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minnehot
minnehot
12/5/2012 | 3:13:01 PM
re: Carrier Scorecard: Impressed With Qwest?
You missed a few metrics to properly evaluate the respectives companies, such as capex and revenue growth.

Qwest has acheived its results by reducing Capex to barely keeping the dial tone on levels and reducing headcount and moving jobs to India. The debt remains at $14 Billion with access line losses increasing (not decreasing. No wireless or video story.. this company is dying, eating its seed corn, all in its effort to please Wall Street. The next few earnings reports will tell the tale - revenues dropping like a rock.
DCITDave
DCITDave
12/5/2012 | 3:12:59 PM
re: Carrier Scorecard: Impressed With Qwest?
re: "this company is dying, eating its seed corn..."

But it had a good quarter. So we'll see what happens next quarter and beyond. Should make for some interesting reading if they're as dead on their feet as you believe.
OneMoreByte
OneMoreByte
12/5/2012 | 3:12:59 PM
re: Carrier Scorecard: Impressed With Qwest?
> Qwest has acheived its results by reducing Capex
> to barely keeping the dial tone on levels

I always wondered why my parents, who are Qwest customers, could never get DSL service at their home in suburban Portland, Oregon. They are now satisfied cable modem users who nearly ditched their POTS line.
minnehot
minnehot
12/5/2012 | 3:12:57 PM
re: Carrier Scorecard: Impressed With Qwest?
You need to look at what Qwest mgt has actually done. It is slashed capex to levels well below any BabyBell in history. This action, along with the lowest headcount per customer/access line in BabyBell history, we can see how mgt is eeking out a profit on declining gross sales. Qwest has no wireless assets like AT&T and Verizon. They have no video strategy because they have no access to capital markets to deliver IPTV because of the highest debt ratio of any telecom company in the USA today, save Level 3. Access line losses are INCREASING. Cableco triple-play competition is just beginning in Qwest territory - wireless substitution from companies like Cricket and Metro PCS are only now beginning to appear in Qwest territories. Qwest has no growth vehicles now or into the future. What it does have is a dead bang certainty that it will continue to lose access lines at a rate of 7% qtr in and qtr out. Combine it all and this company is dying plain and simple.
DCITDave
DCITDave
12/5/2012 | 3:12:55 PM
re: Carrier Scorecard: Impressed With Qwest?
By their actions (and lack of aggression) I think a lot of people assume they're trying to prep themselves for sale.

Any thoughts on that?
DCITDave
DCITDave
12/5/2012 | 3:12:54 PM
re: Carrier Scorecard: Impressed With Qwest?
A BobbyMax classic on Qwest:
http://www.lightreading.com/bo...

DCITDave
DCITDave
12/5/2012 | 3:12:48 PM
re: Carrier Scorecard: Impressed With Qwest?
Thanks. That's why we're doing this, really, is to show what carriers will do when reality finally catches up to the numbers.

Without exploiting their own networks for sustainable growth, these guys are eventually going to run out of people to layoff.

ph
stephencooke
stephencooke
12/5/2012 | 3:12:48 PM
re: Carrier Scorecard: Impressed With Qwest?
Hi Phil,

I like the score cards, keep them going!

Earnings reports are a game that is played better by some than others. Are their rosy numbers achieved by cost cutting & layoffs or by subscriber growth. Accelerating landline losses are a really bad thing for these guys. In many cases, adding DSL/Internet customers cannibalizes their landline voice revenues via Vonage, Skype, their own VoIP service, etc.

Bell Canada is in disastrous shape. Rogers (provides BOTH cable and wireless) in Toronto and Videotron (providing FTTH in Montreal) are making significant progress in Bell's 2 biggest markets. The video that Bell offers is ExpressVu (a satellite company). They tried to convert to a trust structure to reduce tax burdens but that failed.

Telus had a 'good' quarter, again due almost exclusively to their wireless business and Alberta's economic strength (population increasing drastically). Once the economy slows down and if Shaw Cable provides wireless service (possibly in partnership with Rogers) those 5%/year landline losses are really going to hurt.

Keep up the good work!

Steve.
paolo.franzoi
paolo.franzoi
12/5/2012 | 3:12:47 PM
re: Carrier Scorecard: Impressed With Qwest?

No company on the planet would be stupid enough to buy an operating company from Dick Notebart after the Ameritech debacle that SBC faced.

seven
sjtechid
sjtechid
12/5/2012 | 3:12:47 PM
re: Carrier Scorecard: Impressed With Qwest?

This must be a naive question. But how can I find out which geographical areas the RBOCS are strong in? i.e where do they offer services?

I agree with Phil, the management within Qwest is probably positioning the company for an aquisition. 2/3 quarters of profit(by cost reduction) and they stand a chance.
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