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Apathy Attack to Blight 3G

A London-based business intelligence outfit is countering claims made for 3G subscriber uptake and revenues, saying its research undercuts growth projections issued by industry bodies by as much as one third.

World Markets Research Centre (WMRC), a consultancy that provides "business intelligence" to large corporates and multinationals, believes the mobile industry is still too bullish about the prospects for 3G in Western Europe and Japan.

The main causes of these shortfalls are the old chestnuts: technological issues; high handset prices; and "an apparent lack of enthusiasm from consumers regarding the new infotainment service and internet access offered by 3G." So apathy will rule, then.

The consultancy believes claims made in August 2001 by the UMTS Forum and Telecompetition -- that annual revenues generated by 3G subscribers from "traditional voice services, SMS and multimedia messaging, infotainment and internet access" by the end of 2007 will reach US$42.3 billion -- are 15 percent too high.

WMRC's analysis leads it to believe there will be 84.1 million 3G subscribers in the current 15 EU member states generating $36.3 billion annually by the end of 2007.

In addition, "only 27% of all mobile subscribers will have a 3G phone by 2007, a third less than current published figures of around 40%," states WMRC's analysis.

Now, someone somewhere has some market analysis that must make WRMC's figures seem ridiculously optimistic. If you've got 'em, we wanna see 'em!

That's infotainment!

— Ray Le Maistre, European editor Unstrung
http://www.unstrung.com
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