re: Carriers Want 100G EverywhereThe survey findings are certainly interesting. I too noted the 100G non-coherent finding. My take is that it is still too early and that 2012 will see more solutions. This will help. Equally while it is hard to argue with the view of operators that account for 28% of global capex, this is not the only market for such technology - there are large enterprises and the huge internet content providers. -á
One other finding - the survey found that colourless and directionless ROADM features are important now, gridless less so.
If operators are putting in 100G coherent overlays, is not gridless a must?
> I too noted the 100G non-coherent finding. My take is that it is still too early and that 2012 will see more solutions.
That would make sense. Seems like some carriers do want it, though -- vendors don't just develop products because the CTO had a weird dream one night. (They, uh, don't... do they?)
> - the survey found that colourless and directionless ROADM features are important now, gridless less so. If operators are putting in 100G coherent overlays, is not gridless a must?
100G can fit in the grid and co-exist with 10G, so they wouldn't need gridless right away. I keep hearing convictions that gridless is absolutely necessary for 400G/Terabit, though, which you'd think would mean carriers should start planning for it.
As for 100G coherent, our sample was definitely not skewed towards the target customers. But some respondents indicated they were familair with it but did not think it would acheive a significant economic advantage over coherent in the timeframes they would need it. I think the jury is still out.
A lot of money will be spent on non-coherent 100G when available.....these target customers were obviously not included in the study. Just saying....
You could be right. But the fact is there isn't much non-coherent out in the field being tested now, and the one company that pushed non-coherent 100G in a big way (Huawei) fell flat on their face at BT. Just saying.
Haven't seen the Infonetics report, but some numbers I got from Ovum last month suggested that 40G shipments would accelerate (to $3B) in about half the time it took 100G to do so, another confirmation of the 'short-lived' 40G thesis.
I seem to recall 40G back in 2000 with Qtera/NorTel. While 40G transmission has come a long pothilled road it has survived. 100G will undoubtly continue to grow IMHO but it will be a while yet. The only question here is time.
One other finding - the survey found that colourless and directionless ROADM features are important now, gridless less so.
If operators are putting in 100G coherent overlays, is not gridless a must?