What telco CEOs are saying about Q4What telco CEOs are saying about Q4

With just a few weeks left in 2024, investors have begun trying to parse exactly what's going on in the US telecom industry. For some, that has led to confusion.

"My comments explaining normal seasonal trends in Q4 were misinterpreted by one media outlet as a warning, so I want to make sure there is no investor confusion," T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert said in a press release Monday. "To be clear, our Q4 is trending at least in line with prior expectations, maybe better."

Sievert's comments came hours after his appearance at a UBS investor event, where he said that "investors should be cautious because there's a lot of risk in the back half [of Q4]. Most of this quarter is still in front of us, if you will, because the shaping of Q4 is a little different than most quarters. But we feel great about it."

That comment sparked a worrying Bloomberg article and a noteworthy dip in T-Mobile's stock price Monday.

The situation wasn't helped by Comcast Cable CEO Dave Watson who said Monday at the UBS conference that the operator expects to lose another 100,000 broadband customers in the fourth quarter of 2024. Comcast shares slid nearly 9% in response.

For T-Mobile, Sievert's comments in Monday's press release sought to contain the damage: "We continue to expect to deliver about 3 million postpaid phone net additions for the year, or more. Q3 was a fantastic growth quarter for T-Mobile and our growth momentum continues in Q4," he said.

At the time of writing, however, T-Mobile's shares remained around 3% lower compared with last week.

The context

It's no surprise that there's so much attention on T-Mobile and the rest of the US telecom sector. The fourth quarter is often the high point of the year in terms of sales to consumers as holiday shoppers look for the best deals.

Indeed, some operators are pulling out all the stops in their pursuit of new customers. For example, Verizon is offering much bigger holiday promotions this year than in previous years, a possible indication that the operator is investing more heavily in gaining new customers.

That's probably because Verizon officials have promised that the company will end 2024 with an overall increase in postpaid phone customers – after years of losses.

In his own appearance this week at the UBS investor event, Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg said, however, that everything is fine. "Competition is the same," he said in response to a question about the company's holiday promotions.

"Now, still, we have some holiday season left here, but so far, so good, I would say. We're very pleased with how the team is performing," Vestberg said.

AT&T's outlook

As for AT&T, CEO John Stankey didn't discuss the operator's fourth quarter progress in his UBS appearance, but he reiterated AT&T's overall long-term outlook following the operator's recent analyst day presentation.

For its part, AT&T continues to enjoy investor attention; the company's stock is up almost 40% this year.

"We view AT&T's analyst day positively," wrote the financial analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets earlier this month. "AT&T's strategic position on a converged offering, stronger than expected adjusted EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] growth guidance, and capital return program all appear solid and position AT&T favorably."

Verizon's stock, meanwhile, has risen around 12% this year, while T-Mobile's has increased more than 45% over that period. Comcast's shares are down 10% this year.