Ingenu believes that network could still be a prized asset to the right company. When rollout ground to a halt, the network was available in more than 35 cities concentrated in the southern US. Finishing the job will cost another $250 million to $270 million, executives estimate, if the operator's goal is to provide near-nationwide coverage. While that may be an eye-watering sum for a struggling IoT start-up, it is a fraction of what it would cost to build a 5G-based IoT network, says Gazzolo. So who might bite?
Discussions have taken place with Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), although Ingenu has still not identified a buyer. The question is whether any of these technology giants would seriously want to become a network operator. "People say they don't but it depends on the standpoint," says Razi. "If the cost is this low it becomes interesting." For a company like Amazon, he reckons, an IoT network could support service opportunities in markets such as insurance.
So far, efforts to find a third-party maker of access points have been more fruitful. Ingenu has now signed a memorandum of understanding with a manufacturer based in Asia, whose identity it will not disclose. Because that agreement is not exclusive, other such contracts are a possibility. Coming on top of the decision to sell the US network, the step back from manufacturing has already had a dramatic impact on headcount and operating costs. Having employed around 150 people in Horn's glory days, Ingenu is today down to about 20 staff, including contractors. Razi doubts it will ever need more than 35.
Can a company of such diminutive stature really make an impact on the global IoT market? Sigfox has around 400 employees on its books, according to LinkedIn data, and network partners in dozens of countries. LoRa has spawned an entire ecosystem, recently boasting more than 100 network operators worldwide. Then there is the cellular industry with its NB-IoT and LTE-M standards, which have now drawn commitments from some of the world's biggest mobile operators.
Ingenu seems a long way behind. Data it has provided shows there are just a smattering of networks outside the US and that only 1.4 million of Ingenu's 2.5 million connections are currently active. Sigfox was aiming for about 6 million by the end of 2018 (it has not responded to requests for an update) and some 80 million IoT connections are today based on LoRa, according to an industry source. NB-IoT is developing quickly in China. (See Can LoRa Withstand the Cellular Stampede? and IoT boom won't pay off for mobile operators.)
Whether or not Ingenu's technology is the best in the industry, its marketing has "sucked," Gazzolo concedes. That is partly, he thinks, because Ingenu has done a much poorer job than either Sigfox or the LoRa community at demonstrating the application of its technology. But pure connectivity will not be enough to make Ingenu thrive, says Gazzolo. "Analysts think there will be $200 billion from IoT in 2025, with $50 billion from devices, about $30 billion from connectivity and the rest from applications and services," he explains. "If we do not move from connectivity toward applications, the revenues will not be there."
It is largely via partnerships with utilities and other types of business, and not through in-house expertise, that Ingenu hopes to make this move. It has already formed a joint venture in Asia, where it is carrying out ten proofs of concept (PoCs) in areas including agriculture and tracking. In France, a utility that was disappointed by Sigfox and LoRa, and found cellular too expensive, is currently involved in a PoC for smart meters, says Gazzolo. While details of these activities are thin, he expects Ingenu to be in a different commercial position six months from now.
On the technology side, meanwhile, Ingenu is preparing to launch version 3.1, making the transition to an entirely cloud-based system. This should allow Ingenu to manage and support a more comprehensive platform-as-a-service offering, and lead to a tightening of security. "One problem we had before were rogue networks operating around the world without our seeing any benefits from a financial point of view," says Gazzolo. "Now we have complete management of the cloud globally."
A real signal of confidence in Ingenu's prospects would be a much-needed injection of funds, especially given Sigfox's apparent failure to hit fundraising targets. Still a managing partner at Third Wave Ventures, Razi continues to play a critical role on the fundraising side. A financial community that spurned Horn has been warming to the reborn Ingenu, he says.
But it has been three and a half years since Ingenu last raised any funding, according to Crunchbase, and this is not the first time it has tried to reinvent itself. Before Horn's arrival in 2015, it was focused on building private networks for utilities and municipalities. After its second coming turned out to be a false dawn, investors may be wary. For Razi and Gazzolo, it will hopefully be a case of third time lucky.
— Iain Morris, International Editor, Light Reading