According to the financial analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets, the big cable operators in the US are poised to report their best quarter ever in the mobile industry.

"Cable is likely to take the largest SONA [share of net additions] ever, based on our estimates," the analysts wrote in a recent note to investors that outlines their expectations for the first quarter of 2023. "Cable's share of net [customer] adds is likely to reach an all-time high."

Specifically, the analysts predicted that the nation's three big cable operators offering mobile services – Comcast, Charter Communications and Altice USA – would collectively sign up 819,000 net wireless postpaid phone customers during the first quarter. The analysts estimated that Comcast would account for 364,000 of that figure, Charter with 445,000, and Altice the remaining 10,000.

Figure 1: (Source: Wave7 Research)

Collectively, the analysts said that the three cable companies would account for 49.1% of all net postpaid wireless customer additions in the first quarter. Meaning, they expect the cable companies to capture almost half of the customer growth in the US wireless market during the period.

The expectations don't come as much of a surprise. Since they entered the US wireless industry several years ago, Comcast, Charter and Altice have been working to grow their wireless operations with cheap, speedy service plans. Comcast and Charter offer mobile services over Verizon's wireless network, while Altice does so over T-Mobile's network.

To be clear, the market's three big wireless network operators – T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon – still command the lion's share of the overall wireless market. Collectively they enjoy a market share of around 95%, according to the KeyBanc analysts. But in terms of adding new customers to that base, they're increasingly fighting with MVNOs from Comcast, Charter and Altice.

Interestingly, the KeyBanc analysts expect Verizon to lose 88,000 postpaid wireless customers during the first quarter. Verizon struggled throughout last year with historic customer losses, prompting the company's CEO to overhaul his leadership team earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the KeyBanc analysts expect T-Mobile to gain 575,000 postpaid customers during the first quarter, and AT&T to gain 365,000 during the period.

Postpaid mobile users, which typically pay their monthly bills after receiving services, are considered the most valuable type of wireless customer. Prepaid customers, which pay prior to receiving services, often spend less on their monthly bill than postpaid customers. The KeyBanc analysts said they expect prepaid customers to continue to shift to postpaid plans, thus driving the overall growth in the number of postpaid customers in the US wireless industry.

AT&T appears scheduled to kick off the first quarter 2023 earnings season with plans to report its quarterly results on Thursday, April 20.

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— Mike Dano, Editorial Director, 5G & Mobile Strategies, Light Reading | @mikeddano