Major US cable operators will start to share their Q4 2024 results in a couple of weeks. The expectation is that they'll post more broadband subscriber losses, contributing to what will likely be a worst-ever full year in this critical category.
But it's also quite possible that the worst is behind the cable guys.
Notably, US cable ops are now past the negative subscriber impacts from the demise of the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), and the rate of subscriber growth from key competitors – namely, fiber and fixed wireless access (FWA) – continues to slow. Satellite broadband companies such as Starlink are making progress in rural areas, but they appear to be stealing share from existing geosynchronous (GEO) satellite broadband players such as Hughes (EchoStar) and Viasat.
Taken together, this relative shift to more normalized market conditions does not mean that US cable will suddenly return to broadband subscriber growth in 2025. But the rate of losses will decrease, and cable operators could start to see some modest broadband subscriber growth in 2026.
"We don't expect net subscriber growth for the cable operators in our coverage in 2025, but we expect dramatically smaller losses," MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett noted in his updated broadband subscriber forecast (registration required). "For Charter, with what is still the most ambitious rural deployment campaign, we expect a return to (very small) positive growth in 2026."
Related:Cable could return to broadband sub growth in 2026 – forecast
MoffettNathanson's latest forecast sees US cable losing 321,000 broadband subs in 2025, improved from a loss of 1.08 million in 2024. It expects a gain of 131,000 in 2026.

Among individual operators, Moffett expects Comcast to shed 210,000 broadband subs in 2025 and another 82,000 in 2026. Charter is expected to lose just 22,000 broadband subs in 2025 and then, aided in part by its ongoing rural buildouts, add 233,000 in 2026. Altice USA and Cable One are also anticipated to see improved broadband subscriber trends in the coming years.
Of note, Moffett's forecast does not factor in any impact of the fires ravaging Southern California, though he does expect Charter and Frontier Communications to assess the situation "after the emergency has passed."
A glance at cable's competition
Turning to cable's broadband competition, FWA growth has been waning despite AT&T's move into the market, largely as a DSL catch product as it remains more fixated on fiber. "It appears increasingly likely that 2023 will have marked the peak for FWA net additions, and therefore for its competitive impact, as well," Moffett explained.
Related:Comcast would've returned to broadband sub growth without ACP impact
Moffett also points out that fiber subscriber growth is decelerating as well. Fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) operators added 487,000 subs in Q1, a 10.1% increase that dipped to its lowest level since 2016, according to MoffettNathanson's analysis. Moffett points to a "crowding problem" that is seeing multiple fiber overbuilders concentrating on the same areas.
Satellite broadband is a wildcard of sorts. Starlink is growing (1.3 million US subs at the end of 2023 and more than 4 million globally toward the end of 2024), but it is largely stealing share from GEO satellite operators rather than from wireline broadband providers and still remains a rural-focused option, at least in the US. Looking ahead, expectations are increasing that Starlink will be positioned to play a stronger role in the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program as the new Trump administration takes over.
"With much higher speeds and much lower latency than its GEO competition, LEO [low-Earth orbit] service (which is really just Starlink at this point, as Amazon's Project Kuiper hasn't even started launching operational satellites yet) is simply better than the likes of GEO services like HughesNet," Moffett noted.
But will Starlink focus on less rural areas as it beefs up capacity with laser interlinks and its new Gen2 satellites? Moffett believes that Starlink's relatively high prices and low speeds (when compared to wireline broadband) will make rural its "highest and best use."