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stanhubbard 12/5/2012 | 3:49:27 PM
re: Did Ciena Overpay for WWP? ADVA is interesting to consider at this moment. They are a key player in the growing Ethernet access and metro optical markets, they have decent margins for their markets (44% in 3Q07), they have a number of Tier 1 accounts, and 100+ customer have purchased their Ethernet access platforms. Yet their stock has been absolutely hammered over the past year. Market cap has fallen from $515M in December 2006 to $149M today.

Much of their current problem can be traced to a dramatic decline in their WDM OEM sales through the Alcatel-Lucent channel ($24+M in 1Q07 but only $1.4M in 3Q07). They twice lowered 4Q07 guidance--most recently saying that they could be vulnerable to an economic slowdown in the UK.

Folks should keep in mind that ADVA's market capitalization has been slashed in half since their last guidance revision on 21 December.

Bringing it back to the current news, Ciena's acquisition of WWP spells bad news for the good folks at ADVA because Ciena is now one of the muscle players in the Ethernet over fiber access space.

When queried in November 2007 about a second carrier Ethernet access platform (CEAP) vendor at BT, ADVA CEO Protiva highlighted that his company is the primary supplier. He was dismissive of competitors like Ciena-OEM partner ANDA, which BT announced as its 2nd CEAP vendor for 21CN. Protiva noted that ADVAGÇÖs CEAP competitors are smaller than ADVA with GÇ£less resources and less focus.GÇ¥

That's not necessarily the case now. ANDA--which recently turned profitable--appears well-focused on its opportunities. And resource-rich Ciena appears determined to pump fuel into the WWP rocket and send the baby into orbit.
bollocks187 12/5/2012 | 3:49:26 PM
re: Did Ciena Overpay for WWP? Adva executives all appear to wear the same clothes - what gives with that.
Riverhigh 12/5/2012 | 3:49:26 PM
re: Did Ciena Overpay for WWP? Interesting ... Your suggestion sounds like JDSU fronting Mintera in the single digit millions.
bollocks187 12/5/2012 | 3:49:26 PM
re: Did Ciena Overpay for WWP? The prolem with all this is ATT saying they will buy from Ciena and forcing the deal on them.

Ciena should have simply fronted WWP and then built their own at significantly less cost than the $300M.

Just imagine what you can do with $100M in R&D budget to build a product like WWP - so easy.
bollocks187 12/5/2012 | 3:49:26 PM
re: Did Ciena Overpay for WWP? Stan,

If you are right then the Ciena could have bought ADVA for $200M and had a better overall product set and revenue stream than WWP. Also your comment on ANDA profitability come on Stan they are dogs medium long term like WWP they have no real "differentiated product".
paolo.franzoi 12/5/2012 | 3:49:25 PM
re: Did Ciena Overpay for WWP?
I think that you have to look at the price and say to yourself, "How did the Board look at the Fairness Opinion and get there from here?" Remember, without a banker telling the BoD that the price that is being paid is justified by the future look at the business.

This implies that Ciena believes that there is significant and immediate revenue upside to the WWP products. Let's just toss around some numbers.

From a Revenue standpoint, a more normal price might be 3x revenue. This implies a near term revenue stream of around $100M per year.

If I look at it from a conservative, cash basis I need the acquisition to generate $290M of profit within the relatively near future. If it makes $100M per annum at 20% Net Margin, then it takes a real long time to earn back the money I just took out of the bank and paid for the company.

So, did they overpay? Based on existing flows, they surely did. Based on the presumed AT&T business, potentially not. From a revenue standpoint. From a DCF model, this deal is a real dog.

cw.774 12/5/2012 | 3:49:24 PM
re: Did Ciena Overpay for WWP? Sorry not to add much here, but what does WWP have on IPI products anyway? Just different customers I've assumed (IPI CaTV, WWP - Telecom)
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