Although there's nothing concrete yet on the topic from Trump 2.0, Washington insiders are growing more hopeful that the new US president will push through regulations that will help 5G network operators deploy more cell towers for services like fixed wireless access (FWA).
That would undoubtedly please big 5G carriers like Verizon and T-Mobile as well as smaller players like C Spire, which are already offering FWA service to millions of customers.
A focus by President Donald Trump on fixed wireless could also represent a blow to fiber operators like AT&T, which are hoping to use federal programs like the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) effort to subsidize their fiber buildouts. It could also impact cable companies including Comcast and Charter Communications, which are increasingly losing their core broadband customers to FWA operators.
However, Trump has not yet made any concrete decisions about BEAD specifically or wireless in general. Indeed, the wireless topic wasn't important enough for him to address it in his flurry of first-day executive orders (EOs in Washington parlance).
Still, hopes are high.
"We anticipate there will be changes that directionally hurt wireline terrestrial providers and help satellite broadband providers," wrote Blair Levin, a policy adviser to New Street Research and a former high-level FCC official, in a note to investors about White House developments this week.
"Getting more clarity would be good," summarized one lobbyist who spoke with Light Reading on the condition of anonymity.
Trump's executive orders
Trump signed dozens of EOs upon taking office Tuesday, but none directly targeted the $42 billion BEAD program developed under President Biden. That program is designed to funnel cash through US states for broadband networks primarily built on fiber.
However, one of Trump's EOs addressed the American energy industry in a way that was broad enough that some believed it could also be applied to BEAD.
A White House official offered some clarification Wednesday: "This ... only applies to funds supporting programs, projects, or activities that may be implicated by the policy established in Section 2 of the order."
Section 2 of Trump's Unleashing American Energy EO addresses energy production on federal land, electric vehicle policies and other issues, but it does not mention broadband.
However, that doesn't mean that BEAD, and other issues related to the wireless industry, won't be addressed in the future.
"The EOs to date have all been well telegraphed in advance and deal with subjects of strong political or personal salience for Trump," wrote Levin. "There are many more EOs to come."
The role of the NTIA
Now all eyes are turning to the NTIA, the White House agency charged with advising the president on telecommunications and information policy issues. During the Biden administration, the NTIA gained a prominent role in administering BEAD funds.
During his first term, Trump mostly ignored the NTIA. In fact, he never named a permanent director to the agency during his four years in office.
Now, though, Trump is widely rumored to be preparing to name Arielle Roth as the head of the NTIA, replacing Biden's NTIA chief Alan Davidson. Roth is a former FCC staffer and currently the key communications policy aide to Sen. Ted Cruz, now the chairman of the powerful Senate Committee on Commerce.
Importantly, after Trump was elected in November, Cruz sent a letter to the NTIA urging it to change its BEAD rules to eliminate "extreme technology bias" and to reduce "excessive per-location costs." Meaning, reduce spending by pivoting from fiber to fixed wireless and satellite.
"That is the variable investors should watch most closely as materially lowering that amount would cause a shift of dollars from fiber deployment to fixed wireless and satellite offerings," Levin wrote.
Indeed, the state of Nevada has been criticized for BEAD plans that allocate up to $77,000 in some locations for fiber connections.
"States could save tens of millions of dollars on their deployment efforts if BEAD could better incorporate cheaper yet still high-performing technologies such as FWA and satellite service," according to a new analysis by Ellis Scherer and Joe Kane at the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation. The group urges regulators to cap BEAD allocations at $1,200 per location.
From permitting to spectrum
"There is a feeling of energy," Wireless Infrastructure Association (WIA) CEO Patrick Halley told Light Reading last week, in discussing Trump 2.0. The WIA is the primary trade association representing cell tower operators and other wireless infrastructure companies.
"I think that we should all be optimistic," Halley added.
Halley explained that Trump's pick to lead the FCC, Brendan Carr, has long been a proponent of the wireless industry. Indeed, he has climbed a number of cell towers to bring attention to workers in the industry.
Halley said he's not entirely sure what to expect from Trump 2.0. But he said the president is already familiar with 5G topics from his first term, so "I think 5G is going to continue to be important in this administration."
Halley's WIA is pursuing a number of legislative goals with a primary focus on smoothing the permitting process for wireless infrastructure updates and deployments. He said the trade group is hoping to get its permitting language inserted into broader legislation focusing on more spectrum for 5G. But he added that the WIA would pursue other legislative strategies if that approach doesn't pan out.
"The president and his leadership has been here before, so I think there's less of a learning curve," Halley said.