3G Japan: 69M Subs by 2007

TOKYO -- According to IDC Japan’s new study "Japan 3G Mobile Phone Service Forecast and Analysis 2002-2007" (# JP201201K), the 3G service market in Japan is expected to reach 69 million subscribers in 2007, and will account for 77.6% of the 88.9 million subscriptions in the entire cellular phone/PHS market. The 3G market is also expected to be worth 6,403.2 billion yen in terms of revenue, accounting for 81.4% of the total market revenue of 7,865.4 billion yen. The ratio of data communication charges in the total monthly usage fee for mobile phone services will increase to 26.1% in 2007.

“The development of 3G services has an enormous impact on related markets,” said Toshihiro Mishima, Communications Research Manager, IDC Japan. “Major service providers for cellular phone/PHS and consumer wireless LANs, as well as device vendors, content providers and ISPs, should gain new business opportunities by promoting necessary services and products for the upcoming 3G era.”

The entire cellular phone/PHS service market is expected to grow slightly from 2002 to 2007 with a compound annual growth rate of 2.4% in subscriptions, and 1.3% in revenue.

Mobile phone services in Japan are expected to start a full-scale transition from the conventional PDC (personal digital cellular), the country's unique second-generation (2G) system, to the third-generation (3G) system from the latter half of 2003 to 2004. This transition is already underway as service providers have begun to actively move PDC users towards 3G. KDDI (au) has already terminated PDC and is shifting to CDMA2000 1x. The company also plans to launch a wide-range of 3G data service, CDMA2000 1x EV-DO, in the fall of 2003. J-Phone is planning to provide both W-CDMA-type 3G service and GSM-type 2G service in Japan.

NTT DoCoMo is also likely to fully launch FOMA-based 3G from this fall. The telco is quickening its shift from PDC system to 3G and, being the current market leader in the PDC market, such a move is intensifying the market competition. As a result, IDC anticipates that Japan is likely to lead the worldwide 3G market.

The study, " Japan 3G Mobile Phone Service Forecast and Analysis 2002-2007" (# JP201201K), provides an analysis on the future cellular phone/PHS service market. The report also analyzes the strategies of each provider and sheds light on the challenges facing the relevant industries.

IDC Japan