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flanker
flanker
12/4/2012 | 8:06:20 PM
re: 40 Gbit/s Takes the Slow Lane
40 Gig is dead.

Long live 40Gig.
laserman
laserman
12/4/2012 | 8:06:19 PM
re: 40 Gbit/s Takes the Slow Lane
40 G is dead. Sorry Photonex. Clean up and go home!. We have 10G working. Long live 10G.

Laserman
cfaller
cfaller
12/4/2012 | 8:06:19 PM
re: 40 Gbit/s Takes the Slow Lane
Have any 40Gbps component and systems vendors given any thought to the law of diminishing returns?
equinox
equinox
12/4/2012 | 8:06:19 PM
re: 40 Gbit/s Takes the Slow Lane
40G will never die
PhotonGolf
PhotonGolf
12/4/2012 | 8:06:18 PM
re: 40 Gbit/s Takes the Slow Lane

Face it, when it is economical, it will happen. Duh!

The technologies are still being refined. Price points for some 40G technologies will not follow the 10G curves ... the entry point will be the same as 10G was just 18 months ago.

Tradition says 2.5x. I've heard those who would consider 4x ... just for the other efficiencies.

P
phos
phos
12/4/2012 | 8:06:17 PM
re: 40 Gbit/s Takes the Slow Lane
Ofcourse its economicsGă¬and thatGăÍs why I had predicted 40G was going to take the road off the cliff one and half years ago when smoke and mirror companies began promoting it. Among other data I had evaluated, I began recognizing 40 gig short comings after attending a conference back in 1997, when a speaker (J. Wilbur Hicks one of the original pioneers of fiber opticsGă¬according to the bio)...indicated that he felt going to 40 gig was "asinine" (note: I must admit it was a colorful speech to say the leastGă¬he claimed to have much contempt for the heard mentality that confronted the optical arena!) He said aside from other problems the dispersion issue would render going beyond 10 gig costly and futile.

I considered this view with a grain of salt until I began reading up on this guy. From what I had discoveredGă¬although being quite unconventional, it turns out he was the founder of the first independent fiber optic company even before CorningGă¬. He has something like 80 patents and some 1000 inventions going back to the early 60GăÍs in fiber optic technology. It was mentioned that he was one of the first to promote single mode fiber when everyone else was promoting graded index and was the first one to patent a practical Raman Amplifier in 1986 while with PolaroidGă¬(I guess even before the wonderful and heralded Huber acquired the concept and made it his own. Since then I believe several companies including SDL had licensed that patent among others from Polaroid according to an article I read in MIT Tech Review. In any case I began remembering back to what he had said and weighted it with a larger scale and realized this guy knew what he was talking about.

I reiterate its not that going to 40 gig or higher could not be done, quite frankly with enough money just about anything is possibleGă¬(i.e. 100 terabits lab test at lucent)Gă¬it is instead whether it is cost effective to do! Based on Hicks and now others, 40 gig will not be cost effective!!!!!!!!

Incidentally, I dislike it when others reference a scientist or a company but not mention itGă¬so not to be guilty of the sameGă¬

Gă¬according to a news article I read about 3 or 4 months ago, Hicks had been working with a stealth mode company, TON,LLC in Massachusetts on an GăúUltimate Fiber to the Home systemGăąGă¬some of the claims was that the system could bring 1 gigabit dedicated bandwidth to every building. At a cost of something like $1,200 per drop not including cable installation. I know I thought I miss read the number tooGă¬but thatGăÍs what it said!

Maybe with the market the way it is and the recent shake outGă¬smoke and mirror companies will give way to substance and innovative scienceGă¬at least we can hope!


Phos
phos
phos
12/4/2012 | 8:06:17 PM
re: 40 Gbit/s Takes the Slow Lane
Ofcourse
jmd
jmd
12/4/2012 | 8:06:17 PM
re: 40 Gbit/s Takes the Slow Lane
Neither. Shelf it but get ready to dust it off real quick when real bandwidth demand arrives and the economics and physics are easier to deal with.

Imagine pushing 40G with the money men who are certain there's a bandwidth glut. You'd get 30 seconds into your presentation.
ivehadit
ivehadit
12/4/2012 | 8:06:17 PM
re: 40 Gbit/s Takes the Slow Lane
if 40G requires new fiber, it will be used in new fiber builds, mostly in large metro areas or as intraoffice links.

there's a downturn in the market. thats the reason naysayers are out on 40G. we have to wait for a bandwidth driver application to justify deployment of 40G in longhaul.

phos
phos
12/4/2012 | 8:06:15 PM
re: 40 Gbit/s Takes the Slow Lane
What is your large thought doublebait...that the industry should push forward spending billions in a concept that ignores physics...dispersion is a reality...the small thought is following the lemings going down the same road like the 40 gig people have down for the last year...

The large thought is thinking outside the box with solutions that are obvious and simple!!!

Ofcourse...those whom have embraced 40 gig just one year ago, will be the ones stating with much veracity how, ridiculas that idea was when the laws of physics are once again remembered and the flavor of the month is more channels with tighter spacing!

...one side note...its going to be alot more difficult pulling the wool over the eyes of the money people this time around...albiet they are still amazingly stupid...they are much more suspicious today...although its true greed tends to erase sound judgement, when the hand gets burned the pitch will need to be based somewhat in sound science!

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