Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM

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real_class2001 12/5/2012 | 3:10:50 PM

re: Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM I hear from a managing director at the Westford facility that the plant may be sold and many employees will be terminated. The first sign is the sell off of various data units and what appears to be a shifting focus by ALU to consolidate facilities and streamline overlapping products.

Real

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wilecoyote 12/4/2012 | 9:28:42 PM

re: Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM Dan, you know if you don't do this deal Sycamore is dead. Maybe you're rich enough not to really care about what happens at Sycamore but there are many families that are relying on your leadership. You owe it to them to find a way to make Sycamore successful.

DO NOT LOSE THIS DEAL TO CISCO.

The irony here is really thick: you get another shot at making Cascade a winner. How can you pass this up?

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mu-law 12/4/2012 | 9:28:38 PM

re: Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM They have invested heavily in integrating stratacom/axis. CBX/GX has been in neutral since they were purchased, and everybody quit.

The only motivation for Cisco would be to keep this out of somebody else's hands... and if you believe what Volpi tells LR, this wouldn't be enough a motivation... certainly not for $600MM. ALA would have to admit defeat, and Nortel would have to understand the ATM market. The only one without a partner now is Siemens...

Regardless, I don't think ANYBODY would pay $600MM for this gear (or the people) now.

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farmboy 12/4/2012 | 9:28:33 PM

re: Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM It is no wonder Lucent is thinking about getting out:

Lucent has been gradually losing market share in ATM/multiservice switch market. Lucent went from 27% market share globally to 23% (2Q01- 2Q02).

In North America, where Lucent was supposedly strongest, they have again been struggling. They dropped from 44 to 36% share (2Q01 - 2Q02) -- a loss of 8 percentage points!

Nortel has been the main recipient of the market share gains.

All statistics from Synergy Research.

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Belzebutt 12/4/2012 | 9:28:32 PM

re: Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM and Nortel would have to understand the ATM market.

Nortel is the clear leader in this market (and gaining share) so I think they understand it well enough.

Interestingly, didn't Pat say that ATM is one of the "core businesses" of Lucent and it's a keeper? Just shows you that they're all liars, damn liars...

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wilecoyote 12/4/2012 | 9:28:31 PM

re: Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM Here's why they are losing share:

1) LU sales people who were any good chased their pipedreams in optical companies. They are all gone.
2) LU management doesn't know a good thing when they see it. They're too busy closing down their monumentally stupid acquisitions.
3) They are busy trying to fight for survival and not investing in the segment. Trying to milk a cash cow.

Where does Equip sit in all this? I know they don't have any customers but if I was Sycamore or CSCO I would buy them along with the Cascade stuff to make sure I had a next-gen box to go along with my cash cow 1995-built stuff. No I don't have Equip stock. Wish I did though. LR missed that one.

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orange 12/4/2012 | 9:28:30 PM

re: Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM He'll need to replace work force if he wants to relive the glory days. Lucent has ex-5ESS people running the show now, which may be why there has been nothing new for a while. But if Dan puts up a help-wanted sign out front, most of us would be back.

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moedog 12/4/2012 | 9:28:28 PM

re: Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM Why would Cisco buying Lucent ATM be a good deal. Most Lucent ATM products are about end of life or should be. Most Lucent deployments at major SP accounts are capped with only existing inventories being used. RFP's are all over the street for Next Gen Edge and Core. Cisco's MGX platform has never had much acceptance at any ILEC's so why would they put it in the network now. This is a non starter. Cisco culture of margin protection does not lend itself to any serious ILEC penetration even if they buy market share.

Like I said, this dog don't hunt.

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StartUpGuy1 12/4/2012 | 9:28:23 PM

re: Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM This dog might hunt if you look at it as a way to secure "footprint" at major RBOC's and PTT's that you can replace with Multi-service gear in the next 36 months. It is a lot easier to "upgrade and augment" than "forklift", even if you do have to replace the stuff. The only fly in the ointment is the purchase and support contracts that Lucent has with the RBOC's on this gear. Knowing their history, they are probably not a good deal for the company.

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phobin 12/4/2012 | 9:28:23 PM

re: Cisco, Sycamore Circling Lucent's ATM Could Juniper have a shot at this?? Can they absorb the debt load after buying Unisphere?

Juniper could really use to continuing rounding out its portfolio.

Anyone have comments??

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