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Drew Lanza
Drew Lanza
12/4/2012 | 10:52:19 PM
re: Caspian Closes With $120M
optical_man:

Some more thoughts:

1&2. [2 million on the internet per month. Don't know where you get that number, think it's a litte high.] I know. Struck me as high, too. But the source is the US Dept of Commerce in "A Nation Online: How Americans are Expanding Their Use of the Internet" which was published this month. In the Executive Summary they state:

"The rate of growth of Internet use in the United States is currently two million new Internet users per month...More than half of the nation is now online."

I agree that thereGs a lot of folks justing sending a couple of KB of jokes around. But as a guy who runs a little mini-ISP out of his house, I can tell you that the volume and size of emails has really gone up dramatically over the past 24 months. Obviously, thereGs spam, but letGs not count that. A lot of people are sending me emails in html with graphics and I also receive a lot of files with big attachments (we all learned about pointers in school, but most people send me the file rather than a URL that points to the file). IGm looking for the article I saw last month, but the gist was that the bandwidth required for SOHO and business email (per user) was roughly doubling every year. We talk to all of the analysts and consultants. The smallest Internet growth factor we hear is 1.5x per year. The biggest is 3x per year. Concensus is around 2x per year.

3. [You've figured out that a 10/100/1000 nic is cool, but when your home is 144k your machine is reving it's engine in the garage afraid to back out and drive on the 1890's muddy roads.] That was my point exactly. I bought the computer off-the-shelf and it came with a 10/100/1000 NIC card. ItGs a commodity. The enterprise is running at 100BaseT and going to 1Gb. My home is still connected at 144kbps. What is wrong with this picture? What do we have to do to fix it?

IP conference calling? Not if, just when. If you took all of the millions of folks like me out there and told them that they could exchange every tenth business trip for an IP video conference call youGd end up with a $5-10B per year market. Anybody out there got data on the effects of September 11Gth on phone conferences and video conferences? A lot of folks really hate to fly.

Of course, I also remember being at the 1964 WorldGs Fair in New York where AT&T demonstrated their picture phone. So I agree with your assertion that technology is not the problem.

Drew
photonicGuru
photonicGuru
12/4/2012 | 10:52:19 PM
re: Caspian Closes With $120M
If service providers are looking for scalablity, reliability, and cost as the factors for next generation routers, then the ATM switch vendors who has started delivering multiservice switches will be a major factor.
----------------------

No. ATM switches had their chance to replace
routers and it didn't happen. There is a place
in the network for the multiservice switches,
but its between the routers as a provisionable
transport network rather than replacing the
routers themselves.
-----------------

I do argue in favor of skeptic....ATM switches had their chance and this multi-service thing is new avatar out of these ATM vendors backpack touting as multi-services in box. Surprisingly enough, some of the incumbent carriers running mamoth IP (pkt) network actively participating in multi-service switching forum (Any guesses??)

It would rather better to argue changing core routers by optical switched network and shifting core router (+ aggregation function) pushing fat channels to optical core. Whole arguments are coverging towards taking two functional layers - electrical aggregation/muxin' edge (todays CORE IP network) with forwarding and tranport optical core. Some of the new hot startups in the area of CORE router are already back on their design boards for repositioning themselves as edge router player.

Decline in core router demand with large funding in so called core routing space is having enough fuel to dislodge CORE router from core!!
myresearch
myresearch
12/4/2012 | 10:52:18 PM
re: Caspian Closes With $120M
Drew wrote >> A start up company came by the other day. They had an interesting box for the edge of the network. ItGs about 2 feet x 2 feet x 2 feet in size. So I asked them what the speeds and feeds on the box were. They nonchalantly told me that it could process 500Gb/sec at wire speed. It had about 500GB of RAM. Oh. And did I mention? When you added up all the processors in the box it could process a little over 1 trillion integer instructions per second. Wow. 1 TIP. I wonder how you keep the damn thing cool? >>


Dont believe what people say. As someone who was involved in building several boxes, I can tell you that this box is more likely to be a toy or hype rather than a real product; the numbers do not add up (unless they have something truly ahead of our time). If something is too good to be true, it probably is. I am willing to say on the record that the box you mentioned is not real as a product. We can re-visit this in a year time:-)
flanker
flanker
12/4/2012 | 10:52:15 PM
re: Caspian Closes With $120M
Drew

I think your optimism is a little unrealistic but you deserve a lot of credit for being just about the only VC to respoinded to a story about one of his investments.
optical_man
optical_man
12/4/2012 | 10:52:14 PM
re: Caspian Closes With $120M
"Niche content and family content could ride along for free on such a system, which seems analagous to the automobile borrowing "

Forget about the residential user.
Just forget them. They (you and me when we are at home) are screwed for years.
The money is to be made at the Entreprise level. Their's more spending b/c they are running a business w/ objectives to accomplish.
Look at Cisco vs 3Com. Cisco wins, game over.
So, forget the dvd idea, and focus on what the killer app is when you are in your cube (just like millions and millions of other cube dwellers around the country).
IP Conference Calling.
(no, not video, just conf. calling).
rjmcmahon
rjmcmahon
12/4/2012 | 10:52:14 PM
re: Caspian Closes With $120M
Forget about the residential user. Just forget them. They (you and me when we are at home) are screwed for years.
_________________

On the other side of that perspective, massive companies exist receiving regular monthly payments due to their residential customers. (Wouldn't Yahoo be in much better shape if only they could get such a deal?). Its the residential customer who gives the last mile network owners, today the RBOCs, all their power.

Forgetting about them would be a fatal mistake.
optical_man
optical_man
12/4/2012 | 10:52:13 PM
re: Caspian Closes With $120M
"Its the residential customer who gives the last mile network owners, today the RBOCs, all their power.

Forgetting about them would be a fatal mistake."

1. I'm not forgetting about them, just ignoring them for 2-3 years. Why? The Rboc's deliver voice, and that's all their systems can handle right now. No more. And they won't upgrade anytime soon. It's a matter of truck rolls x employee hours x equipment costs x number of users x (increased revenue/actual numbers of increased new service users) = .20 / user overall ? No way.
2. Cisco ignored all the residential users and look what happened.
Imagine if they acted like 3Com and said 'home networking/routing is where it's at!'. Would they have sold all those neat routers and switches? Nope. Would they have 3Com'ed and split up into a million different pieces no one cared about? Probably.
So, attack the Enterprise users, and sell them something (like IP Conf. Calling) that they can use in their business, during business hours and you've got your KILLER APP that'll hog bandwidth and let all the readers of LR sell more gear!
skeptic
skeptic
12/4/2012 | 10:52:11 PM
re: Caspian Closes With $120M
Could this problem be broken apart and solved in a horizontal manner? Baseball owners figured out farm systems needed to produce more than pitchers. Maybe the positions need to be redefined so it doesn't cost so much for third party to integrate a complete solution?
----------------

Yes, but the problem doesn't break down horizontally very well. Everything is so
tightly dependent on everything else that
its hard to break it up. BGP isn't a standalone
thing. And MPLS ended up making the dependencies
between protocols even worse.

I think things would change if someone could
deliver true carrier-grade routing protocols
plus integrated MPLS. But it has not happened
yet.

And the other thing to keep in mind is that
even if you get everything third-party in good
shape, the support/matainance staff to maintain
it has to be there. The software development
can be outsourced, but unless there is the
in-house knowledge of how the software works
to a point where customer problems can be
turned around quickly, its not a solution.



----------------
Would an edge system which could accept forwarding rules from a third party, intelligent, core be a start in the right direction?
--------------------------

That always seems like a good idea at the start.
But what quickly happens is that the people
doing it discover that the software necessary
to deliver forwarding rules to the edge starts
to look not that much different from conventional
IP routing protocols.






PhotonGolf
PhotonGolf
12/4/2012 | 10:52:11 PM
re: Caspian Closes With $120M

Agreed on forgetting the residential ... no matter how many tunes my 15 year old downloads, and even though Napster was up to 30% of the net at peak times, its not a money maker. Period.

I go back to productivity. As of 4 months ago, only 5% of companies had fiber. That's the opp. Get those guys fiber and the conference calls become a driver. I'm a remote board member and do at least two (long!) conference calls per week. We've gone from one where someone answered our calls and put us on hold to an automatic login. Oh great - its still the phone company.

Here's a link to the Levin/Chambers speech at the Commonwealth Club. Levin likes productivity for the affects on tax base and standard of living. I like it for multiples. Take your pick.

http://www.commonwealthclub.or...

P
rjmcmahon
rjmcmahon
12/4/2012 | 10:52:10 PM
re: Caspian Closes With $120M
I think things would change if someone could
deliver true carrier-grade routing protocols
plus integrated MPLS. But it has not happened
yet.
____________________

That may be the fundamental problem with our collective perspective. Do we really need any more routing protocols based around network topology and access rules? A system built to transport authenticated content seems more interesting to me.

What seems to be missing are protocols and forwarding rules which support producer/consumer transactions, rather than protocols designed to help a network to survive an atom bomb. (And along those lines, which enterprise has been hit by an atom bomb lately requiring the complexitly built into those protocols?)
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