re: Ciena's Q4 Beats the StreetAnalysts were "disappointed" by the 20 percent revenue forecast... Are they just being greedy? Is there reason to expect Ciena to continue to posting 30 percent or better revenue growth going forward?
re: Ciena's Q4 Beats the StreetAnalysts were "disappointed" by the 20 percent revenue forecast... Are they just being greedy? Is there reason to expect Ciena to continue to posting 30 percent or better revenue growth going forward?
re: Ciena's Q4 Beats the StreetQuick question: does Larry the Monkey force the writers to crank start discussions about their own articles, or do you do it of your own free will? "Just so you know" (wink wink), these questions sound canned.
re: Ciena's Q4 Beats the StreetQuick question: does Larry the Monkey force the writers to crank start discussions about their own articles, or do you do it of your own free will?
If you do a search of my message board posts, you'll notice that I tend not to jump-start discussions on my own stories.
In this case, I'm honestly curious: Is Ciena's giving a conservative estimate of future revenue growth -- 20 percent vs. analyst consensus 22 percent -- really cause for the stock to fall 10 percent so far today?
Personally, it seems a bit of an overreaction to me, especially considering they will most likely beat that estimate. (Note: I believe they forecast 20 percent growth for fiscal 07, as well, and ended up at 35 percent.)
re: Ciena's Q4 Beats the StreetQuick question: does Larry the Monkey force the writers to crank start discussions about their own articles, or do you do it of your own free will?
If you do a search of my message board posts, you'll notice that I tend not to jump-start discussions on my own stories.
In this case, I'm honestly curious: Is Ciena's giving a conservative estimate of future revenue growth -- 20 percent vs. analyst consensus 22 percent -- really cause for the stock to fall 10 percent so far today?
Personally, it seems a bit of an overreaction to me, especially considering they will most likely beat that estimate. (Note: I believe they forecast 20 percent growth for fiscal 07, as well, and ended up at 35 percent.)
re: Ciena's Q4 Beats the StreetAs a reader and with no horse in this argument, I feel there's nothing wrong with the author or another LR editor jump-starting a thread.
Psychologically, it is much easier for a reader to "reply" to an existing post than to "start a discussion".
re: Ciena's Q4 Beats the StreetAnyone on Wall St. is either being greedy or fearful. Its their job, how they allocate capital. In this case, the changed expectation in 08 from continued 35%-ish growth, to 20%, calls for a revised valuation.
The rule of thumb is the growth rate times the coming year's earnings. If CIEN is to earn a buck in 08, and they have a 35% growth rate, their stock should fetch in the area of $35. If that number falls to 20%, then it should fetch around $20. It is all a rough rule of thumb to gauge what the company could earn in say, 5 year's time.
The really interesting point is where the "billions and billions" of dollars John Chambers sees being invested in video are going. If you believe him (which I don't), the trajectory should be up. This is in essence the real problem.
re: Ciena's Q4 Beats the Streetif you are a student of the conf calls over the last couple of years you will definitely know they have become very conservative in their estimates after 3 missed quarters. If you are a long term investor it is hard to argue with their ability to grow revenue & earnings the last 2 years. ($26/share was a buying opp. some months back).
Bigger question for a very conservation CFO like Joseph Chinici (sp?): what the hell is he doing getting caught with a $13M loss in SIV investments ?
re: Ciena's Q4 Beats the StreetThe deal is I remember when LR writers would NEVER be the first to jump-start discussions on their own articles
That also corresponded to a time when there were plenty of stupid racist/ethnist/tribal comments too.
Putting the conversation in the correct direction is just fine by me. Anybody can still post on any other topic and derail the thread into something completely unrelated. Sorta like this post.
If you do a search of my message board posts, you'll notice that I tend not to jump-start discussions on my own stories.
In this case, I'm honestly curious: Is Ciena's giving a conservative estimate of future revenue growth -- 20 percent vs. analyst consensus 22 percent -- really cause for the stock to fall 10 percent so far today?
Personally, it seems a bit of an overreaction to me, especially considering they will most likely beat that estimate. (Note: I believe they forecast 20 percent growth for fiscal 07, as well, and ended up at 35 percent.)
If you do a search of my message board posts, you'll notice that I tend not to jump-start discussions on my own stories.
In this case, I'm honestly curious: Is Ciena's giving a conservative estimate of future revenue growth -- 20 percent vs. analyst consensus 22 percent -- really cause for the stock to fall 10 percent so far today?
Personally, it seems a bit of an overreaction to me, especially considering they will most likely beat that estimate. (Note: I believe they forecast 20 percent growth for fiscal 07, as well, and ended up at 35 percent.)
Current P/E ratio makes a high growth ratio required to get to a reasonable PEG.
20% growth nets a PEG over 2. That seems very high given Ciena's up and down history.
seven
Psychologically, it is much easier for a reader to "reply" to an existing post than to "start a discussion".
What's the big deal?
odo
The rule of thumb is the growth rate times the coming year's earnings. If CIEN is to earn a buck in 08, and they have a 35% growth rate, their stock should fetch in the area of $35. If that number falls to 20%, then it should fetch around $20. It is all a rough rule of thumb to gauge what the company could earn in say, 5 year's time.
The really interesting point is where the "billions and billions" of dollars John Chambers sees being invested in video are going. If you believe him (which I don't), the trajectory should be up. This is in essence the real problem.
couple of years you will definitely know they have become very conservative in their estimates after 3
missed quarters. If you are a long term investor it is hard to argue with their ability to grow revenue & earnings the last 2 years. ($26/share was a buying opp. some months back).
Bigger question for a very conservation CFO like Joseph Chinici (sp?): what the hell is he doing getting caught with a $13M loss in SIV investments ?
mellonhead.
That also corresponded to a time when there were plenty of stupid racist/ethnist/tribal comments too.
Putting the conversation in the correct direction is just fine by me. Anybody can still post on any other topic and derail the thread into something completely unrelated. Sorta like this post.