The U.S. Defense Information Systems Agency has turned another corner in its closely watched Global Information Grid Bandwidth Expansion (GIG BE) project [ed. note: we're watching it, it's watching you], and the lone bidder boasting of progress is Corvis Corp. (Nasdaq: CORV).
The GIG BE request for proposal (RFP) includes tenders for optical transport gear, optical crossconnects, MSPPs (multiservice provisioning platforms), and IP routers -- all aimed at rebuilding networks for the Department of Defense. The project's expected to draw $800 million to $900 million over two years (see DISA Deal D-Day Approaches).
This is the second time Corvis has made public its RFP status (see Corvis Spikes on DISA Talk ), and it indicates the government may be leaving such matters to the discretion of the individual vendors. At press time, Corvis shares were trading at $1.56, up $0.14 (9.86%).
Where’s everyone else? SAIC wasn't talking at press time, and a DISA spokeswoman said the agency could not confirm any selections, but educated guesses abound. In a note to clients Wednesday, analyst Simon Leopold of Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. gives the following list of who the firm thinks the shortlisters may be in each equipment category.
For the most part, Leopold's list matches handicapping by analysts Steven Levy and Tim Luke of Lehman Brothers early in July (see Lehman Spots Gov't RFP Surprises). Missing from Leopold's list, though, are a few vendors Levy and Luke favored, including Alcatel SA (NYSE: ALA; Paris: CGEP:PA), Innovance Networks, and Tellabs Inc. (Nasdaq: TLAB; Frankfurt: BTLA).
It's tough to tell whether these vendors are really out of the running. None of the suppliers listed above is willing to follow Corvis into the limelight by making its RFP status known. Apparently, most want to stay secretive to avoid a face full of egg if things don't work out.
But Corvis seems to think the risk is worth it, though we were unable to ask: Requests for more information on the vendor's press announcement went unanswered.
"I would not be surprised if Corvis got a piece of the contract," says Mark Lutkowitz of consultancy Telecom Pragmatics Inc. He says Corvis's dedication to optical transport may help it against competitors. "This is one time when a bleeding-edge approach may pay off," he notes.
WDM: Lucent, with a token test-bed network award to Corvis
Optical Switch: Ciena
MSPP: joint award to Lucent & Cisco
The big losers:
#1: Corvis, bacause this will confirm that there is now absolutely NO (NONE, NIET, NADA, AUCUN) customer that is interested in their story Nortel. David Huber will shoot himself in the head to avoid the public humiliation, but will survice and be even crazier than he is today. He will thus bid to buy the Pentagon, in order to merge it with Broadwing. An NSA hit squad will take him out for good, the everybody's relief, not least those of Corvis' employees, shareholders, and his former colleagues at Ciena. Only BoobyMax, Bob Gilder and Dave77777 will show up for the funeral, to be promptly arrested by John Ashcroft after services are over. But I digress.........
#2: Nortel, because their losses will continue to show that nobody is actually BUYING its HDX (as opposed to accepting to deploy it when it is given away as an incentive), and loss of the WDM portion will make apparent to all it's total loss of leadership in the long-haul DWDM space that it once ruled. Frank Dunn will lay off another 5000 employees "in order to rationalize our cost structure to the expected near-term market environment". He will then call in Greg Mumford into his office to ask him to explain once again what HDX actually does, and why it SHOULD be better than CoreDirector.
re: Corvis Solo in Bake-Off Boast I've never been involved with a DoD RFP before, but I know of a couple of circumstances where a customer (one an RBOC, one an IXC) got really really really really annoyed with a vendor who did a lot of talking on their status of their relationship and progress on an RFP and new product rollout. These deals ended up with the primary vendor talking themselves right out the door, and another company being given the deal.
Bottom line: I understand that Corvis needs every bit of positive press and hope that they can generate real income, and that GIG-BE may be their last chance. But they should officially shut the hell up until SAIC, the DoD, or someone from the purchasing side makes a statement about who is in the running and who isn't.
re: Corvis Solo in Bake-Off Boast Zetta, I hope your post isn't indicative of the level of realism among LU employees in general, because if it is you guys need Paxil by the truckload. Where's your OOO switch again? How much debt are you guys carrying now? Better worry about your own funeral before gloating over Corvis'.
Gina Sockolov and two others predicted a win for Corvis.
re: Corvis Solo in Bake-Off Boast grapsfan wrote: "I've never been involved with a DoD RFP before, but I know of a couple of circumstances where a customer (one an RBOC, one an IXC) got really really really really annoyed with a vendor who did a lot of talking on their status of their relationship and progress on an RFP and new product rollout. These deals ended up with the primary vendor talking themselves right out the door, and another company being given the deal"
This RFP is unlike typical commercial deals. When vendors were notified of their selection for the bake-offs, they were told that they were free to announce their participation. SAIC would not be making announcements. So the next question should be, "What will it take for other vendors to announce selection?" Clearly Corvis has its reasons.
After so many sound postings, you've gone postal. The funniest part of it (sorry) is that I wasn't sure if LR had inadvertantly put your handle on one of BobbyMax's postings just for the hell of it.
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