Level 3's Paul Savill: Not Hot on the Cost of 100G

So everything you said is not anything new. The problem is the bizarre statement you claim in my comment is no different then the numerous comments made on this very site by many predicting failure for INFN. The PIC was doomed to never be a commercially viable product and would only work in a very controlled lab environment. Not!

So after 6 plus years of shipping 10's of millions of nodes without a single field failure with the 10G systems I would not question or doubt INFN future success with 100G regardless of how many stages you claim need to be accomplished. Those stages have been accomplished before so duplicating it is simple compared to the initial accomplished of bringing out the 10G PIC itself. You see when no one has ever accomplished a technology doubt can creep into the minds and confidence of the most ambitious and talented company. However, that never happened at INFN. However to date, no one has even attempted to duplicate it or have the technical knowledge to do so now. ALU and CIEN have always and will continue to be at the mercy of the highest level of technology available from numerous discrete OEM component suppliers. They will continue to utilize the same commercially available parts everyone uses. As a result, they will not be able to control costs and bring attractive economic solutions customers need in order to jump to 100G platforms. You are already hearing that from customers now. That's because ALU and CIEN is all they can see today. No one is going balls out to re-pipe their backbone on those solutions. The beauty of the PIC integration is what differentiates INFN from everyone else in the optical industry and what will bring CAPX to the economic cross points required to convince customers to switch to 100G. 2012 is just around the corner and the 100G market has barely been sniffed out. So in time we will all see.