Chips Start the Downslide

COMMENTS

Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View

ycurrent 12/5/2012 | 4:22:53 PM

re: Chips Start the Downslide

chips always have their own cyclicality. a way out would require a change in the secular growth rate.  As you point out, stimulus doesn't qualify... broadband investments for capacity boosts across core/metro/edge for video demand might.

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

paolo.franzoi 12/5/2012 | 4:22:53 PM

re: Chips Start the Downslide

 

At least in the old days, you used to be able to time the downturn is semiconductors (and the cooresponding upturns) by tracking Applied Materials.  Looks like this still might be true.

seven

 

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD

Pete Baldwin 12/5/2012 | 4:22:53 PM

re: Chips Start the Downslide

Remember 10 or 15 years ago, when the chip industry thought those cycles were dead? They were wrong, obviously.

It's really looking like the chip cycle is a plain fact of life. It's driven by game theory more than engineering.

For investors, I guess the trick is to not be the guy surprised by the cycles. (And once you've mastered that, you can advance to the semiconductor equipment sector, which IIRC has longer and harsher cycles. It's like the next level on the video game.)

Reply | Post Message | MESSAGES LIST | START A BOARD