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Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena

Light Reading
News Analysis
Light Reading
5/23/2001

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. analysts this morning downgraded Ciena Corp. (Nasdaq: CIEN) shares after the stock had closed in on the firm's price target of $65.

Ciena shares this morning fell 2.32 (3.61%) to 61.98.

The shares were downgraded to a Neutral from an Outperform rating. The analysts, who include David Jackson, Alkesh Shah, and Arij Mawji, said they were doing so out of concern for valuation.

"We recognize that Ciena remains the best-positioned company in the optical sector. However, our valuation work suggests the stock has limited upside from current levels," wrote the analysts in a report.

"Sprint's spending is at risk, we believe. Our industry checks indicate that Sprint [NYSE: FON] could delay network upgrades. We estimate that Sprint accounted for 20 percent to 30 percent of Ciena's [first quarter 2001] revenues."

Morgan estimates that the metro DWDM contract with AT&T Corp. (NYSE: T), announced yesterday, is worth roughly $40 million to $50 million but was already accounted for in the management's 2001 guidance. The analysts expect that AT&T will likely expand business with Ciena in the optical switching area.

— R. Scott Raynovich, Executive Editor, Light Reading
http://www.lightreading.com

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fhe
fhe
12/4/2012 | 8:23:09 PM
re: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena
1. MSDW wants to get more shares of CIEN at a lower price, so they can make more $ on the run-up later in the year. Therefore, the "downgrade".

2. MSDW's previous calculation was wrong! CIEN has reached their target price already. This doesn't mean there is a "valuation" concern, it means, again, MSDW's was plain WRONG!

3. MSDW is stupid.

4. ALL analysts are stupid.
wildcard
wildcard
12/4/2012 | 8:23:07 PM
re: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena


You must be one of those over intelligent engineers.

Why would they do that for a little puke company like Ciena? Jeopardize their whole reputation for a few dollars. You should get out more and stop sniffing your own fumes.
Oakster
Oakster
12/4/2012 | 8:23:06 PM
re: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena
Hey wilcard: You wrote:

>You must be one of those over intelligent
>engineers.
>
>Why would they do that for a little puke company
>like Ciena? Jeopardize their whole reputation
>for a few dollars. You should get out more and
>stop sniffing your own fumes.

"fhe" was only partially right. Analysts aren't just all stupid. They're whores.

Get the hell out of our industry and go chase the next "Big Thing" so we can get on with our business.
Cromwell
Cromwell
12/4/2012 | 8:23:06 PM
re: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena
1. MSDW does not have a reputation to protect. Review pending lawsuits...e.g. AVCI

2. Nothing better then having some book brainy person making $500k who graduated Top 6 B-School tell you what his overly complex spreadsheet has to say. It would help if the analysts actually held a job in tech for a few years. That would enable them to understand the process of building something of value and having people give you money for it -- as oppossed to creating words and numbers on paper that are invariably incorrect.

3. With the fair disclosure laws changed, analysts are dieing breed.


fhe
fhe
12/4/2012 | 8:23:05 PM
re: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena
wildcard:

It is "old news" that the analysts would downgrade a stock such that the trading/investing side of their company could "buy on the dip"; and later upgrade a stock when the trading/investing could "sell on the spikes"...

They even called themselves ANAL-ysts. That says alot.

I agree with <cromwell>, with the fair disclosure rule, these analysts lost their so called first-hand knowledge. So all they can do is to come up with something to "wow the street".</cromwell>
Titanic Optics
Titanic Optics
12/4/2012 | 8:23:05 PM
re: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena
>>Nothing better then having some book brainy person making $500k who graduated Top 6 B-School tell you what his overly complex spreadsheet has to say.<<

A couple of points here.

One--the lead analyst at MSDW probably makes a lot more that $500k per year, more like $1.5 to 3 M. I'd guess maybe more, as even at also-ran banks the optical-networking analyst might make $2M, and MSDW is one of the best. I can't even guess what they might make, but it's a good bet that they make more than $500k.

I interviewed with a firm once where the marketing person talked about helping one of the better known research analysts with a research piece. I had to laugh because the analyst's 2000 compensation was probably more than this firms' yearly revenues. (This firm has appeared on lightreadings Top Ten Startups).

Two--MSDW's downgrade is their own opinion and there probably isn't anything much to it, certainly nothing sinister. I'd be concerned about Ciena in that it has not had to acknowledge any negative news while its peers have. So hat's off to Ciena for having a good OXC and good transport equipment as well as a diverse base of customers, but that kudos is already reflected in its stock price. So if MSDW is worried about Sprint, then a downgrade is justified.

Three--Sell-side analysts are basically shills for the companies they cover, not experts and not independent, objective stock analysts. If you haven't figured this out you are a real sucker and I hope you turn over your investing to somebody else. Even if a Wall Street bank doesn't do business with a firm, there is no reason for a sell-side analyst to issue a negative recommendation (analyst might get a job at another firm, his own firm might do banking business there someday, etc.) It's amazing CNBC wastes so much time talking to these guys, who are by nature going to be bullish on the companies they cover.

Four--good analysts have a tremendous value in that if you are careful in sorting through what they say, you will glean valuable insights. You just have to be good at catching when they are full of sh$^#&, which is fairly often. And, most of the analysts that cover optical-networking aren't very good, they are just lucky in that two to three years ago they found themselves covering this sector before it got hot.

Five--
<<that --="" and="" are="" as="" building="" creating="" enable="" for="" give="" having="" incorrect.="" invariably="" it="" money="" numbers="" of="" on="" oppossed="" paper="" people="" process="" something="" that="" the="" them="" to="" understand="" value="" words="" would="" you="">>

As if there aren't about 300-500 startups where the founding technical people have no clue about business realities. In your words these people haven't experienced the real world either, creating something of value as opposed to creating words and numbers on PowerPoint presentations that are invariably incorrect.

At least Wall Street people are more honest and admit they are in it for the money and sometimes push the truth.
</that>
wildcard
wildcard
12/4/2012 | 8:23:04 PM
re: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena


Titanic Optics wrote:
>At least Wall Street people are more honest and admit they are in it for the money and sometimes push the truth.<

AMEN Wise One.


Folks,
The whole world is based on perception, if you can take advantage you do, if you can not you don't. I am not an analyst nor am I an optical millionaire wanna-be.

Step out of your brains for a moment:

Perception:
Cienna says good.
Wall street says bad.
Consumers are confused.
Proverbial Deer in the headlights happens we stall.


Reality:

Cienna has a decent product, but the solution is short-sighted. They are just trying to take advantage of the ATT hype, get a few ticks up.

Wall Street know deployment or any significant revenue flow may be a quarter or two away, if all goes to ATT plans.

The technology segment is in the shitter, by the way will be that way for a while IMHO, until consumers feel that technology spending is once again necessary.

The game of attrition is a cruel one.

Wall Street where one can person control more money then the net worth of your company, can buy and or sell you out in a New York second. You wonGÇÖt even know it happened until its over.

If all the players donGÇÖt play the parts the story is no good. Without technology you would not have technology analyst, and without analyst you would not have technology. As far as information and its dissemination well let the buyer beware.

Basically if the engineers kept their heads down and did their part by meeting schedules, and technology market windows, instead of trying to be the best day trader in their mind, Wall Street would not be crawling up your ass asking why your revenue is off, so they can tell their billion dollar fund managers be steady thing should get better soon.

BTW: I have played all the parts at one time or another in my career, and do understand all sides of this discussion.

Okay back to your brains.

wildcard

nonobvious
nonobvious
12/4/2012 | 8:23:04 PM
re: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena
I guess this is part of the package; they need to scare up some customers for those shares...
Brattain
Brattain
12/4/2012 | 8:23:01 PM
re: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena
please step into your brain for one moment...

wildcard wrote:
"Basically if the engineers kept their heads down... Wall Street would not be crawling up your ass..."

Blaming engineers for Wall Street's overly greedy expectations is so naive. This betrays your simplistic view of how complex technology is created. Basically, you can't just say to a bunch of people, "make a 100Gbps switch that transmits 7000km without regeneration, have it support all services that older products already provide, make it cheaper than anyone else's, and do it by Friday".

There are a lot of factors involved in getting cutting edge technology developed. Some of those factors are out of an engineer's control.

wildcard wrote:
"BTW: I have played all the parts at one time or another in my career, and do understand all sides of this discussion. "

Admitting you don't know something is simply being uninformed. Not realizing what you don't know is simply being stupid.

One final point, for someone who claims to know so much, proofread your posting or learn how to write proper english next time.

"Now you can step out of your brain."


wildcard
wildcard
12/4/2012 | 8:23:00 PM
re: Morgan Stanley Downgrades Ciena


and by blindersGǪ..

I meant that your perception was not even astute enough to see that the general candor of the post or the underlying theme was. All the pieces of a puzzle must fit to form a picture. We* are the pieces, the picture is the perception. Do you fit? When its time for your piece to go in.

If marketing fluff, sets the perception, and Marketing PLMGÇÖs control required development features, and engineers commit to tight schedules, usually unrealistic commitments. Well, once you tell this to the Analyst the ball starts rolling, and hopefully nobody lied.

When one of these pieces miss its mark, not quite the design we were hoping for, or the ever popular, looks like release x is going to slip a bit. Or even this mess called the economic downturn.

Like it or not Wall Street controls the money.
Like it or not Fiber everywhere is still two years away.
Like it or not Your still an ass.
Like it or not So am I.

GFYS

Wildcard

* All the world is a stage.
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