re: Infinera Lowers ForecastVirtually every company has hit the skids in the down turn so we should not expect anything more from INFN, regardless of technology.
Secondly, it is easy to get religion when you invest so much blood, sweat, and tears in a company, especially a startup. However, once you see or allow yourself to see the same management BS at your company as any other company, then the wheels will start coming off. It is not an INFN thing, it is a human thing.
I have zero inside information on INFN, but I suspect that for them to release lowered guidance for the full year now is 1) obviously hoping the DT good news will absorb the bad and 2) there will be yet another lower guidance later in the year.
re: Infinera Lowers ForecastStevery keep up the positive comments about INFN. You've been doing it for years don't stop now.
Oh BTW the person who asked if they are going to reshape optical networking. They already have and no one else can figure it out. Way too complex for anyone that exists in the space today.
re: Infinera Lowers ForecastThe implied point in your words is IFN's achievements are not worth $200+M investment nowadays. Is it a tragedy of the industry, or we have better choice?
re: Infinera Lowers ForecastIn my view, the PIC is not akin to a car in relation to a bicycle.
Rather, more like going from 4-20 functions in a multi-chip module to 50-100. big step, yes. Fundamental break through, no.
Several universities, several research groups out there have the ability to duplicate what IFN has done. What they don't have is the 300M IFN burned to get to the level they are at.
In my judgement, what IFN did on $300+M investment, could be repeated now for about 1/-2/3 that number, say $150-200m. IFN is first mover at this level of integration, but others could repeat what they have and leap over them given proper incentive.
Not to belittle their achievement. At least as much a business achievement as it is technical. It was no easy feat raising that kind of money, even though it was largely done during tail end of last boom, when money was relatively easy. And the technical step up from what went before is impressive no doubt.
More like the early days of integrated circuit development when going from a few functions to a few more always seemed like a huge deal than it is a real fundamental paradigm shifter like going from horses to cars.
re: Infinera Lowers ForecastNinja, I take exception to one of your recent posts:
regards your comment that "nobody else can figure it out". While Infinera has its' strong and WEAK points, don't drink that koolaid ninja about nobody else being able to figure it out.
Give a few guys I know 1/2 the funding infinera raised and spent, and I know of at least 2 teams that could give them a very serious run for it in PIC. Several others have at least as much talent. However, IFN got very lucky with regards to right timing and being able to self fund in the early days.
Founders sold out Lightera to Ciena at right time and raised much of the first money before the meltdown early this decade. At a time when it was relatively easy to raise funding.
They have done a fair job of developing a new platform based on their older ideas from the Lightera days. After all, the Infinera platform is really just the 2nd iteration of that same idea. Take all the photons into the electrical realm all the time, without exception and count on moore's law to make electrical processing always cheaper than photonic regeneration and reshaping. In the Lightera box they used the concept for a cross connect switch with embedded monitoring and grooming. In the Infinera box they use the concept for managing links in 80km or so bite sized chunks and retime and reshape at each DTN. The big difference is the PIC. which has some very interesting aspects about it and some serious hype... watch carefully what my RIGHT hand is doing, never mind the dancing girls and all that noise.. my LEFT hand is doing nothing.. really just keep watching my RIGHT hand!) Give me or any of several dozen people I know 300M and we could easily do what IFN has done. give some of the smarter people I know ( I don't place myself among my smartest friends..) 1/2 what IFN raised, and it could be done as well.
While I give them kudo's for building a company and advancing successfully their point of view that architecturally it is better to always take things into the electrical domain, I do not think they are the greatest or smartest without peer. Indeed, they are very very smart and far more successful than most. however, they have many peers intellectually in this industry.
Frankly, I don't think they (they being the Infinera leaders) would debate this. They are smart people who know how many other smart folks are out there... and I fully believe they know how lucky they are with right timing, right place and right connections made in life. Hard work, smart, yes.. but world's smartest? Hardly.
re: Infinera Lowers ForecastIs it? Having worked at Corv and reading the posts, I see many parallels... Be aware INFN employees of the management Koolaid.
re: Infinera Lowers Forecastsailboar said: "Give a few guys I know 1/2 the funding infinera raised and spent, and I know of at least 2 teams that could give them a very serious run for it in PIC. Several others have at least as much talent. However, IFN got very lucky with regards to right timing and being able to self fund in the early days."
Well, I guess ninja's phrase "nobody else can figure it out" is vague enough to include the whole thing - technical advances, the funding, and the pure luck needed to make the whole thing come together.
So in as much as no other company has been able to combine these three things, then I have to agree with ninja.
Sailboat - "two out of three aint bad" does not apply here :-)
The important question is whether any other company will be able to duplicate, much less improve on what Infinera has done. My top three candidates are Huawei, NEC and Fujitsu. And last time I looked none of these were US companies.
So supporting Infinera is the downright patriotic thing to do!
Secondly, it is easy to get religion when you invest so much blood, sweat, and tears in a company, especially a startup. However, once you see or allow yourself to see the same management BS at your company as any other company, then the wheels will start coming off. It is not an INFN thing, it is a human thing.
I have zero inside information on INFN, but I suspect that for them to release lowered guidance for the full year now is 1) obviously hoping the DT good news will absorb the bad and 2) there will be yet another lower guidance later in the year.