These days, some are hoping a miraculous alignment of stars could spark a carrier recovery some time in late 2003. It won’t. This is not a prediction; it is a fact of life driven by large carrier budget cycles.

Spending in the bubble was driven by the CLECs and next-generation, venture-backed, long-distance providers. They often adjusted their budgets several times a year in response to new opportunities (both real and imagined). Not so with the traditional service providers that now represent the lion’s share of the spending. They typically have rigid budget cycles wherein each year's spending is set the previous fall. The only place to move is down. This means that the 2003 spending budgets are being set, and in most cases already have been set, based on the current dismal economic environment...

To read the rest of the column, please go to: Service Provider Circle. — Doug Green is founder and principal of the Bradam Group LLC, a telecom consultancy in northern Virginia. He can be reached at: [email protected].