AUSTIN, Texas -- Competition is having a major impact on incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs). For example, after years of high growth, the number of ILEC retail narrowband switched access lines peaked at 181.3 million lines in 1999 and has continuously declined since then, falling to 162.7 million lines by December 2002. So what does this mean to the telephone industry?

Technology Futures, Inc., an internationally-recognized leader in telecom forecasting, has just completed a new report to address these impacts. "Forecasts of Access Line Competition in the Local Exchange," authored by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), documents TFI's latest forecasts of the future of competition in the local exchange and its impact on the ILECs. Key findings of the report are listed below.

The research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Qwest, SBC, Sprint, and Verizon.

According to Dr. Vanston, "Competition from wireless, cable telephony, and broadband makes continued erosion of ILEC voice access lines inevitable. If ILECs want to be more than custodians for a dying network, they must seize the initiative for the next generation of broadband and video services." He adds, "This will require massive, staged investment in network upgrades, as well as recovery of the investment in the existing network. The forecasts are intended to assist with both missions."

Key Findings From This Latest TFI Report:

Technology Futures Inc.