Optical/IP Networks

Bubble Won't Reinflate, Poll Says

Do you believe that the economy is ready to come roaring back to form a new Internet bubble? If so, then according to Light Reading’s latest Research Poll, you’re among an optimistic minority.

In the latest poll, which asked respondents to forecast what our industry will look like by the end of the decade, 63 percent of the 56 respondents said they did not believe the financial bubble of 1999-2001 would be repeated by 2010.

Beyond the bubble, it’ll be rough sailing for all of the major players in the industry, according to the survey. Most of the respondents believe that only half of today’s big telecom operators, equipment vendors, and cable operators will still exist by the end of the decade.

Exactly 0 percent of the people who took this month’s survey think all of today’s large equipment vendors will still be around in 2010, while 41 percent believe half will remain, and 8 percent think hardly any of them will still be in the game in the next decade.

The numbers are somewhat less dreary for telecom and cable operators. Thirty-five percent of respondents think only about half of the players in this group will last, and two and four percent (respectively) think all of them will be here to welcome in the next decade.

The poll also suggests that as big players bow out, new giants will take their place. Fifty-nine percent of respondents say another Cisco will emerge in the equipment industry and 42 percent say a new Intel will surface in the components industry. A daunting 75 percent of poll-takers, however, do not expect Microsoft to run into any new, large competitors by 2010.

Not only are the major players in the industry expected to change, but much of the world’s communication will also take new routes, according to the survey. More than half of the respondents say mobile devices will account for about half of the world’s communication by the end of the decade, while a third say half of all communication will run over IP networks. Twenty-five percent believe nearly all communication will run over IP networks.

A resounding 67 percent of poll respondents expect most fixed access lines to be fiber, while only 6 percent say most traffic will run over cable networks in 2010.

Most people polled believe three quarters of all traffic will be data at the turn of the decade, while the remaining quarter will be video.

Want more details? Take Light Reading’s Research Poll yourself by clicking here.

— Eugénie Larson, Reporter, Light Reading

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