Juniper slumped in morning trading to $15.28 a share, dipping below a
52-week low of 15.74 set on Aug. 22. The stock staged a modest rebound to
close at 15.54, still well down from Tuesday’s close of $16.70.
Due to weaker demand for Juniper’s high-end routers, Merrill Lynch analyst
Samuel Wilson cut his earnings-per-share outlook for the September quarter
to 8 cents from 9 cents. Wilson expects Cisco Systems Inc.’s (Nasdaq:
CSCO)
release of its 12400 products to stymie Juniper’s growth, and he sees the
overall market this quarter possibly shrinking as much as 10 percent.
He also lowered his 2001 estimate to 50 cents from 52 cents and slashed
his 2002 numbers to 55 cents from 66 cents. Despite (or perhaps because of)
the downward pressure Wilson put on the stock, he still has an Accumulate
rating on Juniper.
The First Call
consensus of analysts is still a bit more optimistic than Wilson. The
consensus is 9 cents for the September quarter, 52 cents for the year, and 60
cents next year. The consensus gives Juniper a buy/sell rating of 2.2. (A
no. 1 rating is a Strong Buy, a no. 2 is a Buy, and a no. 3 is a Hold.)
Despite the weak buy rating, the consensus has a median $39 target price
over the next 12 months. That’s about two-and-a-half times Juniper’s
current price and probably not very realistic. It’s also an indication that
many analysts haven’t updated their targets after the most recent freefall
in prices.
Last October, Juniper was soaring at a 52-week high of $244 a share.
re: Juniper Hits New Low Sales of Ultra-High End Routers(OC-192 capable) rose 16% Q/Q to $286 million according to a Dell'Oro Group. But JNPR's sales in this segment decreased 40%!
re: Juniper Hits New Low Remember, for a long time, JNPR had the 10G router market to themselves with the M160. With Cisco finally delivering 10G on the 12K, they had no place to go but down.
re: Juniper Hits New Low A while ago, there were rumors about a new Juniper box (M320?) scheduled to come out this fall. Is there any truth to these rumors? Based on Juniper's product history, they might go for a 8x40G box (M640?) instead, though the demand for such a product would be highly suspect in today's environment.
re: Juniper Hits New Low Yep, LR said the M320 would be announced by SuperComm, along with Juniper's 40-gig strategy. I guess the little bird who flew in the window was a crow!
re: Juniper Hits New Low A while ago, there were rumors about a new Juniper box (M320?) scheduled to come out this fall. Is there any truth to these rumors? Based on Juniper's product history, they might go for a 8x40G box (M640?) instead, though the demand for such a product would be highly suspect in today's environment. ----------------------
Its actually the reverse. Perceptions aside, people would rather have the bigger box than the smaller one juniper is building. The M320 comes across as a another generation of "disposable router". Nobody wants to buy a full-up big router necessarly, but they don't want to buy a small piece of equipment that will quickly become obsolete and get scrapped. Like the M160, it's "just big enough" for a year or possibly two.
The rumor on the M320 is that the delivery date is slipping and it will not release in the fall. There is a follow-on (not public) bigger product after the M320.
re: Juniper Hits New Low This new box -- code named gibson -- seems to keep slipping badly first from spring then summer, then fall, now into next year. Been a long, long time since jnpr introduced product. Plus there are rumours of persistent issues with current boxes like packet reordering and overheating. Meanwhile Cisco keeps turning up the heat with new boxes and aggressive sales tactics, and Avici and the router startups nip at their heels. Even LR is writing something negative on JNPR...this must be the bottom!
re: Juniper Hits New Low sales reps are commenting the jnpr september quarter will be 125 million in revenue and an eps loss. merrill lynch cut their estimates to 200m and 0.08 on wednesday. i believe jnpr will preannounce an earnings shortfall next friday morning, sept 7, before kriens speaks at the salomon smith barney tech conference. this stock could go to $8.
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