IP Video Uptake by 2004?
At press time, 162 respondents had taken our November 2002 Research Poll (to add your opinion, click here). Of that number, 30 percent think video-over-IP, still a nascent industry, will take off in full force by 2004, mainly thanks to services that enable users to buy videos without leaving home -- including a sizeable ration of the kind labeled "adult."
Because of what is certain one day to be a thriving business, 17 percent of those polled think the porn industry will take a leading role in bringing video-over-IP to market. But the majority, a combined 61 percent of respondents, think telecom or cable operators will lead the charge. This is in line with thinking from at least one analyst, Ryan Jones of the Yankee Group, who sees cable operators leading in offering packetized video (see We Want Our Packet TV!).
In the long run, the power of video-over-IP will lie in its ability to make a TV broadcaster out of "virtually anyone," according to 51 percent of those polled. Over half, though, don't think new services are likely to destroy today's TV broadcasting industry.
But before packet video services spread, bandwidth bottlenecks, seen as the chief showstoppers, need busting. That leap forward, according to 71 percent of respondents, will come from widespread deployment of Ethernet. This whopping majority sees Ethernet as the likeliest Layer 2 protocol to carry video services to buildings by 2005.
These respondents aren't alone in thinking of Ethernet as a great unifying enabler for video services. According to a recent Light Reading Webinar and survey, carriers also see Ethernet as key to future growth.
Interestingly, fiber isn't seen as the main medium for carrying this new traffic. While 42 percent of respondents say fiber will be the main conduit, 31 percent think copper local loops will reign, and 20 percent believe coaxial cable will carry the bulk of packetized video.
To view the latest results, click here. — Mary Jander, Senior Editor, Light Reading