysayers recently.

"litereading" is still batting for the anti-Infinera camp I see, and he raises a good point. Yes, the stock is below the IPO point.

But the whole market has been hammered in recent months thanks mainly to the greed of the mortgage companies.

People said Infinera was overvalued as a $2B company with $130M revenues. But now they're a sub-billion market cap company with $300M revenues and amazing revenue growth they're looking like a bargain.

I'm not sure I'd go so far as saying they'll get back to historic highs, but at $10 there's clearly money to be made in this stock.

hR.

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

Gnut 12/5/2012 | 3:48:47 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates ...think an acquisition of a carrier Ethernet company is on the cards in 2008. The problem is that Ciena has overpaid for WWP and set the entry price for an acquisition pretty high.
Any thoughts?

- So is that why the price was so high? To block INFN?

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

Pete Baldwin 12/5/2012 | 3:48:47 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates - So is that why the price was so high? To block INFN?

No, not to block Infinera.

http://www.lightreading.com/bl...

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

ninjaturtle 12/5/2012 | 3:48:43 PM

re: Infinera Obliterates Q4 Estimates Nice ~45% bump today. Obliviously way oversold in the last few weeks. However, based on my awareness of INFN they are just hitting their stride. I believe they are a solid company that has the technical expertise to develop additional market niches and make their core PIC technology work. In addition they have a great software team and Asics group that can continue to push the envelope. They started INFN back in 2001 to change the landscape of the optical networking space and I wouldn't be betting against this team. GO PATRIOTS!!!!!!!!!!

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

<< < Page 2 / 2