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T1: Service Provider Judgment Day

12/9/2015
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At Mobile World Congress, Cisco CEO John Chambers told Light Reading that he believes 40% of his service provider customers will cease to exist within ten years. Since then, Light Reading asked comms vendors around the world one question: 'Will Tier 1 service providers survive?' Hasta la vista… baby.
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DanJones
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DanJones,
User Rank: Blogger
12/15/2015 | 3:07:57 PM
Re: Yes, Tier Ones will survive...
So you expect AT&T and/or Verizon to disappear? Interesting!

 
joebillings
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joebillings,
User Rank: Light Beer
12/14/2015 | 3:46:15 PM
Cell Costs will continue to skyrocket even though there is competition
It is clear that the claim that people will not pay more for wireless (broadband or TV as well) is false.  It is well known knowledge that the big three work together behind smoke and mirrors to artifically inflate the cost and increased value to the customer, there is really no free market competition anymore.

Case in point - The wireless plans - they are all cleverly marketed and crafted so the average person cannot do any inteiilgent price comparisons, unless you already are an expert in the business.

When an intelligent person does compare plans, there clearly is not one that is "Lower Cost" or "Higher Value" to customer, they are all the same.

Same thing goes for TV and broadband services - all the providers have to have their own patented product which have their advantages and disadvangates - a novice won't know until they have been using it a while.  When they understand it better and they want to switch, everyone has the same pricing model at the end.

I'm afraid we have comditized this market segement to its limits, and the only way to benefit the consumer now is the roll back pricing and increase customer service, reliability, and service offerings.
nasimson
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nasimson,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/14/2015 | 8:34:14 AM
Re: Yes, Tier Ones will survive...
IMO among the ones that will stay will be: Airtel, Vodafone, Vimpelcom, STC, T-Mobile, Connexion, ChinaMobile, Singgtel. The ones disappearing will be: AbuDhabi, Telenor, QTel/Ooredoo, Etisalat, Telefonica.
DanJones
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DanJones,
User Rank: Blogger
12/10/2015 | 10:02:22 AM
Re: Yes, Tier Ones will survive...
Ok, so which carriers? I could see Sprint merging disappearing or merging in the US.
bobmachin
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bobmachin,
User Rank: Moderator
12/10/2015 | 6:30:39 AM
Yes, Tier Ones will survive...
... but in far fewer numbers, consolidating to achieve economies of scale and providing highly efficient advanced utitility communications. There will be maybe half a dozen in Europe, a dozen worldwide, plus some niche players. 
DanJones
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DanJones,
User Rank: Blogger
12/9/2015 | 11:59:18 AM
Re: Right on spot
The main sticking point I see to this argument is that major wireless carriers own their spectrum. Owning the bandwith is like having oil reserves, you can virtualize all you want but it doesn't mean too much without radio access in the first place.
nasimson
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nasimson,
User Rank: Light Sabre
12/9/2015 | 9:17:39 AM
Right on spot
Chambers is right on spot. Service Providers as we know them, will cease to exist. For sure.
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