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Buttercup
Buttercup
12/4/2012 | 10:52:52 PM
re: Ciena: Outlook Dim
Not necessarily - if product A has 46% margins, and product B has 0% margins, it's still possible to end up with net 14% margin. It does not imply that product B is selling below cost - it depends on the net revenue from each product line.
PhotonGolf
PhotonGolf
12/4/2012 | 10:52:49 PM
re: Ciena: Outlook Dim

COuld someone take a swag at something for me??

If CIEN does sell $30M in CD this quarter, how many wavelengths would that be??? That is, how many modulators, drivers, etc.?

Thanks,

P
wdog
wdog
12/4/2012 | 10:52:48 PM
re: Ciena: Outlook Dim
Hey Perry,

Do you think that Soundview, one of Tellium's bankers in the IPO might be a little BIASED in their report?
puddnhead_wilson
puddnhead_wilson
12/4/2012 | 10:52:45 PM
re: Ciena: Outlook Dim
slocum over at soundview has always been pretty gungho on Ciena, so I don't think there's any intent to bash Ciena going on.

However, IMO perry's determination to crown Tellium the switch king becasue they project $55m sales this quarter & CIEN only about $30m isn't doing anythign for me. Besides making everything out of one quarter in a market that has often been described as "lumpy," I'm not sure that $30m number (if that is what was actually given) is all that reliable. fyi slocum probably got this from the 30+% rev nbr they gave for CD in current quarter & applied that to the $100m guidance. however, when Silverstein of Robert Stevens asked in Q&A about CD revs, he said it would be at best flat, and possibly/probably down for Q2. given in Q1 CD revs were over 30% of $162m, this conceivably gives an upper bound of CD revs of about $50m.

anyway, you can't just ignore who is & isn't customers, & what has happened where they may have gone head to head. Tellium only selling to cos it gave IPO shares to isn't exactly reassuring, nor is the fact that T has been rumoured to be testing theri switch for aeons now, yet it is CIEN that has the announced contract.

Good luck Perry, but, please, go a bit easy on the efforts to convert the heathen, ok? :)
perry1961
perry1961
12/4/2012 | 10:52:44 PM
re: Ciena: Outlook Dim
"Tellium only selling to cos it gave IPO shares to isn't exactly reassuring, nor is the fact that T has been rumoured to be testing theri switch for aeons now, yet it is CIEN that has the announced contract."

I was under the impression TELM gave these companies warrants to purchase shares.The Quest warrants are exercisable at $30 I believe.That is a far cry from handing out shares in the IPO.
Investors should be far more concerned with vendor financing imo...Tellium hasn't crossed that line....yet.
As for T going with Ciena? So did Quest and C&W...Ciena has a wonderful switch for OC-48,and these carriers will always use Ciena's switch first.But,there is only one game in town for OC-192(soon to upgraded to OC-768)and that's Tellium.
T is teasing Tellium right now.Like DT,they want a lower price point.But,their traffic is growing,and Tellium can afford to wait them out....I hope,LOL.
perry1961
perry1961
12/4/2012 | 10:52:44 PM
re: Ciena: Outlook Dim
"Do you think that Soundview, one of Tellium's bankers in the IPO might be a little BIASED in their report?"

Schizophrenic AND biased imo.They downgraded Tellium to buy when it was at their $8 target.Then they downgraded to hold because they think management overestimated revs for '02.He insinuates an upgrade,but only if management will lower its guidance.Weird way of picking a winner imo.
As for Ciena...the same analyst is passionately in love with the stock.Ciena still rates a buy,despite the disappointments.
Do you see why I say this guy's schizo? He claims he'll upgrade TELM if they will just lower the numbers.CIEN lowers the bar and gets a downgrade.
Go figure...
10gliteguy
10gliteguy
12/4/2012 | 10:52:34 PM
re: Ciena: Outlook Dim
From the Ciena Core Director Web Page:

Switch Capacity

Supports 640 Gb/s bi-directional capacity in a single rack. Equivalent to 256 x OC-48/STM-16 or 64 x OC-192/STM-64. Scalable to multi-bay, 38 terabit system.

Interfaces

Range of optical interfaces: OC-192/STM-64, OC-48/STM-16, OC-12/STM-4,OC-3/STM-1.

Software configurable as concatenated (e.g., OC-192c/STM-64c) or channelized (STS-1 granularity)

that was at http://www.ciena.com/products/...

Please have facts correct when posting. Don't go by the Tellium spin. They have always downplayed the Core director Capablilities.

Does anybody onthis board have any actual experience using a Core Director? Or even seen one?

10gliteguy
a_de_la
a_de_la
12/4/2012 | 10:52:33 PM
re: Ciena: Outlook Dim

The CoreDirector supports up to 64 OC-192c or
OC-192 channelized interfaces in a single
bay.
perry1961
perry1961
12/4/2012 | 10:52:28 PM
re: Ciena: Outlook Dim
"So far, Ciena hasn't convinced Cable and Wireless that this is the case. GǥThey havenGt demonstrated OC192 in our lab,Gǥ says Green. GǣI know they have plans to develop this, but the jury is still out on that. We donGt see a pressing need for lambda switching yet, but when we do, we already have a relationship with Tellium.Gǥ

http://www.lightreading.com/do...

Nuff said....

puddnhead_wilson
puddnhead_wilson
12/4/2012 | 10:52:22 PM
re: Ciena: Outlook Dim
>Nuff said....

sorry, but I can use this very article to point out the error in reasoning in your original reply to me (thanks 10gliteguy & others for setting the record straight on OC-192 btw). This article has C&W saying about Ciena's OC192 "We donGt see a pressing need for lambda switching yet, but when we do, we already have a relationship with Tellium.Gǥ Why not say the same thing about T? How can you say then (in that original reply), "TelM can afford to wait T out?" Even ignoring their despearate need to land a new custoemr (which even the TELM CEO seems more willing to admit than you), why can't you say, T has an existing relationship with CIEN (and in fact the very Ciena product that would take the sale away from Tellium!)

If it really comes down to patience to "wait things out" and existing customer relationships, as your reponses suggest, then how on earth could anyone not give the edge to Ciena, their 60+ customers & $1.9 BILLION in the bank (with ONIS), vs. Tellium, it's 3 customers, and $220 million?

I really don't want to jump on you, but you should consider your own arguements. If nothing else, ONIS' move to get in bed with CIEN shows that small niche vendors cannot survive just on superior products (even if we could definitively say TELM has that).

BTW, one last thing - C&W now has a relationship with CIEN (and coredirector) too.
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