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lagreuse 12/4/2012 | 8:28:21 PM
re: Carriers Navigate Dark Waters oc-3072

"SYCM - Can't scale beyond 64x64 and are hamstrung by components availability."

"hamstrung by component availability", I though that what the least of the equipment providers' problems. Can you elaborate on this.

Thanx
lagreuse 12/4/2012 | 8:28:21 PM
re: Carriers Navigate Dark Waters "SYCM - Can't scale beyond 64x64 and are hamstrung by components availability."

"hamstrung by component availability", I though that what the least of the equipment providers' problems. Can someone elaborate on this.
Pierre 12/4/2012 | 8:28:20 PM
re: Carriers Navigate Dark Waters Folks,

While all of the talk has been focused around CAPEX and cutting-edge technologies, can someone give me an answer to what I believe (in my humble opinion) is the biggest obstacle to the Telliums, Caspians and Hyperchips out there:

Why would any carrier, be they CLEC (ALGX), Greenfield (TSIX) or old-school (Q), invest millions in an unproven Terabit/Petabit core router when they can stack CSCO routers selling at 20 cents on the dollar? Simply put, the capacity far outstrips demand, and the need for the 18-24 month period simply does not warrant the capacity that these routers *CLAIM* to be able to scale to.

Any input would be greatly appreciated.

Shareholdervalue 12/4/2012 | 8:28:20 PM
re: Carriers Navigate Dark Waters Does anyone believe it's possible to use both Tellium and Ciena in the same network?

If so, I might have the software to make it happen. I'm already talking to both companies, but they are waiting for a customer to drive them.

Can anyone help?
wdog 12/4/2012 | 8:28:18 PM
re: Carriers Navigate Dark Waters Optinuts is right, scale and grooming are the issue. Provisioning, protecting, monitoring, and managing sub-OC-48 circuits require grooming switches. Carriers are going to need very large grooming switches
cfaller 12/4/2012 | 8:28:18 PM
re: Carriers Navigate Dark Waters IMHO, it's a back office issue. The cost of buying the box is only part of the equation. Consider:

How practical is it to use up valuable rack and colo space stacking bunches of routers?

How much more power will be needed with these bunches of routers?

How will your provisioning intervals hold up if you have to design and build a service through multiple routers/aggregation elements, versus a couple aggregation elements at the edge and the core?

How much love will your techs give you if they're constantly troubleshooting through stacks of CSCO routers?

You do bring up an interesting point, however. The capacity of products out there now (and on the horizon) does indeed outstrip demand, and equipment vendors are going to get hurt by this imbalance.
nonobvious 12/4/2012 | 8:28:17 PM
re: Carriers Navigate Dark Waters > Why do I want to manage tens of thousands of STS-1 circuits in my core transmission network?

Because STS-1's (and STS-1 multiples) are what you are actually selling. What would you rather manage, STS-1's in the core, or an entirely additional, redundant network layer? Remember that the CoreDirector software makes it extremely easy to manage these STS-1s with point-and-click provisioning, flow-through NMS-EMS interface, etc.

> I would also contend that the CD cannot scale to the levels I need for a core machine

The architecture of the CD is inherently scalable, but there are engineering challenges. Same for anyone in this space. Grooming capability does not effect scaleability. The really amusing punchline here is that grooming capabilities are actually pretty cheap, if you designed it in from the start!

> Do remember, the customer is ALWAYS right and he has just spoken.

Tellium has only sold product to its investors. The investors are getting the gear for pennies on the dollar, assuming tellium achieves liquidity.

Ciena did almost $40M in CD sales in the previous quarter, all to real customers with no vested interest in the product. They are ramping fast and for all practical purposes own this market for the forseeable future.
myresearch 12/4/2012 | 8:28:15 PM
re: Carriers Navigate Dark Waters Whether STS-1 grooming is needed depends
on the granularity of your customer trunk.
If you are only selling OC48/OC192, then
sure, you dont need STS-1 granularity.
But I guess most of the SONET pipes sold
are still DS3/OC3/OC12. The ability to manage
the flow at STS-1 becomes really useful in this
case. You want to slice the bandwidth
as fine as your customer want; this is the
whole point.
optinuts 12/4/2012 | 8:28:14 PM
re: Carriers Navigate Dark Waters lagreuse,
i believe lightreading mentioned in an earlier article that sycamores velio chips were late.
Fred Snarff 12/4/2012 | 8:28:10 PM
re: Carriers Navigate Dark Waters Great article and discussion! (see, readers can give praise where it's due)
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