How Trump's immigration policy could affect wireless industry growthHow Trump's immigration policy could affect wireless industry growth

President Trump is expected to reduce immigration into the US, and engage in forced immigrant deportations. Aside from the moral implications, that would also have economic ramifications.

Mike Dano, Editorial Director, 5G & Mobile Strategies

January 23, 2025

4 Min Read
The White House
(Source: incamerastock/Alamy Stock Photo)

The US wireless industry might count around 1 million fewer new customers next year, depending on how President Trump limits immigration in the US, according to some financial forecasts.

"Changes in immigration policy could have a profound impact on subscriber growth," summarized the financial analysts at New Street Research in a recent note to investors.

Others agree.

"The reduction in net immigrants could result in a potential ~1.1 million / 1.2 million hit to total industry postpaid phone net adds in 2025/2026," wrote the financial analysts at Evercore in a recent note to investors.

Implications and ramifications

The topic could come up Friday during Verizon's fourth quarter earnings conference call, though it's unlikely that Verizon executives will have much to say. After all, Trump hasn't yet outlined exactly what he will do when it comes to immigration in general and forced deportations specifically.

And here's where it must be said: The topic of immigration in the US is fraught with complex personal, moral and political implications. The economic implications are decidedly secondary. But those economic implications will undoubtedly become important to companies like Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T, which all have significant business in selling wireless services to US immigrants.

After all, according to the analysts at Evercore, immigration into the US contributed around 720,000 additional postpaid phone net customer additions to the collective US wireless industry in 2023 and in 2024 (they estimate 45% of immigrants subscribe to a postpaid plan, while the remainder subscribe to prepaid plans).

The numbers

Customer growth in the US has been gradually slowing for several years. 2021 was a record year for the US wireless industry as operators collectively acquired almost 10 million new postpaid customers – roughly double historical figures. Since then analysts have been warning of a massive slowdown in wireless customer growth.

But the reality has been much more gradual.

For 2024, the financial analysts at TD Cowen expect a total of 7.8 million postpaid phone net customer additions. "The carriers all expect an eventual step down in industry net adds, but to what levels still remains to be seen as we contemplate many variables," they wrote in a recent note to investors. "There is a possibility that the hard landing could come this year."

Postpaid customers – those who pay for services after they use them – are widely considered more valuable than prepaid customers, who pay for services before they use them.

Q4 predictions

As the big 5G players prepare to report their fourth quarter results over the next few days, the TD Cowen analysts expect the industry collectively to report a total of 2.65 million postpaid phone net customer additions in the fourth quarter of 2024, down 5% year-over-year. The analysts expect T-Mobile to retain its leadership position with 851,000 net customer additions during the fourth quarter of 2024.

The analysts predict Charter Communications to come in second with 515,000 postpaid phone net customer additions in the fourth quarter, followed by Verizon with 501,000, AT&T with 439,000, and Comcast with 305,000.

The ongoing customer growth in the overall US wireless industry has been attributed to a number of factors, including sales of second lines for business calls, as well as younger and younger children getting phones.

But immigration is also a factor.

The Trump effect

According to the financial analysts at New Street, immigration has grown significantly over the past four years. The firm counted 3.5 million additional people in the US in 2024. Around half a million of those are due to a "natural increase" in population (more people being born than dying). But the remaining 3 million are due to immigration.

If Trump engages in an aggressive reduction in immigration and also in deportations, the New Street analysts estimate the US wireless industry would lose 1.1 million net new customer additions in 2026 due to lower immigration, and 850,000 due to deportations.

The Evercore analysts offer a similar calculation. They wrote that, if Trump reduces immigration, the US wireless industry collectively would see 950,000 fewer postpaid phone net customer additions in both 2025 and 2026.

And if Trump both reduces immigration and engages in deportations, the industry would see up to 1.2 million fewer postpaid phone net customer additions in 2025 and 2026.

About the Author

Mike Dano

Editorial Director, 5G & Mobile Strategies, Light Reading

Mike Dano is Light Reading's Editorial Director, 5G & Mobile Strategies. Mike can be reached at [email protected], @mikeddano or on LinkedIn.

Based in Denver, Mike has covered the wireless industry as a journalist for almost two decades, first at RCR Wireless News and then at FierceWireless and recalls once writing a story about the transition from black and white to color screens on cell phones.

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