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Strategy Analytics predicts mixed fortunes for Gallium Arsenide, with GaAs MMICs recovering but GaAs digital ICs losing out to silicon
January 8, 2003
LONDON -- The new "GaAs Industry Forecast: 2001-2006," from the Strategy Analytics Gallium Arsenide & High Speed Circuits (GaAs) Service, presents a five year analysis and forecast for the vertical GaAs market supply chain, from bulk substrates through to epitaxial substrates to MMIC, discrete and digital ICs. Strategy Analytics forecasts mixed fortunes within the GaAs industry. While the GaAs MMIC market has started to recover, new higher speed digital silicon has taken over digital GaAs IC design sockets in telecommunication and data communications. For the materials markets, the continued shift towards HBT and HEMT devices will allow the epitaxial substrates market to demonstrate high growth rates compared to the bulk substrates market. Strategy Analytics predicts that the cellular market will continue to dominate the wireless application space and GaAs MMIC's. Increased GaAs penetration for the power amplifier (PA) function in cellular handsets will drive this growth. By 2007, Strategy Analytics expects PA's to account for nearly 100 percent of the revenue from GaAs in handsets. Furthermore, Strategy Analytics expects GaAs MMIC demand from automotive RADAR to increase rapidly, as long-range 77GHz autonomous cruise control (ACC) targets mainstream mass-production vehicles. Shorter-range 17/24GHz systems have also started to reach the commercial markets as "backing aids" on vehicles in North America. While predicting growth overall, Strategy Analytics cautions the GaAs industry against making the same mistakes that were made during the supposed boom of 2000. "The 2001 collapse highlighted the sensitivity of the GaAs industry to global cycles traditionally associated with the silicon semiconductor industry," notes Asif Anwar, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics. "As seen in 2001, a comparable global downturn in the future will seriously affect GaAs IC demand and subsequent demand for bulk and epitaxial wafers." Strategy Analytics Inc.
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