And right now, they're all going downward.
Worldwide Docsis device shipments sank to 7 million units in the first quarter of 2009, down from 7.8 million the previous quarter and 8.1 million units in the first quarter a year ago, according to the latest figures from Heavy Reading's "Cable Next-Generation Technology Quarterly Market Tracker." Stand-alone Docsis cable modems fell to 3.4 million units in the first quarter, well off the 4.4 million shipped a year ago. EMTAs (voice modems) were down just slightly, as vendors shipped out an estimated 3.4 million units in the first quarter, versus 3.5 million in the first quarter of 2008 -- but strong gains by Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) boosted those numbers. The Docsis CPE story is unlikely to improve in the second quarter, considering Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) and Cablevision Systems Corp. (NYSE: CVC) have already posted results showing that growth rates in voice and Internet services are still slowing. That trend isn't expected to be much different at Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA, CMCSK) when the world's largest cable MSO posts its second-quarter numbers on Thursday morning (Aug. 6). (See Cablevision Still Not Sweating FiOS and TWC Pinpoints Two WiMax Markets.) Second half surge?
However, Heavy Reading senior analyst Alan Breznick, author of the report, says the Docsis CPE category could rebound in the second half of the year as more MSOs turn up Docsis 3.0 services, requiring new modems, EMTAs, and more sophisticated wireless home gateways -- and as the economy (hopefully) improves. Those sentiments appear to be shared by at least two major Docsis vendors: Arris Group Inc. (Nasdaq: ARRS) and Broadcom Corp. (Nasdaq: BRCM). (See Arris Pumps Up the Docsis 3.0 Volume and Broadcom Anticipates Docsis 3.0 Push.) If all of those stars align, the amount of Docsis CPE units shipped in 2009 could outstrip what went out the door last year. Breznick thinks wideband deployments will help total Docsis CPE shipments hit 34 million this year, up from 33.3 million in 2008. He's predicting 38 million units shipped in 2010. Moto still in the driver's seat
Motorola maintained a healthy lead on other Docsis vendors, commanding 38.4 percent of the total Docsis CPE market in the first quarter. Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO), meanwhile, inched ahead of Arris to take the No. 2 position. Table 1: Vendor Docsis Device Shipments: 1Q09
|Vendor||Total Docsis Devices - 1Q09||Market Share|
|Source: Heavy Reading|
*Heavy Reading estimate
Motorola shipped out the most Docsis cable modems (1.73 million) in the first quarter of 2009, followed by Cisco (552,904), and Ubee Interactive (480,000), according to Heavy Reading estimates. Arris continued to rule the EMTA category, shipping 1.26 million units in the first quarter, for a market share of 37.5 percent. Motorola followed with 953,000, good for a 28.3 percent share. Cisco was third, with 666,105 units shipped and a 19.8 percent share. Some second-quarter figures are already in. Motorola shipped 2.67 million Docsis devices in the second quarter, just shy of its first-quarter totals, while Arris shipped 1.26 million Docsis CPEs, also down compared to the previous period. — Jeff Baumgartner, Site Editor, Cable Digital News