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falsecut 12/5/2012 | 4:07:43 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red "Short the stock then and get back with me in 3 months." Is three business days enough? Shares dropped to 360 in after hours trading. My advice, dump your stock. And I wouldn't wait three months.
LightMan 12/5/2012 | 4:08:06 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red The announced reason for Yahoo's weakness is due to weak search results. I can guarantee you that Google is taking market share from Yahoo.

Short the stock then and get back with me in 3months.
LightMan 12/5/2012 | 4:08:06 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red The announced reason for Yahoo's weakness is due to weak search results. I can guarantee you that Google is taking market share from Yahoo.

Short the stock then and get back with me in 3months.
Scott Raynovich 12/5/2012 | 4:08:07 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Not sure if you all saw, but I took a more detailed look at Google, including implied growth rates, here:

http://www.lightreading.com/do...

Scott Raynovich 12/5/2012 | 4:08:07 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Not sure if you all saw, but I took a more detailed look at Google, including implied growth rates, here:

http://www.lightreading.com/do...

LightMan 12/5/2012 | 4:08:08 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Bet against it then for the next 6 months. I'm in at 293 and figure that my way of thinking will prevail for the next 6 months.

Who knows though. With google talk and the audio insertion company they just bought they could possibly be thinking that they will insert audio ad's before everyone makes a "free" phone call.

Not as targeted, but they will have the general demographic age/etc. just like the TV networks have.

falsecut 12/5/2012 | 4:08:08 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >Bet against it then for the next 6 months. I'm in at 293 and figure that my way of thinking will prevail for the next 6 months.<

That's "greater fool" thinking, you know I can buy this stock at this ridiculous price because some other fool will take it off my hands at a higher price. You found enough fools, if I am right, to cushion you. The problem with betting against or for Google stock is that the downside would appear to be much greater than the upside. Yahoo's disappointing earnings for 4Q tanked the stock 20%. That's 80 points for Google if they had a similar issue. If they surpise the analysts, will they go up 80 points? I don't think so.

>Not as targeted, but they will have the general demographic age/etc. just like the TV networks have.< $25B worth? To be worth the same investment dollars, remember this is a shareholder return issue, you need to quintuple revenue. They can do that?
falsecut 12/5/2012 | 4:08:09 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >I tend to think it is undervalued, esp. in >relation to the crap/hype that cisco slings.

Google really can't turn it's profit margins up anymore (they are 62% gross, 25% net; hard to move up much from there) so they have to increase revenue.

<snip>

WRT, google. I spend $35k a MONTH with my little 3 person company. My expenditures yield 4x in sales. I figure 10,000's of small businesses have yet to tap into Google to further propell its revenues.

So the S&P 500 is returning about a PE of 18. Google's PE is at 98, so in order to match market performance, they have to increase revenue by 5.5 times, or almost $24B, that's billion, and keep those profit margins. And that's just match market performance. If an investor is going to absorb that kind of risk premium, they will want to BEAT the market, not match it.

You think it's undervalued? You think that there is $25B in advertising out there just waiting to be tapped by Google? (That, by the way, would be every nickel that Viacom had of revenue, plus a couple of billion more; Disney's revenue was $32B last year). You want to pay that kind of market premium on the chance they can find it? You really think that is an undervalued stock?</snip>
Garam Masala 12/5/2012 | 4:08:09 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red How about www.Gizoogle.com ?
startup_shutup 12/5/2012 | 4:08:14 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >> Give it a rest

As I said I would take every opportunity to document:

1. VC Excess

2. Junk Startup culture

3. Credit bubble & money creation process (causes 1 & 2 above)
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