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Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up

It's bad -- just not as bad as everyone thought.

That appears to be the reaction to Juniper Networks Inc.'s (Nasdaq: JNPR) announcement last night that it expects revenues for the quarter ending March 31 to be approximately $120-$125 million, down from its original guidance of $150-$155 million.

The recent buzz on the street, as reported here just two weeks ago, had been that Juniper would have a hard time meeting its guidance (see Will Juniper Miss Its Quarter?). That may be why, when the news actually came out, the stock rose 0.98 (5.5%) to 12.58 in midday trading today.

“There was no mystery here whatsoever," says Salomon Smith Barney analyst Alex Henderson. "People had to know that this was coming,” he says, pointing out that most financial analysts had already cut their earnings estimates for the company. "We first cut our estimates to $128 million in mid-February. I don’t think the street was looking for $150 million.”

The company expects that pro forma, fully diluted earnings will be slightly above breakeven. Its earlier guidance projected earnings of 3 cents a share. The company blamed cautious spending by its service provider and carrier customers for the expected reduced revenues.

“Juniper’s pre-announcement should not have been a surprise, we think, given negative carrier newsflow, capex cuts by IXCs… and the company’s emerging presence in the cable and wireless segments,” said a note published by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. analyst David Jackson this morning. The research note emphasized that recent weakness in the company’s stock had already sent a warning signal that Juniper might lower guidance.

Others say that Juniper’s lowered guidance was actually a positive surprise, not dropping as low as many had expected.

Still, some traders remain skeptical of the company's prospects for next quarter. "The Ericsson AB (Nasdaq: ERICY) deal was a substantial part of their revenue in that quarter and that's not a sustainable thing," said one hedge-fund manager who asked not to be named. "We think there is a psychological component to this stock: People buy it when it goes down because they remember when it was $100 per share."

And while the price of Juniper’s shares steadily rose today, several financial consultant firms were downgrading the stock. This morning, Needham & Co. downgraded Juniper stock from Strong Buy to Buy, and Wedbush Morgan downgraded it from Buy to Hold.

Still, most observers agree that the lowered guidance doesn’t reflect badly on Juniper’s business per se, but is rather a symptom of the slowdown affecting the entire industry. “Juniper’s getting clipped by the same blade that caught [among many others] Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) and Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE/Toronto: NT),” says Smith Barney's Henderson. And according to the Morgan Stanley note, the revised guidance was driven by deployment delays and carriers' hesitancy to spend money, not by competitive losses.

This was also the message that Scott Kriens, chairman and CEO of Juniper Networks, tried to convey on a conference call discussing the lowered guidance yesterday. He said that although the company faces “conditions that test both our discipline and our collective patience… [it is] continuing to generate cash in a market where few others can say the same. We’re doing it by remaining committed to our carrier and service provider customers."

During the quarter, the company announced several new customers and deployments, among others Deutsche Telekom AG (NYSE: DT), adding to an already broad customer base. The company also announced that positive cash flow from operations is expected to be in the range of $5 million to $10 million.

As for the company’s staff, Kriens' claim that Juniper will not be restructuring any time soon is good news. "When these markets turn around, it’s not possible to double the engineering staff and catch up,” he said. “Our product lead… is going to be protected. Period.”

— Eugénie Larson, Reporter, Light Reading
http://www.lightreading.com
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kephill 12/4/2012 | 10:42:41 PM
re: Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up Bad news from Juniper gets treated very differently by LR and the market than bad new from NT or LU. This is irrational but, in the long run, the market will correct.
cruiser 12/4/2012 | 10:42:40 PM
re: Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up i hear jnpr is losing business left and right to cisco. they have blown a tremendous opportunity by not expanding their product story and looking at other areas of the network including maybe transport or enterprise opportunities. they lack vision in my opinion, and now they lack the only real assets they had to get them on the map: focus, execution and a much cooler mousetrap.

sales people and engineers are leaving in droves. this will be a flame out of epic proportions. too bad. it was the rallying cry for other startups hoping to compete against cisco. time to join a public company.
Scott Raynovich 12/4/2012 | 10:42:40 PM
re: Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up I suppose that when LR reported two weeks ago that Juniper may miss the quarter, that was rockin' good news.
Belzebutt 12/4/2012 | 10:42:39 PM
re: Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up they have blown a tremendous opportunity by not expanding their product story and looking at other areas of the network including maybe transport or enterprise opportunities.

Chances are, these acquisitions could have caused an even bigger mess. So what if they acquired ONI or whoever, these same companies are in even worse shape then Juniper now, they would have just dragged them down. It's hard to manage acquisitions, by sticking to their product Juniper is avoiding that headache. And they did make one major acquisition anyway. Good for them.
Steve Saunders 12/4/2012 | 10:42:39 PM
re: Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up "Bad news from Juniper gets treated very differently by LR and the market than bad new from NT or LU."

The articles we have written do not actually bare out your theory. However, as a Nortel employee, you're probably not in the best position to realise this.
Steve Saunders 12/4/2012 | 10:42:38 PM
re: Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up LOL
Belzebutt 12/4/2012 | 10:42:38 PM
re: Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up The articles we have written do not actually bare out your theory. However, as a Nortel employee, you're probably not in the best position to realise this.

Come on Steve, that crooked maple leaf on the back of your Audi tells everything!
skeptic 12/4/2012 | 10:42:37 PM
re: Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up i hear jnpr is losing business left and right to cisco. they have blown a tremendous opportunity by not expanding their product story and looking at other areas of the network including maybe transport or enterprise opportunities. they lack vision in my opinion, and now they lack the only real assets they had to get them on the map: focus, execution and a much cooler mousetrap.
----------------
It would have made little difference. They
don't have the size to fight cisco on a financial
or political basis. All moving into other
spaces would have done was weaken them in the
areas (core of the network) where they are
strong.

Cisco can (ab)use its financial power and size
to muscle into deals, but if you look beyond
just sales their relationships with larger
customers are decaying. And in some sense
as a company cisco seems to be giving up
on those customers and moving more toward
a focus on segments of the market where
technology and quality don't matter.



Scott Raynovich 12/4/2012 | 10:42:36 PM
re: Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up Damn, Steve has an Audi... Steve, what happened to the Chevy?
Iipoed 12/4/2012 | 10:42:36 PM
re: Juniper: Guidance Down, Stock Up csco is sacrificing significant margins to control the destiny of their competition. Lucky for them too bad for their customers who will end up paying more for add-ons to make their systems somewhat competitive with the likes of Foundry, Extreme and Juniper. In the past they merely bought the companies to get back the engineers that left and then destroyed the acquired tech. IMHO
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