Mobile subs and data growth are both slowing

Mobile data traffic growth is indeed slowing – but it's not the only factor that's holding back the advance of the global mobile sector.

The new Ericsson mobility report confirms the trend. The latest study reveals that global mobile traffic grew just 21% year-on-year in the third quarter – down from 25% last year and well below the 40% level of three years ago and 95% mark of six years ago.

Ericsson forecasts a continued steady decline to 16% in 2030. But its numbers include fixed wireless access (FWA), which involves quite different end-user behavior. 

While the study doesn't forecast mobile-only traffic, it does predict data consumption per mobile user. It estimates global per user data consumption will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% over the next six years, ranging from 21% in sub-Saharan Africa to 11% in northeast Asia and the Gulf states.

The Ericsson forecast includes an anticipated traffic bump from the take-up of VR and AR services – but that is not an assumption shared by everyone. And while it expects generative artificial intelligence will drive the device market, it acknowledges it is too early to estimate the impact of it on mobile data consumption.

Deceleration

The other element in slowing mobile growth is the deceleration in subscriber take-up in developing countries.

Ericsson predicts an extra 1.3 billion mobile broadband subscriptions between 2024 and 2030. But the GSMA's latest "state of mobile Internet connectivity" report says adoption has slowed markedly in the last two years.

Around 160 million people joined the mobile Internet in both 2022 and 2023. That's a sizable drop from 2015–2021, when more than 200 million people became connected each year, the GSMA said. The biggest single reason is affordability of both devices and services, although literacy and digital skills are also an issue, especially in rural areas of developing countries.

Coverage is also a factor. Of the 3.45 billion who don't have mobile Internet, 90% have local access to a mobile broadband network. But that still leaves some 350 million people without coverage. But all of those are perennial issues. No one seems to know why take-up has fallen off so dramatically.

In particular, there's been a notable slump in a number of countries with low mobile adoption. Again, it is not clear why, although it may well be due to country-specific issues.

The lesson here seems to be that the old certainties of mobile are fading fast. The need to find new growth paths has never been more pressing.