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falsecut 12/5/2012 | 4:07:43 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red "Short the stock then and get back with me in 3 months." Is three business days enough? Shares dropped to 360 in after hours trading. My advice, dump your stock. And I wouldn't wait three months.
LightMan 12/5/2012 | 4:08:06 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red The announced reason for Yahoo's weakness is due to weak search results. I can guarantee you that Google is taking market share from Yahoo.

Short the stock then and get back with me in 3months.
LightMan 12/5/2012 | 4:08:06 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red The announced reason for Yahoo's weakness is due to weak search results. I can guarantee you that Google is taking market share from Yahoo.

Short the stock then and get back with me in 3months.
Scott Raynovich 12/5/2012 | 4:08:07 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Not sure if you all saw, but I took a more detailed look at Google, including implied growth rates, here:

http://www.lightreading.com/do...

Scott Raynovich 12/5/2012 | 4:08:07 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Not sure if you all saw, but I took a more detailed look at Google, including implied growth rates, here:

http://www.lightreading.com/do...

LightMan 12/5/2012 | 4:08:08 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Bet against it then for the next 6 months. I'm in at 293 and figure that my way of thinking will prevail for the next 6 months.

Who knows though. With google talk and the audio insertion company they just bought they could possibly be thinking that they will insert audio ad's before everyone makes a "free" phone call.

Not as targeted, but they will have the general demographic age/etc. just like the TV networks have.

falsecut 12/5/2012 | 4:08:08 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >Bet against it then for the next 6 months. I'm in at 293 and figure that my way of thinking will prevail for the next 6 months.<

That's "greater fool" thinking, you know I can buy this stock at this ridiculous price because some other fool will take it off my hands at a higher price. You found enough fools, if I am right, to cushion you. The problem with betting against or for Google stock is that the downside would appear to be much greater than the upside. Yahoo's disappointing earnings for 4Q tanked the stock 20%. That's 80 points for Google if they had a similar issue. If they surpise the analysts, will they go up 80 points? I don't think so.

>Not as targeted, but they will have the general demographic age/etc. just like the TV networks have.< $25B worth? To be worth the same investment dollars, remember this is a shareholder return issue, you need to quintuple revenue. They can do that?
falsecut 12/5/2012 | 4:08:09 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >I tend to think it is undervalued, esp. in >relation to the crap/hype that cisco slings.

Google really can't turn it's profit margins up anymore (they are 62% gross, 25% net; hard to move up much from there) so they have to increase revenue.

<snip>

WRT, google. I spend $35k a MONTH with my little 3 person company. My expenditures yield 4x in sales. I figure 10,000's of small businesses have yet to tap into Google to further propell its revenues.

So the S&P 500 is returning about a PE of 18. Google's PE is at 98, so in order to match market performance, they have to increase revenue by 5.5 times, or almost $24B, that's billion, and keep those profit margins. And that's just match market performance. If an investor is going to absorb that kind of risk premium, they will want to BEAT the market, not match it.

You think it's undervalued? You think that there is $25B in advertising out there just waiting to be tapped by Google? (That, by the way, would be every nickel that Viacom had of revenue, plus a couple of billion more; Disney's revenue was $32B last year). You want to pay that kind of market premium on the chance they can find it? You really think that is an undervalued stock?</snip>
Garam Masala 12/5/2012 | 4:08:09 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red How about www.Gizoogle.com ?
startup_shutup 12/5/2012 | 4:08:14 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >> Give it a rest

As I said I would take every opportunity to document:

1. VC Excess

2. Junk Startup culture

3. Credit bubble & money creation process (causes 1 & 2 above)
deauxfaux 12/5/2012 | 4:08:15 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red You are like a William Hung broken record: an awful performance over and over again. Give it a rest
startup_shutup 12/5/2012 | 4:08:15 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >> I'm out of telecom (thank god) but come here to entertain myself on rare occassion.

I am out of telecom and stratups (I call them JUNKUPS) ... Thank god!!!
LightMan 12/5/2012 | 4:08:18 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red I tend to think it is undervalued, esp. in relation to the crap/hype that cisco slings.

Cisco hasn't come through on any of their initiatives - optical- nope, voip- eh, Broadband access - crap, wireless - not happenning, and now consumer... What they have is brand equity which is quickly diminishing as people find out the real story.

I'm out of telecom (thank god) but come here to entertain myself on rare occassion.

WRT, google. I spend $35k a MONTH with my little 3 person company. My expenditures yield 4x in sales. I figure 10,000's of small businesses have yet to tap into Google to further propell its revenues.
whyiswhy 12/5/2012 | 4:08:22 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Food for legal thought:

Certain US based directors of certain IP-stealing foreign companies ought to look out for their personal wallets when the lawyers of certain US IP interests get wise. It's not as if the US directors can claim to be ignorant of the theft.

Under SO, that makes them personally liable, methinks. At least that is my theory.

Oh, and I would think statute of limitations governs, so it might go to behavior as old as seven years ago.

-Why
Roshani 12/5/2012 | 4:08:26 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Goeran says

There will be lots of competition for Google from Asia (s.Korea/China)

__________________________________________________

You mean "There will be lots of competition for Google from Asia (s.Korea/China) IN ASIA", right? You can't be serious comparing Google technology to others.

Check out your favorite blog -

http://china-netinvestor.blogs...

There is always the "government" element involved not so much technology.

Check out Baidu related
whyiswhy 12/5/2012 | 4:08:28 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red The Korean war never ended.

The Korean unions and communists will lower S Korea to N Koreas level, which will open the door to "Daddy" China.

And the thing is: they think nobody has remembered or figured it out.

And what Japanese consumer electronics? That story was over ten years ago. Sony, Panasonic are soooooo OTH.

ROTFLMAO

-Why
Goeran 12/5/2012 | 4:08:37 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red And you sir, clearly have no idea about the internet, competition, asian engineers, low barriers to entry and the rise of Asia in general.

Well, keep dreaming. But remember that there was a time when we laughed about japanese cars and japanese consumer electronics.
startup_shutup 12/5/2012 | 4:08:37 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Goeran,

I love you.

Long live asia (outsourcing) and fall of dollar (FIAT currency)....
whyiswhy 12/5/2012 | 4:08:41 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Korean search engine as competition to Google?

ROTFLMAO!

You sir, clearly have no idea how big Google is...

What Google might be vulnerable to is applique ripoffs of their engine...but that can be cutoff.

-Why
Goeran 12/5/2012 | 4:08:43 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red There will be lots of competition for Google from Asia (s.Korea/China).

Read this story:
"Korea's NHN thumps Google at home, and it's teaching the big dogs a new trick"

http://china-netinvestor.blogs...
whyiswhy 12/5/2012 | 4:08:44 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Yea, umhh Scott:

Figured out how to scrub all those porn searches from Googles files? What's this with the neo-nazis seeking a court order?

-Why
blueshoes 12/5/2012 | 4:08:49 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Scott

nobody doubts that Google will have a hard time living up to expectations and their capitalisation - about 18% above Cisco (?) - is for sure vulnerable to even the slightest modification in those of expectations.

On the other hand this is an amazing company - not so much in terms of its current management,which is obviously OK to have got this far, but probably will reach its limits sooner or later - but in its theoretical opportunity.

One would have to say that in its position as potential global manager of a very high degree of global information, a five year horizon may not be the right timescale on which to judge them, since their opportunity for significant growth probably covers several decades.

There will almost certainly be a temporary correction in the stock but whether that will take place in 3 or 6 or 12 or 18 months is obviously the question.

Scott Raynovich 12/5/2012 | 4:08:54 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Last night I went back and crunched some numbers. I will probably follow up with a column, but the upshot is that if you calculate an implied CAGR for Google at the current market cap, assuming shareholders seek a 20% annual return and industry-normalized P/E of 40 in 2010, Google needs to grow 100% annually for the next five years and have earnings of $5B by 2010 to justify its current valuation (or yesterday's valuation, I should say).
longhair 12/5/2012 | 4:08:55 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red No doubt -- blueshoes and Google have jumped the shark. When it gets this vicous, its over.
paolo.franzoi 12/5/2012 | 4:08:56 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red
Startup.

Google is a startup. They must be sick, twisted scum right?

seven
blueshoes 12/5/2012 | 4:08:56 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >OMG, what is WRONG with you

nothing much Panda, I just don't like you, and I have an aversion to bullshit, which your blogs in particular are full of. Self serving, self promoting, 9 times out of 10 nothing to do with the subject of the website you work for, and deliberately and stupidly provocative. Sounds like you should become a politician. You sure ain't a writer.
whyiswhy 12/5/2012 | 4:08:57 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red "...and your little dog too!"

Advise: bubbles always burst. Get out, not greedy.

BTDT

-Why
startup_shutup 12/5/2012 | 4:08:57 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >> $140B market cap? Just seems too pricey to me.

Google > CISCO
Google > eBay + Yahoo

Scott,

I agree the HYPOMETER is too much into the RED

GOOG
Last Trade: 449.20 7:59PM ET
After Hours Change: 17.91 (-3.83%)
TodayGÇÖs Change: 17.05 (-3.66%)
Bid: 449.02
Ask: 450.00

Scott Raynovich 12/5/2012 | 4:09:02 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Personal attacks aside, this sounds an awful lot like stuff we heard in 1999 to justify the bubble.

$140B market cap? Just seems too pricey to me.

I welcome disagreement. In fact, I relish it.
blueshoes 12/5/2012 | 4:09:16 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Scott

you seem to be a classic case of someone who likes to have their moral cake and eat it.

On the one hand you waste no time in dissing any competition to LR, no matter how stupid and insulting your language, (the classic - I haven't seen opticalkeyhole (asshole) get turned into a mega-merger or words to that effect) but when faced with a company that actually seems to do most things correctly, you go positively sick-green with envy.

Huge orgs like Microsoft, with pots of money at their disposal, have been put on the back foot by them. No doubt their initiatives will take a while to feed through, but only an idiot would bet against them.

On brand value alone - considerably less than your own despite your mega-coporate-merger - it is being constantly reinforced by the gazillions of mostly positive daily experiences, and is if anything still grossly undervalued.

It may be hype to you, who perhaps wishes for an even bigger mega merger, and cannot stand the thought of anybody who disagrees with you, but compared to the whale of a google, you appear with your ranting to be somewhat less than a minnow.
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