However, growth will be even more rapid elsewhere, according to analyst firms. The Asia/Pacific market for Ethernet services already dwarfs that in the U.S. and could reach $15 billion by 2008, according to one forecast. The European market is also set to grow at upwards of 40 percent a year and will top $2 billion by 2008, according to other forecasts.
On U.S. forecasts, Vertical Systems Group estimates a 30 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) taking revenues from $385 million in 2003 to $1.4 billion in 2008. IDC has a similar forecast, citing a CAGR of 30.7 percent and a 2008 figure of $1.2 billion.
The Yankee Group is far more bullish, citing a CAGR of 57 percent and a 2008 market size of $4 billion.
Table 1: Forecasts of US Ethernet Services Market
|Vertical Systems||$385 million||$1.4 billion||30.0%|
|IDC||$315 million||$1.2 billion||30.7%|
|Yankee Group||$400 million||$4.0 billion||57.0%|
That still puts the U.S. market behind Europe, which Probe Group LLC forecasts will reach $5 billion by 2008. In its estimates, Analysys Research Ltd. notes that Ethernet shows the highest CAGR for European data services, 42 percent. Similarly, Gartner Inc. forecasts that Western Europe alone will see a CAGR of 48 percent to €2 billion ($2.7 billion), while even more potential for growth exists in Central and Eastern Europe.
But both the U.S. and Europe pale in comparison to the Asia/Pacific region, which has seen the fastest uptake of Ethernet services (see Report: Ethernet Exploding in China). Frost & Sullivan predicts revenues will reach $15.24 billion by 2008, up from $3.84 billion in 2003.
— Nicole Willing, Reporter, Light Reading