x
Optical/IP

Eslambolchi's Top Ten

What do you get when one of Light Reading’s Top Ten Movers and Shakers presents at a Light Reading conference? Another Top Ten List, of course.

Hossein Eslambolchi, President of AT&T Global Networking Technology Services as well as CTO and CIO of AT&T Corp. (NYSE: T), unfurled his own Top Ten List in his keynote speech at yesterday’s joint Heavy Reading and Light Reading Insider conference, “The Telecom Recovery: Opportunities Amid the Chaos.”

Eslambolchi’s vision of the future is that “IP will eat everything,” and he foresees the advent of “SOIP -- Services over IP.” The Internet's growth is still exploding, and, as devices with IP addresses are added to the network, the network itself will continue its explosive growth, he says.

Eslambolchi had plenty of examples of the magnitude of the IP explosion, but perhaps none was as dramatic as this: As he sees it, “the rate of Internet expansion is about 1.5 times that of the universe." He sees 1 million terabytes of data extending across the Internet by 2005. Here’s Eslambolchi’s complete list of prognostications:

  • 10. Information mining will transform the way we do business In 10 years, the amount of information on global networks will double every 11 seconds. Tools that manage and mine this information will be crucial.

  • 9. Home LANs will proliferate

    Pure and simple, as the home gets wired, more and more devices will be connected to the IP network.

  • 8. Nex-gen distributed computing is growing

    The grid computing model is gathering steam, and networks are merging with classic computing. The big question here is, “How do we tap into that huge computing power?” Businesses will not be measured by how many people they’ll have working, but by how many MIPs and how much storage they have to automate their systems.

  • 7. Security is critical

    ”Making the network secure is a critical factor." Today’s networks need real-time virus scanning and intrusion detection tools.

  • 6. Death of locality

    ”In an IP network, locality does not matter." Ultimately, it’s the circuit-switched network that ties us down to certain locations, but IP allows us to roam the planet and have the network track our location.

  • 5. Convergence of communications and computers will become a reality

    This is about delivering on the promise of what used to be known as CTI (computer/telephony integration).

  • 4. Sensor networks will be everywhere

    The global IP network will be well equipped with sensors, which can monitor everything. Security will be a key element of this. Eslambolchi says that RFID technology could be a big part of this, whereby common everyday items will carry an IP address and an RFID tag. Sensor networks can be used to pick up this ID and do something meaningful with that info.

  • 3. The wireless Internet will be big -- driving mobility

    Wireless networks are exploding. 'Nuff said.

  • 2. Broadband will be common Eslambolchi defines broadband as 40 Mbit/s, contending that, as telecommunications technology is following the Moore’s Law path of expansion, 40-Mbit/s connections will be fairly common by the end of the decade.

  • 1. IP will eat everything!

    Finally, the AT&T CTO says that IP, quite simply, will rule the world, and he expects about “90 to 95 percent of entire global communications” to be IP-based by the end of the decade.

    Eslambolchi says the network will be consumed by the “IP Pac Man,” which will consume everything as common devices get IP addresses. The advent of IPv6 means that there are enough addresses to cover everything on Earth many times over, and that just “everything on this planet will have an IP address,” including household appliances and vehicles.

    Eslambolchi concluded that IP network developments have only just begun, comparing today’s state of communications to where “chemical engineering was in 1948." IP is becoming the single system of communication, along the lines of how DNA rules the genetic code, he says.

    — R. Scott Raynovich, US Editor, Light Reading

  • Page 1 / 2   >   >>
    lightbridge 12/5/2012 | 2:02:28 AM
    re: Eslambolchi's Top Ten >>10. Information mining will transform the way we do business
    In 10 years, the amount of information on globally networks will double every 11 seconds. Tolls that manage and mine this information will be crucial<<

    So, if by midnight, April 1st, 2014 there is one single byte of information available, at 12:15 am (900 seconds later) there will be 4 trillion terabytes, which are stored on a billion disks with 4000 Terabytes capacity, each.
    And at 7:00 am, when you wake up, there will be ... "OVERFLOW".

    Yup, sounds right...


    lb
    dljvjbsl 12/5/2012 | 2:02:27 AM
    re: Eslambolchi's Top Ten I wish that these propellor heads from AT&T would learn something about voice.

    We all know that the PCM network does everything that anyone could find useful and is the only way to achieve reliability. Add videoconferencing and you have the ultimate network
    Toad680 12/5/2012 | 2:02:27 AM
    re: Eslambolchi's Top Ten It was a good conference.

    He also talked about his strategy to provide access. He highlighted that AT&T would pursue 1) fiber to the neighborhood, 2) access over powerlines and 3) wifi (wimax).

    I've read a lot on wifi and fiber access, but have heard relatively little an access over powerlines. Some companies are claiming they can offer 45-200mb/second and cinergy is rolling out service in Ohio.

    Has Light Reading done any work on this technology? Is it viable and economical?

    Thanks
    technoboy 12/5/2012 | 2:02:25 AM
    re: Eslambolchi's Top Ten I wish that these propellor heads from AT&T would learn something about voice.

    We all know that the PCM network does everything that anyone could find useful and is the only way to achieve reliability. Add videoconferencing and you have the ultimate network

    Yes and with POTS you can use call forwarding which is the only feature that matters.
    PastTense 12/5/2012 | 2:02:24 AM
    re: Eslambolchi's Top Ten If you've ever heard this guy talk, he is very believeable. His knowledge and enthusiasm could convince me the sky was green. He may not be right about everything, but I bet he's right about most of his claims.
    aswath 12/5/2012 | 2:02:24 AM
    re: Eslambolchi's Top Ten Item 6: GÇ¥In an IP network, locality does not matter." Ultimately, itGÇÖs the circuit-switched network that ties us down to certain locations, but IP allows us to roam the planet and have the network track our location.

    I thought GSM provides global mobility and tracks our location. No?
    lollapalooka 12/5/2012 | 2:02:22 AM
    re: Eslambolchi's Top Ten Thought leaders such as the subject of this article aren't usually intimately familiar with the mechanics of making things happen.

    A mechanic may have suggestions for product improvement or process improvement, but not relevant suggestions on an improved architecture or a vision of where things will progress in the next three iterations. Too often the vocabulary includes "they ought to".

    A visionary rarely knows how to make it happen the way a mechanic does. Often they can take us along on our journey and we can find evidence that corroborates their trend-spotting over time.

    This industry needs both. And, let's face it, it takes courage to put your name on thoughts like this post-bubble.

    But put your faith where it makes the most sense. If you hear similar feedback from enough unrelated sources over time, it bears closer scrutiny.
    Lollapalooka
    sigint 12/5/2012 | 2:02:20 AM
    re: Eslambolchi's Top Ten A visionary rarely knows how to make it happen the way a mechanic does. Often they can take us along on our journey and we can find evidence that corroborates their trend-spotting over time.
    __________________________________________________

    I do not have any doubts that there would be dramatic increase in the level of information accessible and our reliance on the same.

    However, a couple of points:

    1. Security related issues were inclued in the top ten, they should have been included in the top 10 "spanners in the works" category, along with VCs, the FCC and obtuse engineering managers.

    2. Why will IP win? Why discount the possibility of something better emerging. Rather than fight legacy problems with IP, build something better from the ground up (in the medium and long term). If you do want to combat legacy issues, there's plenty of that floating around in the form of unbreakable TDM infrastructure.

    Engineering and technology it is, religion it ain't.
    probably 12/5/2012 | 2:02:14 AM
    re: Eslambolchi's Top Ten I don't think anyone would disagree that the world needs all sorts of people, but:

    "If you hear similar feedback from enough unrelated sources over time, it bears closer scrutiny."

    Emperor's new clothes...weapons of mass distruction...bubble stock valuations

    el_supremo 12/5/2012 | 2:02:14 AM
    re: Eslambolchi's Top Ten I don't think that Wi-Max will allow easy roaming. A more promising cellular technology is OFDM, which is being deployed by Nextel currently:

    http://www.nextelbroadband.com...

    I want to move to NC, just to get this service!
    Page 1 / 2   >   >>
    HOME
    Sign In
    SEARCH
    CLOSE
    MORE
    CLOSE