& cplSiteName &
Comments
Newest First  |  Oldest First  |  Threaded View        ADD A COMMENT
Page 1 / 8   >   >>
warbucks
warbucks
12/4/2012 | 8:04:30 PM
re: Fiber Utilization Figures Challenged
If memory serves, the Ching article was the one that quoted "39 million miles of fiber" without any distinction between fiber miles and route miles. Divide 39 million by 96 fibers to a cable, and multiple cables in certain rights of way, and his 39 milliion number really shrinks. Overlay the argument of lit versus unlit, and the number shrinks even more.

Ching's defense using average use rates illustrates how he just has not done his homework. A network built upon average use would have a service level approaching useless for data.

Like a lot of analysts, Ching seems to be stuck in the low Hz world of voice telephony. But I do give him some credit, he is light years ahead of the crap I have been reading from other journalists with a pedestrian knowledge of optics and telcom.
CogswellCogs
CogswellCogs
12/4/2012 | 8:04:30 PM
re: Fiber Utilization Figures Challenged
This demonstrates why David Smith is a VP at Corvis and not an industry analyst - he has a grasp of logic. It is not surprising that he is actually involved with producing something of value, vs. the contribution of analysts.
PhotonGolf
PhotonGolf
12/4/2012 | 8:04:29 PM
re: Fiber Utilization Figures Challenged

If the utilization is higher then generally thought (in the press anyway) ...

And the Corvis guy's assessment that the carrier with more capacity is in better position (from an inventory perspective) ...

Why would there not be more pull for 40G outside of Qwest (Nortel)? Is it because the right-of-way-non-believers don't understand the network business, but only commodities?

Assuming the economics come (and they will), this article (and Smith's assertion) seem to be supporting that a manageable 40G solution would get traction.

Am I stretching too far?

P
flanker
flanker
12/4/2012 | 8:04:26 PM
re: Fiber Utilization Figures Challenged
"Assuming the economics come (and they will), this article (and Smith's assertion) seem to be supporting that a manageable 40G solution would get traction."

Sure, in five years. 40G has to overcome not only the capex drought in the carrier's carrier sector; but also the readiness of tier One IP backbone operators to route at 40G throughput.

Can someone point me to the Ching analysis?
realguy
realguy
12/4/2012 | 8:04:26 PM
re: Fiber Utilization Figures Challenged
"Assuming the economics come (and they will), this article (and Smith's assertion) seem to be supporting that a manageable 40G solution would
get traction.

A 40G system is not more data efficient than a 10G system. It all comes to spectral efficiency. Both system can currently achieve 0.4 bits/Hz. In fact due to dispersion and nonlinearity a 10G system will outperform a 40G any day.

The rational for 40G still is not very clear.
cyber_techy
cyber_techy
12/4/2012 | 8:04:25 PM
re: Fiber Utilization Figures Challenged
I heard they laid off 50+ people. Is is true?
ownstock
ownstock
12/4/2012 | 8:04:24 PM
re: Fiber Utilization Figures Challenged
The most telling part of the message is: the carriers are now in a strong buyers market from the equipment vendors perspective, and they are moving to a sellers market on service side as the CLECs die.

To be blunt: they will get the cash they need to be profitable off of rate / monthly increases already in the news, and bargain hard for low prices in equipment, just like the Chinese and Corning.

This will slow data traffic growth a bit, but not dramatically.

The IT paradigm is no longer how fast your Pentium runs, nor is it Windows XP and whether it has AOL on it, etc...but it is how fast your DSL line is...and pretty soon the press will figure that one out too.

So the optical equipment and component market will improve in terms of dollars, but expect margins of the incumbents to be challenged: price pressure.

The Comet has hit, the high altitude dust clouds are blocking the Sunlight, and small furry intelligent mammals are emerging...

Look for real returns in smart start-ups...

-Own
pluckon
pluckon
12/4/2012 | 8:04:22 PM
re: Fiber Utilization Figures Challenged
There is in fact a fiber glut. We know this from the following signals:

1. Transport pricing quoted on bandwidth exchanges has crashed.

2. Lack of interest from paying customers in new 40 gig per color technology. In fact, even the 10 gig stuff isn't selling because the 2.5 gig is so cheap.

3. Every article about the vibrant metro fiber space quotes only equipment vendors, venture capitalists and those "research" firms that are paid to be bullish.

4. It's true that you can't count dark fiber along with lit fiber, but you also have to remember that the cost of lighting a fiber is falling through the floorboards, which means we've got this huge overhead supply.

Underlying problem is a lack of applications beyond voice, bulletin boards (oops, web surfing) and e-mail. The bandwidth hog stuff like turning your computer into a TV ("streaming video") and video conferencing have not arrived. Same goes for video on demand.

TeleChoice's report had the ring of desperation.
metroex
metroex
12/4/2012 | 8:04:18 PM
re: Fiber Utilization Figures Challenged
Well said. And also I agree with your comment:

"Underlying problem is a lack of applications beyond voice, bulletin boards (oops, web surfing) and e-mail. The bandwidth hog stuff like turning your computer into a TV ("streaming video") and video conferencing have not arrived. Same goes for video on demand."

I believe that business purpose high quality video conferencing application might become one of the major drivers (Internet, SAN, etc.) for the near to mid term growth of metro and LH traffic. Today's video conferencing gears can only do low speed with bearable quality and very difficult to use. This could be an area Mr. VCs need to look into.

ownstock
ownstock
12/4/2012 | 8:04:18 PM
re: Fiber Utilization Figures Challenged
True...but I think the comparison to the railroads, or to the airline industry is reasonable. Some routes get premium pricing and all the traffic (cash), and others are give-away, turn-around-get-the-plane-back-home routes.

And there's lots of rusting rail in this area of SilliValley...I'll bet the average utilization of railroad track in the US (or worldwide) is very low, just like average bandwidth utilization.

SouthWest took all the business away from American and United, at least in the Western US....attacked the logistics, ops, maintenance problems with better ideas....and surplus 727's that would just not stop running...

Humm, sounds like the phone system to me...needs better logistics, ops, maintenance...there is still money to be made...just got to be smarter.

But that assumes free market competition...

-Own
Page 1 / 8   >   >>


Featured Video
Upcoming Live Events
November 5, 2019, London, England
November 7, 2019, London, UK
November 14, 2019, Maritim Hotel, Berlin
December 3-5, 2019, Vienna, Austria
December 3, 2019, New York, New York
March 16-18, 2020, Embassy Suites, Denver, Colorado
May 18-20, 2020, Irving Convention Center, Dallas, TX
All Upcoming Live Events