The GIG BE request for proposal (RFP) includes tenders for optical transport gear, optical crossconnects, MSPPs (multiservice provisioning platforms), and IP routers -- all aimed at rebuilding networks for the Department of Defense. The project's expected to draw $800 million to $900 million over two years (see DISA Deal D-Day Approaches).
Corvis says it's been invited by Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC), which is coordinating the RFP for the government, to participate in the live testing phase of optical transport gear (see Corvis Gets in GIG-BE Bake-Off). The "bake-off" is set to precede a test at AT&T Research Labs prior to the final selections this fall.
This is the second time Corvis has made public its RFP status (see Corvis Spikes on DISA Talk ), and it indicates the government may be leaving such matters to the discretion of the individual vendors. At press time, Corvis shares were trading at $1.56, up $0.14 (9.86%).
Where’s everyone else? SAIC wasn't talking at press time, and a DISA spokeswoman said the agency could not confirm any selections, but educated guesses abound. In a note to clients Wednesday, analyst Simon Leopold of Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. gives the following list of who the firm thinks the shortlisters may be in each equipment category.
- Optical transport and switching:
Ciena Corp. (Nasdaq: CIEN), Corvis, and Lucent Technologies Inc. (NYSE: LU) - Optical digital crossconnect:
Ciena, Lucent, and possibly Sycamore Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: SCMR) - Multiservice provisioning platform:
Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) and Lucent, with the third possibly Fujitsu Network Communications Inc. (FNC) or Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE/Toronto: NT) - IP router:
Cisco and Juniper Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: JNPR)
It's tough to tell whether these vendors are really out of the running. None of the suppliers listed above is willing to follow Corvis into the limelight by making its RFP status known. Apparently, most want to stay secretive to avoid a face full of egg if things don't work out.
But Corvis seems to think the risk is worth it, though we were unable to ask: Requests for more information on the vendor's press announcement went unanswered.
"I would not be surprised if Corvis got a piece of the contract," says Mark Lutkowitz of consultancy Telecom Pragmatics Inc. He says Corvis's dedication to optical transport may help it against competitors. "This is one time when a bleeding-edge approach may pay off," he notes.
— Mary Jander, Senior Editor, Light Reading
This story helps answer some of your original questions:
http://www.lightreading.com/bo...
and confirms the original assessment of who will be the fornt-runners for GIGBE:
http://www.lightreading.com/bo...
(and no, I am not Simon Leopold).
Now my prediction for the actual winners:
WDM: Lucent, with a token test-bed
network award to Corvis
Optical Switch: Ciena
MSPP: joint award to Lucent & Cisco
The big losers:
#1: Corvis, bacause this will confirm that there is now absolutely NO (NONE, NIET, NADA, AUCUN) customer that is interested in their story Nortel. David Huber will shoot himself in the head to avoid the public humiliation, but will survice and be even crazier than he is today. He will thus bid to buy the Pentagon, in order to merge it with Broadwing. An NSA hit squad will take him out for good, the everybody's relief, not least those of Corvis' employees, shareholders, and his former colleagues at Ciena. Only BoobyMax, Bob Gilder and Dave77777 will show up for the funeral, to be promptly arrested by John Ashcroft after services are over. But I digress.........
#2: Nortel, because their losses will continue to show that nobody is actually BUYING its HDX (as opposed to accepting to deploy it when it is given away as an incentive), and loss of the WDM portion will make apparent to all it's total loss of leadership in the long-haul DWDM space that it once ruled. Frank Dunn will lay off another 5000 employees "in order to rationalize our cost structure to the expected near-term market environment". He will then call in Greg Mumford into his office to ask him to explain once again what HDX actually does, and why it SHOULD be better than CoreDirector.