x
Optical/IP

Bubble Won't Reinflate, Poll Says

Do you believe that the economy is ready to come roaring back to form a new Internet bubble? If so, then according to Light Reading’s latest Research Poll, you’re among an optimistic minority.

In the latest poll, which asked respondents to forecast what our industry will look like by the end of the decade, 63 percent of the 56 respondents said they did not believe the financial bubble of 1999-2001 would be repeated by 2010.

Beyond the bubble, it’ll be rough sailing for all of the major players in the industry, according to the survey. Most of the respondents believe that only half of today’s big telecom operators, equipment vendors, and cable operators will still exist by the end of the decade.

Exactly 0 percent of the people who took this month’s survey think all of today’s large equipment vendors will still be around in 2010, while 41 percent believe half will remain, and 8 percent think hardly any of them will still be in the game in the next decade.

The numbers are somewhat less dreary for telecom and cable operators. Thirty-five percent of respondents think only about half of the players in this group will last, and two and four percent (respectively) think all of them will be here to welcome in the next decade.

The poll also suggests that as big players bow out, new giants will take their place. Fifty-nine percent of respondents say another Cisco will emerge in the equipment industry and 42 percent say a new Intel will surface in the components industry. A daunting 75 percent of poll-takers, however, do not expect Microsoft to run into any new, large competitors by 2010.

Not only are the major players in the industry expected to change, but much of the world’s communication will also take new routes, according to the survey. More than half of the respondents say mobile devices will account for about half of the world’s communication by the end of the decade, while a third say half of all communication will run over IP networks. Twenty-five percent believe nearly all communication will run over IP networks.

A resounding 67 percent of poll respondents expect most fixed access lines to be fiber, while only 6 percent say most traffic will run over cable networks in 2010.

Most people polled believe three quarters of all traffic will be data at the turn of the decade, while the remaining quarter will be video.

Want more details? Take Light Reading’s Research Poll yourself by clicking here.

— Eugénie Larson, Reporter, Light Reading
http://www.lightreading.com
listen2this 12/4/2012 | 10:26:00 PM
re: Bubble Won't Reinflate, Poll Says telco will be back, but to say back to the 2000-2001
is a bit of a pipe dream.
I_am_illuminated 12/4/2012 | 10:25:57 PM
re: Bubble Won't Reinflate, Poll Says Polls dont predict anything.......
They are based on what people see today. Things can change.......a lot by 2010.

YOu guys are talking way ahead in the future. It takes about 2-4 years to start and achieve some considerable tech. gains on a new technology. So things will not sound the same. May be 2010 is worse than what the polls say or even better than today ...
BlueWater66 12/4/2012 | 10:25:42 PM
re: Bubble Won't Reinflate, Poll Says In a number of discussion over the last couple of weeks, I have heard a number of companies state that April provided one of their best Book-to-Bill ratios in a very long while. Obviously the absolute value of the "Bill" number is really bad. But I'm hoping this provides some level of hope. I'm tired of hearing about "backward looking" economic indicators (including quarterly earnings). I've started trying to focus on "forward looking" economic indicators inside my company. Let's face it, who wants to stare back at the "gutter" that we're all trying to climb out of.

QUESTION: Is there a telecom component or system Book-to-bill ratio analyst report? I've seen it in commodities like DRAM, but I've love to find an industry sector version of this???? It would be interesting to track it for April-May ....
corvo 12/4/2012 | 10:25:24 PM
re: Bubble Won't Reinflate, Poll Says this is the crux of the problem. instead of numbers and analysis people - investors in particular - are fascinated with words like "bubble", "mania", etc. the bubble of 2000 is as much a part of the stock market as the "black hole" (my contribution to the collective fascination) we are living in today is. although it sounds like heresy today, there were reasons which made the skyhigh telco stock prices during 2000 seem less unreasonable. not all of those reasons were baseless. if those reasons come back we might get another surge in stock prices within a not so distant future. todays black hole has been brought about by a combination of factors: overcapacity in the telecom sector just as the economy was starting to cool down being one of them.

meanwhile, the only thing less reliable than a stock market bubble is a research poll to determine the future of the telecom sector.
BobbyMax 12/4/2012 | 10:25:08 PM
re: Bubble Won't Reinflate, Poll Says The technology bubble as it existed during the years has burst. This was caused by stock price manipulation by Wall Street Analysts, Stock Option
Abuses,hype by VCs, corruption perpetuated by Investment Bankers, and too much focus on start-ups, and acquisition craze, etc. For example, Lucent and Nortel acquired too manyuseless start-ups that proved to be worthless.

There were too many bogus start-ups, primarily in the Valley Area in California. Any company that acquired these companies or bought stocks in these companies fell flat. At least 30-40 companies located in California were going public without any substantial products or technologies.

Many CEOs are still robbing companiesby taking excessive salaries, bonuses and stock options. Their greed and propensity to engage in corrupt actions has selom been experienced by the American people. All this has lead to the collapse of the system.

Millions of people have lost everything by investing their lifetime savings in stocks.



photon_mon 12/4/2012 | 10:25:06 PM
re: Bubble Won't Reinflate, Poll Says Amen to that, BM! Also, let's not forget all
of those personal CEO loans (typically in the
million$, of course) that were forgiven. Why
does this seem to be so common* in recent days
(* just pick up a copy of Fortune or Forbes if
you want examples)? Sure wish my banker was that
generous. It's disgusting beyond reason.

photon_mon

______________________________________________

The technology bubble as it existed during the years has burst. This was caused by stock price manipulation by Wall Street Analysts, Stock Option
Abuses,hype by VCs, corruption perpetuated by Investment Bankers, and too much focus on start-ups, and acquisition craze, etc. For example, Lucent and Nortel acquired too manyuseless start-ups that proved to be worthless.

There were too many bogus start-ups, primarily in the Valley Area in California. Any company that acquired these companies or bought stocks in these companies fell flat. At least 30-40 companies located in California were going public without any substantial products or technologies.

Many CEOs are still robbing companiesby taking excessive salaries, bonuses and stock options. Their greed and propensity to engage in corrupt actions has selom been experienced by the American people. All this has lead to the collapse of the system.

Millions of people have lost everything by investing their lifetime savings in stocks.
greybeard 12/4/2012 | 10:24:46 PM
re: Bubble Won't Reinflate, Poll Says > ...Lucent and Nortel acquired too many useless
> start-ups that proved to be worthless...

Actually, they acquired too many useless start-ups that were known at the time to be worthless. It wasn't just Lucent and Nortel. Don't forget, for example, the Tellabs purchase of Netcore, or the Siemens purchase of Argon. If the purchasers had sent people who understood routers to do the evaluation, some of the purchases wouldn't have happened.

> Many CEOs are still robbing companies by taking
> excessive salaries, bonuses and stock options.

I sort of admire the ability of the CEOs of Lucent, Nortel, and others to get away with taking so much money, at the same time that I wonder why the board of directors and the shareholders are willing to let them get away with it. Do we really think that the last CEO of Lucent got paid so much because he knew precisely how to turn Lucent around and make it become a thriving strong company? If the CEOs could fix Lucent or Nortel or ..., then he/she would be worth the large pay packages.

To some extent the current "black hole" that the telecommunications industry is in might be useful, in that it helps to clear out some of the non-productive companies.
HOME
Sign In
SEARCH
CLOSE
MORE
CLOSE