Docsis Devices Drive Downward

As growth rates for cable voice and Internet services go, so go the shipments of Docsis-fueled cable modems and embedded multimedia terminal adapter (EMTAs).

And right now, they're all going downward.

Worldwide Docsis device shipments sank to 7 million units in the first quarter of 2009, down from 7.8 million the previous quarter and 8.1 million units in the first quarter a year ago, according to the latest figures from Heavy Reading's "Cable Next-Generation Technology Quarterly Market Tracker." Stand-alone Docsis cable modems fell to 3.4 million units in the first quarter, well off the 4.4 million shipped a year ago. EMTAs (voice modems) were down just slightly, as vendors shipped out an estimated 3.4 million units in the first quarter, versus 3.5 million in the first quarter of 2008 -- but strong gains by Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) boosted those numbers. The Docsis CPE story is unlikely to improve in the second quarter, considering Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) and Cablevision Systems Corp. (NYSE: CVC) have already posted results showing that growth rates in voice and Internet services are still slowing. That trend isn't expected to be much different at Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA, CMCSK) when the world's largest cable MSO posts its second-quarter numbers on Thursday morning (Aug. 6). (See Cablevision Still Not Sweating FiOS and TWC Pinpoints Two WiMax Markets.) Second half surge?
However, Heavy Reading senior analyst Alan Breznick, author of the report, says the Docsis CPE category could rebound in the second half of the year as more MSOs turn up Docsis 3.0 services, requiring new modems, EMTAs, and more sophisticated wireless home gateways -- and as the economy (hopefully) improves. Those sentiments appear to be shared by at least two major Docsis vendors: Arris Group Inc. (Nasdaq: ARRS) and Broadcom Corp. (Nasdaq: BRCM). (See Arris Pumps Up the Docsis 3.0 Volume and Broadcom Anticipates Docsis 3.0 Push.) If all of those stars align, the amount of Docsis CPE units shipped in 2009 could outstrip what went out the door last year. Breznick thinks wideband deployments will help total Docsis CPE shipments hit 34 million this year, up from 33.3 million in 2008. He's predicting 38 million units shipped in 2010. Moto still in the driver's seat
Motorola maintained a healthy lead on other Docsis vendors, commanding 38.4 percent of the total Docsis CPE market in the first quarter. Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO), meanwhile, inched ahead of Arris to take the No. 2 position. Table 1: Vendor Docsis Device Shipments: 1Q09
Vendor Total Docsis Devices - 1Q09 Market Share
Motorola 2,688,000 38.4%
Cisco 1,325,479 18.9%
Arris 1,319,034 18.8%
Ubee Interactive 580,000* 8.3%
Thomson 437,406 6.2%
Other 650,000 9.3%
Total 6,999,919 100%
Source: Heavy Reading
*Heavy Reading estimate

Motorola shipped out the most Docsis cable modems (1.73 million) in the first quarter of 2009, followed by Cisco (552,904), and Ubee Interactive (480,000), according to Heavy Reading estimates. Arris continued to rule the EMTA category, shipping 1.26 million units in the first quarter, for a market share of 37.5 percent. Motorola followed with 953,000, good for a 28.3 percent share. Cisco was third, with 666,105 units shipped and a 19.8 percent share. Some second-quarter figures are already in. Motorola shipped 2.67 million Docsis devices in the second quarter, just shy of its first-quarter totals, while Arris shipped 1.26 million Docsis CPEs, also down compared to the previous period. — Jeff Baumgartner, Site Editor, Cable Digital News

hans42 12/5/2012 | 3:59:24 PM
re: Docsis Devices Drive Downward

Glad to see that finally Cablevision is reaping what they're sowing when it comes to shoddy service and shoddy maintenance on behalf of their customers.  I reallize growth is down across the industry, but cablevision, for reasons unbeknownst to me, has been able to escape somehwat..until now.  Positive development for my Tuesday morning.

DavidH17 12/5/2012 | 3:59:23 PM
re: Docsis Devices Drive Downward

How does Arris continue to be so dominant in the EMTA space. I looked on their website and read that they have been the #1 market share leader for the last four years and have twice the market share as the next competitor. How have they been able to sustain this? better technology? being partnered with the right service providers? and will they be able to maintain this market share going forward?

Jeff Baumgartner 12/5/2012 | 3:59:12 PM
re: Docsis Devices Drive Downward

Maybe an MSO can chime in on this one, too, but Arris historically has had success with cable telephony from the get-go, even back to the earlier circuit switched rollouts, so it's been able to bring that same kind of sturdy product to the voip/emta world.  Also, it was the sole emta supplier to Comcast for a time (Thomson's getting some of that biz too). But maintaining that lead will be tough. As Alan indicated in the report, Mot's making some progress.




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