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Optical/IP

Google: Hypometer in the Red

5:30 PM -- Sigh. The third person today just pinged me about the Google/Blackberry deal. I hereby declare the peak of the Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) hype. Not necessarily the stock price (that's coming soon, too), but the hype.

After 12 or so years in technology journalism, I have a pretty finely tuned hype-o-meter. Two words: Remember Pointcast? Peaks in technology hype are actually quite clearly defined, and I'd say for a specific company, there are four key indicators: 1) Cutesy glossy magazine photo shoots; 2) news of fabulous wealth and riches; 3) stories of world domination; 4) arrogance and pretention.

Google is currently off the charts on all these metrics. It's worse than Netscape 1996. And we know how that story ended. (Netscape seems to currently be working a gig as a promotional browser attached to AOL IM client, incessantly spewing celebrity gossip once you open it.)

Now, I know what you're thinking: We're part of the problem. True. But, what can you do? You need to meet demand with supply. And given the traffic numbers that Google stories get, there's plenty of demand.

But like everything, the public tires of stuff over time. And there will be always be something new. I think right now, it seems as if interest in all things Google is peaking.

— R. Scott Raynovich, Editor in Chief, Light Reading

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blueshoes 12/5/2012 | 4:09:16 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Scott

you seem to be a classic case of someone who likes to have their moral cake and eat it.

On the one hand you waste no time in dissing any competition to LR, no matter how stupid and insulting your language, (the classic - I haven't seen opticalkeyhole (asshole) get turned into a mega-merger or words to that effect) but when faced with a company that actually seems to do most things correctly, you go positively sick-green with envy.

Huge orgs like Microsoft, with pots of money at their disposal, have been put on the back foot by them. No doubt their initiatives will take a while to feed through, but only an idiot would bet against them.

On brand value alone - considerably less than your own despite your mega-coporate-merger - it is being constantly reinforced by the gazillions of mostly positive daily experiences, and is if anything still grossly undervalued.

It may be hype to you, who perhaps wishes for an even bigger mega merger, and cannot stand the thought of anybody who disagrees with you, but compared to the whale of a google, you appear with your ranting to be somewhat less than a minnow.
Scott Raynovich 12/5/2012 | 4:09:02 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Personal attacks aside, this sounds an awful lot like stuff we heard in 1999 to justify the bubble.

$140B market cap? Just seems too pricey to me.

I welcome disagreement. In fact, I relish it.
whyiswhy 12/5/2012 | 4:08:57 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red "...and your little dog too!"

Advise: bubbles always burst. Get out, not greedy.

BTDT

-Why
startup_shutup 12/5/2012 | 4:08:57 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >> $140B market cap? Just seems too pricey to me.

Google > CISCO
Google > eBay + Yahoo

Scott,

I agree the HYPOMETER is too much into the RED

GOOG
Last Trade: 449.20 7:59PM ET
After Hours Change: 17.91 (-3.83%)
TodayGÇÖs Change: 17.05 (-3.66%)
Bid: 449.02
Ask: 450.00

paolo.franzoi 12/5/2012 | 4:08:56 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red
Startup.

Google is a startup. They must be sick, twisted scum right?

seven
blueshoes 12/5/2012 | 4:08:56 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red >OMG, what is WRONG with you

nothing much Panda, I just don't like you, and I have an aversion to bullshit, which your blogs in particular are full of. Self serving, self promoting, 9 times out of 10 nothing to do with the subject of the website you work for, and deliberately and stupidly provocative. Sounds like you should become a politician. You sure ain't a writer.
longhair 12/5/2012 | 4:08:55 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red No doubt -- blueshoes and Google have jumped the shark. When it gets this vicous, its over.
Scott Raynovich 12/5/2012 | 4:08:54 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Last night I went back and crunched some numbers. I will probably follow up with a column, but the upshot is that if you calculate an implied CAGR for Google at the current market cap, assuming shareholders seek a 20% annual return and industry-normalized P/E of 40 in 2010, Google needs to grow 100% annually for the next five years and have earnings of $5B by 2010 to justify its current valuation (or yesterday's valuation, I should say).
blueshoes 12/5/2012 | 4:08:49 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Scott

nobody doubts that Google will have a hard time living up to expectations and their capitalisation - about 18% above Cisco (?) - is for sure vulnerable to even the slightest modification in those of expectations.

On the other hand this is an amazing company - not so much in terms of its current management,which is obviously OK to have got this far, but probably will reach its limits sooner or later - but in its theoretical opportunity.

One would have to say that in its position as potential global manager of a very high degree of global information, a five year horizon may not be the right timescale on which to judge them, since their opportunity for significant growth probably covers several decades.

There will almost certainly be a temporary correction in the stock but whether that will take place in 3 or 6 or 12 or 18 months is obviously the question.

whyiswhy 12/5/2012 | 4:08:44 AM
re: Google: Hypometer in the Red Yea, umhh Scott:

Figured out how to scrub all those porn searches from Googles files? What's this with the neo-nazis seeking a court order?

-Why
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